Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-02-27 Version:11

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	7
Romney	38
Paul	0
Santorum	7
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	5
Romney	35
Paul	0
Santorum	4
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	8

Analysis

Romney will win both states tomorrow night. He will win with a large margin in Arizona that will be projected shortly after the polls are closed. Michigan will be a nail-biter, but Romney will win in the end.

FINAL ARIZONA PREDICTION

Romney---------43.4%
Santorum-------28.2%
Gingrich-------16.3%
Paul-----------11.9%
Other----------0.2%

FINAL MICHIGAN PREDICTION

Romney---------38.2%
Santorum-------36.3%
Gingrich-------13.8%
Paul-----------11.6%
Other----------0.1%

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: BYUmormon (R-UT) 2012-02-28 @ 14:30:09
I really like your predictions for Arizona and Michigan, but I don't know about Gingrich winning Texas by 70%, or Romney winning Arkansas by 80%. If I were you I'd also put a little more confidence in Santorum. You could be right though, we'll just have to see if Gingrich comes back in the south, and if Santorum will remain a threat to Romney.

By: PoliticalJunkie (I-WI) 2012-03-05 @ 18:03:09
BYUmormon- My predictions for late states are something I haven't gotten around to updating yet, but I really should get to fixing them-- I usually don't fix until the day before the primary. Thank you for reminding me. Last Edit: 2012-03-05 @ 18:15:35

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	10	1	115	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	22/33	53/66	80.3%	4	1	56	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	5/11	15/22	68.2%	3	1	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	48/52	29/52	77/104	74.0%	26	-	1		231
2010 Senate	33/37	26/37	59/74	79.7%	26	1	63	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	10	1	29	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	7	1	1	T	103
2008 President	53/56	48/56	101/112	90.2%	20	1	6	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	14	0	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	3	1	50	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	38/52	17/52	55/104	52.9%	19	-	61	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	40/49	7/49	47/98	48.0%	10	-	64	T	235
2007 Governor	3/3	0/3	3/6	50.0%	1	105	135	T	167
Aggregate Predictions	391/432	257/432	648/864	75.0%

Links

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