Predictions2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - tmthforu94 (I-KS) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2012-06-05 Version:43

Prediction Map
tmthforu94 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
tmthforu94 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich4
 
Romney45
 
Paul0
 
Santorum3
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich4
 
Romney36
 
Paul0
 
Santorum2
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
Tossup10
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
654322
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 38

On April 24th, Romney sweeps the Northeast, including Pennsylvania.

The following day, Rick Santorum withdraws from the race, but stops short of endorsing Romney, saying "I will support the eventual nominee."

Romney easily wins in IN, NC, and WV against Gingrich and Paul, and two days after, Gingrich suspends his campaign and endorses Romney.

Paul stays in until after the June 5th primaries. He then withdraws from the race, promising to continue his campaign for liberty and help make sure Obama is not reelected.


Version: 29

My guess is Romney would narrowly win in delegates.


Version: 23

Unfortunately, it looks like Gingrich will take South Carolina. He won't have as much luck in Florida, methinks.


Version: 22

A scenario where Gingrich holds out for a bit longer...

Gingrich barrages Romney with ads in South Carolina, and, unlike Iowa, other candidates gang up on Romney, rather than Gingrich. Gingrich scores a South Carolina win with 30%, followed by Romney, then Paul. That evening, Rick Perry withdraws from the race, saying he will support whoever wins the nomination.

Florida is seen as a crucial state, though Romney's organization and money proves to be the difference maker, as he defeats Gingrich here 38%-30%. Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman both drop out, and it's down to Gingrich, Romney and Paul.

Romney is seen as having the momentum, and leads Gingrich by 7 points nationally, 39%-32%-19%. Once again, thanks to a massive organization edge, Romney is able to rack up several caucus wins in February. Paul came close to Romney is several of them, but still wasn't able to win one. Gingrich tries to underscore the caucuses as much as possible, instead focusing on early March primaries. He is able to take somewhat of an upset over Romney in Arizona, winning the state 43-40-15.

On March 6th, Gingrich is able to get solid victories in Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. Romney narrowly wins Ohio, the only state considered to be hotly contested, and his camp claims victory.

The process continues, with Gingrich's next wins coming in Alabama and Mississippi, though the size of his win were underwhelming. At this point, 74% of Republicans believe Mitt will be the nominee, and he leads Gingrich in polling 47-32- 18. Gingrich supporters claim Paul is a spoiler, though polls continue to show his supporters pretty split between Gingrich and Romney.

Mitt Romney gets nice victories in Missouri and Illinois, but the "nail in the coffin" for Gingrich came on March 24th with the Louisiana primary. Gingrich expected to win the state, had a lead of around 8 points in polls there, and was even campaigning in Texas on the night of the primary. Mitt Romney stunned Gingrich, edging him by just a few thousand votes. This is seen as a campaign-ending blow to Gingrich, though he vows to remain in until after the Texas primary before making a decision.

On April 3rd, Mitt Romney becomes the presumptive nominee. Romney gets huge victories in Maryland and D.C., places Gingrich didn't even both. He won both Wisconsin and Texas by large margins. The biggest surprise was Texas, where Paul only lost to Gingrich by a couple hundred votes for 2nd. That evening, Newt Gingrich formally suspended his campaign. He held off an endorsement for Romney until June, citing that the number one goal should still be to defeat Obama.

Paul stays in a while longer, but unlike 2008, where he was largely seen as a joke candidate, more pressure was put on him to drop out, and after being promised a speaking convention (as well as other things regarding his sons future), Paul drops out of the race.


Version: 21

Changed NH to 30%

Guess:
Romney - 37%
Huntsman - 22%
Paul - 15%
Gingrich - 11%
Santorum - 9%
Roemer - 3%
Perry - 2%
Others - 1%


Version: 20

Just adjusted with some later percentages. Meh.


Version: 19

Agh! I have no clue on Iowa. This is a guess. All local media in Iowa are saying Romney has the edge, so I'm trusting them.


Version: 18

Still unsure on Iowa. Right now, I'm leaning towards Santourm, but I think either him or Romney will win this.


Version: 17

Without trying to sound like a complete hack, I think it's very hard to see Romney not winning the nomination at this point. Gingrich will need to win both South Carolina and Florida, and in order to do that, he needs a strong showing in IA and NH, which isn't looking likely.

