Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-05 Version:8

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	303
Rep	235
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	271
Rep	191
Ind	0
Tos	76

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-56	26	2	303	-56
Rep	+3	+1	+56	0	0	0	22	2	179	+56
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
98	50	39	5	4

Analysis

11/5/2012--Final: Obama 303, Romney 206, Florida (29EV) too close, but probably Romney. Obama may win Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada by <5, but wins all three. Watch NC, NH, Iowa and Colorado, as one or more could surprise (the last three have anti-incumbent streaks). Obama becomes second incumbent since Wilson to win with less EV than his first election. Pop vote: Obama 51.1, Romney 47.9

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	6	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	26/36	58/72	80.6%	5	2	56	T	372
2016 President	50/56	30/56	80/112	71.4%	8	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	16/34	46/68	67.6%	4	0	252	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	3/12	12/24	50.0%	2	0	164	T	279
2014 Senate	31/36	22/36	53/72	73.6%	5	0	158	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	15/36	45/72	62.5%	3	1	145	T	300
2012 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	8	1	182	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	20/33	51/66	77.3%	6	1	94	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	2	1	5	T	228
2010 Senate	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	2	1	91	T	312
2008 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	7	0	139	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	1	0	96	T	407
2008 Dem Primary	31/52	14/52	45/104	43.3%	2	-	85	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	14/49	5/49	19/98	19.4%	1	-	162	T	235
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	4	0	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	16/36	51/72	70.8%	3	0	122	T	312
2004 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	30	2	14	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	632/734	408/734	1040/1468	70.8%