Do I know what will happen? Of course not.

Romney's win in South Carolina ought to give him the momentum to win Florida; Nevada seems like a given at this point.

Taking a stab at a prediction for South Carolina; the polls there are all old, unfortunately, so it's not really possible to take those into account. It looks like vote-splitting there between Gingrich (who'll be putting all his eggs into that basket), Santorum (the new far-right media darling), and the others will allow Romney to win without capturing anywhere near a majority of the vote.

I'm a bit more confident about the other states; at this point the polls are showing what I've suspected, that Paul's support won't hold up, and the explosion of Santorum looks like too little, too late. With New Hampshire, the only thing I'm unsure about is whether Romney will break 40%.

I'm shifting Iowa to Romney; Paul may lead in the polls, but Romney leads among old people and Republicans, who are the sort of people who actually participate in Republican caucuses. I doubt Paul's support will materialize.

As ridiculous as it is, everyone except Rasmussen has Ron Paul winning Iowa. I don't get it, either. Romney won't come close to a majority in New Hampshire, but it's Strong Romney anyway because nobody else has a snowball's chance in hell. I'm not even going to try any of the other states right now.