Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2011-09-10 Version:1

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	0
Romney	29
Paul	1
Santorum	0
Cain	0
Perry	22
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	0
Romney	0
Paul	0
Santorum	0
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	52

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
30	26	4

Analysis

This is how it could play out in state races, just from reading local newspapers and gut feeling

I feel Perry will win Iowa this year, followed by a Romney win followed by a Perry win then a Romney win a 2-2 split...

Romney nevada and NHampshire
Perry South Carolina and Iowa

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2011-09-10 @ 18:10:54
I really feel that this is basically a two man race with a lot of unresolved baggage of the also rans...will it change..possibly BUT with Perry leading Iowa and Romney NH followed by a SOuth Carolina win by Perry followed by a probable win by ROmney in Mormon Nevada I feel the early cycle will only cement this..

By: CR (--MO) 2011-09-10 @ 22:48:32
All really in that case it all comes down to Florida, a very important new GOP primary state. However, a strong second place showing by Perry in New Hampshire and an upset in Nevada could change all that. So could a lot of other things I suppose.

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2011-09-12 @ 15:52:56
Hey CR I see Jindahl to endorse Perry while good old Pawlenty to endorse ROmney...I think I would rather have the Jindahl endorsement... Yes it will come down to Florida in my mind too...interesting

By: albaleman (D-MN) 2011-09-12 @ 17:45:41
Florida has become lean Romney due to Perry's comments on Social Security. I think Perry could definitely win the nomination without it, though it would be close.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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