I don't have any surprises here compared to the conventional wisdom. I'm pretty confident in how most of the toss-ups will eventually vote. However, Florida and North Carolina give me the most trouble. I think they'll be the closest and both could go either way. It'll all come down to the ground game and how strong the organizations are, which could very well end up giving President Obama a higher electoral count (the realistic max being 347-348). At the least, I see the President matching President Bush's popular vote margin from 2004, probably right around a 3% lead or so.