Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-05-29 Version:49

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	5
Romney	39
Paul	1
Santorum	7
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	2
Romney	32
Paul	0
Santorum	3
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	15

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
70	46	24

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

A small victory for Santorum in Iowa, with Paul and Romney within 2 points behind him. Gingrich is badly wounded, Perry is almost finished, like Bachmann.

Big win for Romney in NH. Paul is happy to go on...
Santorum wins Minnesota in a very divided landscape there.

Perry is out after SC, where Gingrich's victory is very small.

Romney can be viewed as the nominee when he wins in Florida. But Gingrich keeps on until Texas, where Romney beats him with a slim margin. Gingrich then drops out.

Hence, Romney is able to win Arkansas, Santorum to win PA and Paul to win KY.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	51/56	25/56	76/112	67.9%	22	0	409	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	17/34	47/68	69.1%	7	6	213	T	362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	4	6	25	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	36	72	T	112
2014 Senate	33/36	21/36	54/72	75.0%	2	0	138	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	18/36	48/72	66.7%	2	0	73	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	0/2	2/4	50.0%	2	69	98	T	153
2012 President	55/56	46/56	101/112	90.2%	26	4	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	15/33	47/66	71.2%	11	3	164	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	9	4	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	46/52	24/52	70/104	67.3%	49	-	5	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	1	277	37	T	106
2010 Senate	33/37	17/37	50/74	67.6%	13	0	221	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	16/37	50/74	67.6%	10	0	168	T	312
2009 Governor	0/2	0/2	0/4	0.0%	2	15	101	T	103
2008 President	53/56	41/56	94/112	83.9%	44	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	15/33	47/66	71.2%	13	6	204	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	7	6	152	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	19/52	11/52	30/104	28.8%	5	-	150	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	18/49	7/49	25/98	25.5%	3	-	141	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	503/612	291/612	794/1224	64.9%

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