Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	4
Romney	37
Paul	2
Santorum	9
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	3
Romney	37
Paul	1
Santorum	7
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	4

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
65	43	22

Analysis

Dropped IN to 60% and WV/NC to 50% for Romney.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 36

Downgraded PA to 50% and NY to 60%.

Version: 35

Updated now that Santorum dropped out:

State Previous Current
CT R50S R70S
DE R50S R70S
NY R40S R70S
PA R30S R60S
RI R50S R70S
IN R40L R70S
NC R40L R60S
WV S40L R70S
NE S30L R70S
OR R50S R70S
AR S40L R70S
KY S40L R70S
TX R40S R60S
CA R50S R70S
MT R40L R60S
NJ R50S R70S
NM R50L R70S
SD R40L R70S
UT R80S R90S

Version: 34

State Previous Current
DE R40S R50S
PA S40S R30L
RI R40S R50S
IN R50L R40L
NC S40L R40S
WV S40S S40L
TX S30L R40S
NJ R40S R50S
UT R70S R80S

Version: 33

Changed DC to 70% for Romney.

Version: 32

Changed DC and WI to strong for Romney and bumped DC up to 50%.

Also changed NE from tossup to lean for Santorum.

Version: 31

State Previous Current
DC R40T R50L
WI S40S R40L
NY R30S R40S
OR R40L R50S
CA R30S R50S
UT R60S R70S

Version: 30

Changed LA to strong for Santorum.

Version: 29

Changed IL to strong

Version: 28

Changed PR to 50% Strong for Romney.

Version: 27

Changed PR to lean Romney

Version: 26

Changed AL and MS to Gingrich. Changed AL to tossup though.

Version: 25

Updated KS to lean for Santorum.

Version: 24

Changed ID to strong for Romney and ND to Romney.

Changed TN to Lean

Version: 23

State Previous Current
OH S30S R30L
TN S40S S30S
AK S30T P30T
ND R30L S30T
VA R60S R70S

Version: 22

Post-Washington update for Super Tuesday:

State Previous Current
GA G30S G40S
ND S30T R30L
TN S30T S40S
VA R70S R60S
HI R40L R40T
PR R50L R40T
LA R40L S40L
WI S30S S40S
AR S40T S40L
KY S40T S40L

Version: 21

Switched WA to lean for Santorum with 30%.

Version: 20

Changed MI over to Santorum tossup for 40%

Version: 19

Switched MI to Lean for Romney

Version: 18

State Previous Current
WY R50T R40S
WA R30L S40S
OH S30T S30S
OK R30L S40S
TN S30T S30L
AL R30T S30L
MS G30T S30L
TX R30L S30L
WI S30T S30S
PA R30T S40S
NC R30S S40L
WV R50L S40L
SD R60L R40L

Version: 17

State Previous Current
AZ R50S R40S
MI R50S R30S
GA G40S G30S
OH R30L S30T
AL G40T R30T
MS G40T G30T
DC R60L R40T
MD R70S R50S
TX R40L R30L
WI R40L S30T
CT R60S R50S
DE R60S R40S
NY R50S R30S
PA R40L R30T
RI R50S R40S
NC R50L R30S
NE R50L S30T
OR R50L R40L
AR R50L S40T
KY R50L S40T
CA R50L R30S
MT R60L R40L
NJ R60L R40S
UT R70S R60S

Version: 16

Changed Maine from Romney 40%L to Paul 40%L.

Version: 15

Updated for now. I may add more Santorum states as time goes on:

State Previous Current
MI R70S R40S
AK G30T S30T
MA R80S R60S
OK R40L R30L
TN G30L S30T
VA R60S R70S
KS R50L S40T
WY R60L R50T
MO G30T S40S

Version: 13

State Previous CurrentrnMN R40S S30LrnPR R60L R50LrnAZ R70S R50SrnMI R70S R40SrnWA R70L R30LrnAK R70L G30TrnGA R80L G40SrnID R80L R40LrnMA R80S R50SrnND R70L S30TrnOH R70L R30LrnOK R70L R40LrnTN R70L G30LrnVT R80L R40SrnVA R70L G30SrnKS R70L R50LrnWY R70L R60LrnAL R70L G40TrnHI R70L R40LrnMS R70L G40TrnMO R70L G30TrnIL R70L R40LrnLA R70L R40LrnMD R70S R50SrnTX R60L R40LrnWI R70L R40LrnCT R80S R60SrnDE R80S R60SrnNY R80S R50SrnPA R70L R40LrnRI R80S R50SrnIN R70L R60LrnNC R70L R50LrnWV R70L R50LrnNE R80L R50LrnOR R80L R50LrnAR R70L R50LrnKY R70L R50LrnCA R70L R50LrnMT R70L R60LrnNJ R70L R60LrnNM R70L R50LrnSD R80L R60LrnUT R90S R70S

Version: 12

Changed NV to 50% for Romney and Maine down to 40%L for Romney.

Version: 11

Changed FL from Romney 30L to 40S.

Version: 10

Changed SC from tossup to strong for Gingrich

Version: 9

Changed SC from 30%S for Romney to 30%T for Gingrich and FL to 30%L from 30%S for Romney.

Version: 8

Updated my SC and FL predictions (and corrected MN, which I thought I'd done earlier).

Version: 7

Changed NH back to 40% for Romney.

Version: 6

Switched NH down to 30% for Romney in my final prediction.

Version: 5

Changed IA over to Santorum.

Version: 4

Updated for pre-Iowa. It'll probably change after Iowa, but if Romney pulls off the win, I see him as surging ahead.

Version: 3

Changed FL to lean Romney instead of tossup

Version: 1

Not too sure about the later states. It's hard to tell whether or not Perry will drop and when, so this may change a bit to have Romney winning more late states.

Version History

37: 2012-05-04 @ 14:31:52 36: 2012-04-24 @ 15:35:45 35: 2012-04-10 @ 14:58:55 34: 2012-04-04 @ 19:30:07 33: 2012-04-03 @ 03:16:19 32: 2012-04-01 @ 04:20:24 31: 2012-03-25 @ 03:38:25 30: 2012-03-23 @ 16:17:36 29: 2012-03-20 @ 10:47:50 28: 2012-03-18 @ 01:50:57 27: 2012-03-16 @ 16:35:20 26: 2012-03-13 @ 01:09:16 25: 2012-03-08 @ 22:28:49 24: 2012-03-06 @ 04:12:46 23: 2012-03-05 @ 18:49:22 22: 2012-03-04 @ 02:18:40 21: 2012-03-03 @ 02:23:03 20: 2012-02-28 @ 00:45:12 19: 2012-02-27 @ 14:39:19 18: 2012-02-25 @ 22:37:51 17: 2012-02-15 @ 14:54:06 16: 2012-02-10 @ 17:21:51 15: 2012-02-09 @ 00:45:53 14: 2012-02-07 @ 08:59:50 13: 2012-02-05 @ 17:11:28 12: 2012-02-03 @ 01:51:40 11: 2012-01-26 @ 11:35:39 10: 2012-01-21 @ 00:19:45 9: 2012-01-19 @ 14:47:09 8: 2012-01-11 @ 21:40:32 7: 2012-01-10 @ 10:58:24 6: 2012-01-09 @ 21:53:18 5: 2012-01-03 @ 05:57:26 4: 2011-12-31 @ 03:46:08 3: 2011-11-02 @ 14:12:56 2: 2011-10-21 @ 01:27:08 1: 2011-09-20 @ 19:06:08 View Version