The long primary--a prediction snapshot post-SC and pre-Florida. This prediction assumes that Gingrich maintains electoral strength and does not fizzle out and assumes Newt Gingrich wins Florida and continues to show strength with tea-party conservatives. He is expected to do well throughout the South and Midwest.

Even if Romney is beaten in Florida, he retains several regional advantages to bolster his cash and establishment support.

The West

Romney will likely do well in Nevada, though the delegates form the caucus/conventions are proportional so he won't get much of a delegate victory and Romney could cause some trouble.

He can ride Mormon support to victory in UT, ID, MT, WY, AZ, NM, and to a lesser extent, in WA, CO and OR. There, he should also be helped by wealthy and moderate GOPers in the Seattle/Portland/Denver suburbs. CO could be a problem, though, because there are lots of poor/middle class evangelical/conservative GOP primary voters that could bolster Gingrich.

Gingrich, in this prediction, can make inroads in California with the large number of movement onservative GOPers in the Central Valley, Inland Empire. Romney and Gingrich would likely split Orange and San Diego County Republicans. Romney would likely win GOP support in the urban centers. If Gingrich were to win CA, that could determine the nominee.

Romney would probably win Hawaii--the moderate GOPers there are likely not birthers, plus there are lots of Mormons in the state. I give Alaska to Gingrich thanks to tea party/Palin support. That could go either way.

The Midwest

This prediction presumes Gingrich wins every state except Michigan, which could be a surprisingly close ballot if Gingrich remains strong. Though Gingrich is not on the primary ballot in Missouri, I think he's on the caucus ballot, when delegates are awarded. Illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan are expected to be battlegrounds.

The South

Gingrich is predicted to sweep (except Virginia, lol), picking up very large margins in the deep-South who vote for the Southern bomb-thrower over the yankee Mormon. Other than Florida, the only other states expected to be close are West Virginia and Arkansas, where many of the poorer folks are still registered Democrats and the GOP party continues to be for the country club set, plus WV is partly in the DC orbit where Romney is favored.

The Northeast

Romney is expected to easily sweep his home turf in New England. Ron Paul could be a little bit of trouble in Maine, though. New York may be close--Gingrich may have some appeal to the base there, but Romney remains favored. Delaware and Maryland could be battlegrounds, pitting suburban (and Washington-based) Romney supporters against the "Southern" parts of the state. Same with Delaware.

End Prediction: No-holds barred battle but Gingrich and the tea party eek out a delegate win...

Note: Prediction is not long-term and only good until "Establishment" releases the Kracken on Gingrich.