Gingrich is dropping out and Ron Paul just doesn't have the stuff. Romney has the nomination all locked up.

Mitt Romney is the nominee of the Republican Party in 2012.

Newt Gingrich may gain a slight advantage in a couple of southern states with Santorum out but not enough to alter the outcome of the contest.

This is pretty much what I think the end will look like but I'm sure I'll have to adjust it as the race moves on.

All things considered at this moment, and nothing is final, I think that Mitt Romney is probably going to gain the nomination just before June.

This is pretty much what I think the end will look like but I'm sure I'll have to adjust it as the race moves on.

All things considered at this moment, and nothing is final, I think that Mitt Romney is probably going to gain the nomination just before June.

Rest if the March contests.

Mitt Romney vs. Rick Santorum vs. New Gingrich vs. Ron Paul

Best guess I can come up with. The race and the GOP are so fractured I really don't know what to expect. Santorum takes the Midwest and Heartland, Gingrich the deep South, and Romney the West and Northeast.

This map assumes all four candidates remain until June.

Best guess. Santorum strong in the Midwest, Gingrich in the South, and Romney does well in the Northeast, West, and a few other spots like Florida and Illinois.

The race rolls on all the way till June with Romney just barely scrapping by. Given how complicated the delegate system is right now this could also produce no winner at all and thus a brokered convention. A lot will depend on what Gingrich and Santorum do. If one fades the other will be the conservative choice and Romney will be finished.

Of course given my current track record none of this is probably right.

Races updated based most current polling data.

Updated primary map through the rest of February. Obviously subject to change.

Percentage in Florida updated to reflect polling.

Updating map based on polling data. Romney looks to be edging out Newt Gingrich in Florida.

We are in uncharted territory these days. All three of the early GOP voting states chose a different candidate - Santorum in Iowa, Romney in New Hampshire, and Gingrich in South Carolina. Normally the winner of South Carolina goes on to be the nominee of the party, however, historically that candidate has also won either Iowa or New Hampshire. That is not the case this year.

So we arrive at Florida, a state that is as perfect a microcosm of the national Republican Party/conservative movement as you are likely to find. It has all the major GOP voting blocks. For years Florida has tried to be the kingmaker in the Republican nominating process and in 2012 it may just take that role on.

At this point in time all the signs point to Gingrich having the momentum going into the Florida primary.

The primaries roll on....

Well as the field narrows Mitt Romney is gaining more and more traction. His double wins in Iowa and New Hampshire have given him what appears to be quite a bit of momentum if the current polling is accurate. With Gingrich, Santorum, and Perry (Paul too to some extent) dividing the conservative base in South Carolina it looks like Mitt could build a winning coalition there too. If he does win South Carolina he'll most likely win Florida. After that I'd say this race is pretty much over.

Final map prediction prior to the Iowa caucus. I don't feel comfortable assigning outcomes to the rest of the races until I know how Iowa and New Hampshire vote. That will set the stage in terms of momentum for the top candidates coming out of the earliest states but before heading into the two most important states of the cycle - South Carolina and Florida.

Right now based on the current polling (Des Moines Register in particular), comments made by Congressman Steve King (a key conservative voice in Iowa), and other data I'd say Mitt Romney looks to be in a strong position unless Santorum or one of the other more conservative candidates makes a dramatic surge. In this race, it could happen.

This race is so crazy and volatile I have no idea what is going to happen. I really can't do the rest of the map until I see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire. That will set up the top candidates and determine who has momentum.

Its possible at this point that Mitt Romney could win Iowa with a divided base struggling to choose between Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul. If he does that and then locks up New Hampshire as he looks able to do then he'll be very strong heading into South Carolina and Florida. We'll see. Its going to be an interesting month.

Newt Gingrich vs. Mitt Romney

Assumptions made for this map:

1. Bachmann drops out after Iowa

2. Huntsman drops out after New Hampshire

3. Cain drops out after South Carolina if he hasn't left the race before the primaries even begin.

4. Santorium drops out after Florida

5. Romney stays in until the very end but the GOP electorate strongly shifts to Gingrich who would have the momentum after winning Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida.

6. Ron Paul never goes away

Mitt Romney vs. Newt Gingrich

Romney verse Anti-Romney Candidate

This primary contest is continuing to be very volatile and unpredictable. In this respect it is much like 2008. However, it is clear that Mitt Romney is currently the candidate to beat in terms of establishment backing, money, organization, and debate performance. He is be by no means certain but he is clearly one of the strongest contenders. And why not, he's been running since 2008.

At this point it is a matter of who will be the conservative alternative to Mitt. The anti-Romney if you will. That individual has yet to emerge and my not emerge until the first votes are cast. We seen many incarnations to date - Bachmann, Perry, and Cain. Maybe Gingrich will rise next or Perry could become resurgent (he certainly has the money and campaign despite terrible debate performances). But until that candidate arises I keep this map which is Romney verse as yet unknown anti-Romney. It is also conceivable that no one anti-Romney will emerge and instead the conservative base will be split between two or more candidates (again like 2008).

As of right now I still think that Florida is the key to the entire process. Regardless, Mitt looks to win New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, and Michigan. He ought to do well in the Mountain West, Northeast, and Rust Belt. I also expect a strong showing in California and Arizona. He will struggle in the South, southern Plains, and maybe Missouri. Certain Iowa will be a challenge.

Thursday's awful FOXNews/Google GOP debate showed me that this race is still wide open and very fluid. The clear winners were Cain and Gingrich in my mind while the in-fighting of the top tier got tiresome. Romney looked fine but was neutral while Perry stumbled. Anything can happen and no votes will be cast for months.

So in keeping with that I'll stick with a map that reflects that indecision (as I myself remain an undecided primary voter). For now Rick Perry remains strong in Iowa and South Carolina while Mitt Romney sits comfortable in New Hampshire. No real surprises there.

I think the key to this year's nomination is a new up and coming GOP primary state - Florida. The state is very diverse and a good microcosm of the national GOP. It was pivotal for McCain in 2008 and could become key in future nomination battles. This year I think who ever wins Florida will win the momentum necessary to capture the nomination. That is why I have it darkened on this map to mark its importance.

This is one way it could play out if it came down to a true two man race between Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Each has candidate has his own strengths to start off with thanks to the primary schedule's current setup and it assumes that both stay end until the very end.

In this case Cain, Gingrich, Santorum, etc. drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire while Bachmann sticks around till probably after South Carolina. Perry wins a number of caucus where conservative party faithful are likely to show up while Romney plays well in regional areas that are strongly suited to his candidacy.

In this case Governor Perry emerges as the victor and the nominee. However, its still far too early to tell much of anything and a lot of what happens will depend on who gains momentum from the early voting states.

This is a mid-range analysis of the GOP primary as it stands today. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney have emerged as the two main rival groups with Ron Paul bring up the libertarian support. Bachmann hangs around long enough to win her home state and not much else. Afterward she quickly drops out. Perry's strong showings in Iowa and South Carolina give him momentum (along with a decent second place in New Hampshire). Romney hangs around long enough to win a number of the mid-Atlantic to New England primaries but drops out after that sometime in April leaving Perry the only serious candidate left to mop up the remaining contests.