Mostly just moved states off the "leaner" category into "strong" New Mexico moved to strong Obama, Missouri moved to strong Romney, Indiana moved to strong Romney.

Tossups remain Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, and Virgnia. My suspicion is that Obama wins 4 of those 5 for 303 electoral votes, but any outcome from a narrow 257-281 Romney win to a somewhat convincing 330-208 Obama win remains plausible.

I still maintain Obama's strength amongst hispanics and the difficulty of polling Hispanic voters (in fact the most likely ones to be supporting Obama, though perhaps least likely to turn out) will lead Obama to out-perform polls in Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico. That means Obama only needs one of the remaining 4 tossup states to win the election. My suspicion is that if Obama wins Iowa, that indicates a level of support amongst upper-midwest middle class white voters that will carry him over the finish line in Ohio. Virginia may follow, but maintains considerable southern character that will likely lead white voters in Virginia to be less supportive of Obama than white voters in Ohio or Iowa. This election is winnable for Romney, but difficult, a low turnout election probably being Romney's best chance to win.

I'll update again if I feel the need, but I think it's likely that this will be my last update before election day.