Election 2012 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-10-23 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

Confidence States Won

State Pick-ups

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Member Comments

By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2012-10-23 @ 12:12:44
My best-case Romney win

By: Snigglie (R-AL) 2012-10-23 @ 13:38:18
I think his best case could be better. In a wave election, Romney would likely win Nevada and have a shot at Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and/or New Mexico.

By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2012-10-23 @ 17:05:48
You could very well be right. I'm calling 235 Romney's base and 237 Obama's, but we'll have to see where the next two weeks will take us. This has indeed turned out to be an exciting campaign season. I felt pretty bold giving Romney Ohio and Wisconsin.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2012-10-23 @ 18:21:53
you are bold since both are still in Obama's camp by almost every poll I have seen. After this last debate we might have a small Obama boomlet (1-2% which would give him the lead in some of the swing states....most difficult are North Carolina, Florida and then Virginia and COlorado....all these I oculd see going to Romney easily...Iowa is tougher as more people have already voted there and if polls are right heavily for Obama...

By: auburntiger (I-FL) 2012-10-26 @ 12:28:22
Thanks for your analyss, dnul. Two reasons I feel like Romney will win is 1) the economy is the most important issue on people's minds. 2) only in 1916 did a sitting president win re-election to a 2nd term with fewer electoral votes than the 1st; however, there has not been one that I know of where a president gets fewer popular votes AND electoral votes and still wins. I had said on an a thread earlier maybe back in september where we're most likely to see a narrow Obama loss or a bigger Obama win. That was before the first debate had happened. I know that state polls are all over the place right now, but nationally, romney has been at 50% in quite a few whereas Obama has not. I'm not saying that anyone has this thing in the bag, as you look at my tossups.

By: CR (--MO) 2012-10-26 @ 23:43:46
This would be the map I'd prefer to see on election night. It's my hope actually. I'd be feeling pretty good come November 7th. We'll see.

By: WhyteRain (I-TX) 2012-10-27 @ 10:18:20
NH and VA will be among the earliest reporting states. If, as this map shows, the same candidate (Romney in this case) wins BOTH, then I think you can turn off the TV and go to bed. P.S. We HAVE to get rid of "early voting". Voters should make their decisions with us all having the SAME information.

User's Predictions