PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - DanR (D-NC) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-06 Version:3

Prediction Map
DanR MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
DanR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
104514355
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

At 31 days out this election map seems to be shaping up very much like the map from 2008. I really don't see Romney improving on McCain's popular vote percentage. In fact, I think he may have a slightly lower popular vote percentage than McCain.I do think Romney will pick up a couple states that McCain lost in 2008 though.

The electoral vote from the Nebraska 2nd Congressional District that Obama carried in 2008 will go to Romney this time. This will be due primarily to the redistricting that made it more Republican friendly.

Indiana seems to be reverting to form and looks like it will go Republican at the presidential level. I don't see anything that is likely to change that in the next month. Interestingly the Senate seat may flip as a result of the Republicans kicking Richard Lugar to the curb in favor of an odd duck teabagger. But even if that happens I don't think it will have an effect on the presidential race. Put Indiana's 11 Electoral votes in Romney's column.

The only other state that I see Romney winning that McCain lost is North Carolina. There is an outside chance that Obama could carry it again, but I'm just not feeling it. I need to see something happening that I saw four years ago that I haven't seen yet this year. It will be close (though probably not as close as last time) and for now I see it as an R pickup.

This election comes down to three states: Ohio, Florida and Virginia. There is a reason that half the advertising money spent by both campaigns and by the outside groups supporting them has been spent in just these three states. The problem for Romney is that he has to win all three of them and he's behind in all of them. And if he pulls off the miracle and wins all three (highly improbable) he is still short. He needs these three plus Iowa or New Hampshire perhaps. It's one hell of a hill to climb for him to get to 270 electoral votes.

It's time to place your bets on Obama winning re-election.


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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 2 0 409T
P 2014 Senate 30/36 16/36 46/72 63.9% pie 1 160 273T
P 2012 President 56/56 48/56 104/112 92.9% pie 3 31 13T
P 2012 Senate 31/33 23/33 54/66 81.8% pie 1 3 40T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 19/37 53/74 71.6% pie 4 1 167T
P 2008 President 55/56 40/56 95/112 84.8% pie 3 26 100T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 16/33 49/66 74.2% pie 2 49 144T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 2 4 20T
P 2004 President 53/56 29/56 82/112 73.2% pie 10 1 1036T
Aggregate Predictions 372/396 244/396 616/792 77.8% pie



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