PredictionsMock2012 Presidential Predictions - Political Lefty (D-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:2

Prediction Map
Political Lefty MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Political Lefty MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem332
 
Rep206
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem275
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos73
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem000-2-1-27272332-27
Rep+2+1+27000222179+27
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
105514455
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

I don't have any surprises here compared to the conventional wisdom. I'm pretty confident in how most of the toss-ups will eventually vote. However, Florida and North Carolina give me the most trouble. I think they'll be the closest and both could go either way. It'll all come down to the ground game and how strong the organizations are, which could very well end up giving President Obama a higher electoral count (the realistic max being 347-348). At the least, I see the President matching President Bush's popular vote margin from 2004, probably right around a 3% lead or so.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 47/56 27/56 74/112 66.1% pie 1 0 473T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 21/34 51/68 75.0% pie 1 0 60T
P 2016 Governor 9/12 4/12 13/24 54.2% pie 1 0 119T
P 2014 Governor 30/36 19/36 49/72 68.1% pie 1 0 56T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 0 17T
P 2012 President 56/56 49/56 105/112 93.8% pie 2 0 4T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 1 0 2T
P 2012 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 0 24T
P 2010 Senate 36/37 30/37 66/74 89.2% pie 1 0 4
P 2010 Governor 35/37 28/37 63/74 85.1% pie 2 0 11T
P 2008 President 53/56 49/56 102/112 91.1% pie 7 1 3T
P 2008 Senate 33/33 24/33 57/66 86.4% pie 4 1 9T
P 2008 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 2 1 9T
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 101 58T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 16/33 46/66 69.7% pie 1 184 257T
P 2006 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 2 160 107T
Aggregate Predictions 451/486 331/486 782/972 80.5% pie



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