Ron Paul narrowly edges out Romney in the Iowa Caucus, and Romney plays up his showing, as many didn't expect him to perform so well. Santorum finished a strong 3rd, followed by Perry, Ginrich, and Bachmann. Following the Iowa Caucus, Bachmann withdrew from the race.

Mitt Romney dominated the New Hampshire primary, winning with just over 40% of the vote. Huntsman came in second with just 19%, followed by Paul. Following the results, Huntsman withdrew, and endorsed Romney.

A big push was made for South Carolina, where Romney was hoping for the knockout punch. After a nice endorsement from Demint the week before, Romney narrowly defeated Gingrich. Perry withdrew from the race at this point. Santorum also bowed out of the race, after finishing in dead last in South Carolina.

With establishment backing, Mitt Romney won Florida with 37% of the vote, with Gingrich not too far behind. Gingrich withdrew from the race at this point, and endorsed Romney, saying he's the only candidate left who can defeat Barack Obama. He then proceeds to begin campaigning with Governor Romney.

The race is down to Paul and Romney, and at this point, the establishment rallies behind Romney, and he also benefits from endorsements from Bachmann, Perry, and Palin. Santorum abstains from endorsing. Romney comfortably wins all remaining primaries, and while Paul makes it close in several caucuses, isn't able to win any. He drops out in early May.


Version: 16

Scenario:

In mid-December, Gingrich started to collapse, and by Christmas Day, Romney had a small lead on Gingrich. Romney was essentially tied with Gingrich in Iowa while posting huge leads in New Hampshire. He had also brought South Carolina and Florida into play, as Gingrich was only leading in both states by around 5 points.

On December 30th, Governor Terry Branstead endorsed Mitt Romney, and spent the remaining days touring the state with Romney. Romney flooded the airwaves in Iowa with primarily pro-Romney, anti-Obama advertising. It became a complete tossup race between Romney, Perry, Gingrich, and Paul. Santorum and Bachmann are also within striking distance.

On January 3rd, Romney solidified his status as a frontrunner by narrowly winning the Iowa caucus with just 25% of the vote. Paul narrowly followed with 23%, followed by Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich, and Santorum. That night, both Santorum and Bachmann dropped out of the race.

On January 10th, Romney won the New Hampshire primary with approximately 41% of the vote. Huntsman place second with 22%, followed by Paul. Gingrich took a miserable fourth place, and Perry finished 5th. After not coming too close in New Hampshire, Huntsman dropped out of the race.

South Carolina became a three-way race between Perry, Gingrich, and Romney. Many were encouraging either Perry or Gingrich to drop out so the right could unite behind one candidate, but with both essentially tied for 2nd in national polling, neither budged.

Fox News National Poll (January 15th)
Romney: 32%
Gingrich: 23%
Perry: 22%
Paul: 19%

On January 19th, just days before the South Carolina primary, Demint, who had previously said he would not make an endorsement, was caught by a camera saying he would be voting for Romney. While Demint did not formally endorse Romney, this was seen as a momentum boost for Romney.

Romney won the South Carolina primary, thanks to a split in the conservative vote. Romney received 29% of the vote, with Perry at 25%, Gingrich at 24%, and Paul at 19%. Exit polls, however, showed that in a head to head matchup, Perry led Romney 48-46%, while Gingrich tied Romney at 49%.

The campaign next went to Florida, where many believed Romney would become the presumptive nominee with a victory. Polls had shown Gingrich leading for quite a while, but that lead had evaporated.

PPP - Florida (January 26th)
Gingrich - 24%
Romney - 23%
Perry - 20%
Paul - 18%

Romney and Perry flooded the airwaves in the final days, and their financial advantage played dividends. Many also felt that the state party was pushing for Romney to get the nomination, with many leaders in Florida, such as Senatorial candidate Connie Mack and Governor Rick Scott (this is seen by some as more of a negative). Marco Rubio also comes out and endorses Mitt Romney. This was expected by many, as Romney came out earlier in the 2010 Senate race to endorse Rubio.

On January 31st, Romney essentially became the presumptive nominee, winning Florida with approximately 28% of the vote. Perry was right behind in second with 26%. Gingrich, the frontrunner just a month ago, took a disappointing fourth place finish. Following Florida, Gingrich suspended his campaign.

Around this time, seeing that he was probably going to be the nominee, both Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman endorse Romney for President. Santorum continues to refuse to make an endorsement, but many suspect he is supporting Perry.

Romney sweeps all of the February primaries in caucuces, with Paul and Perry battling for second in many of them. Following comfortable victories in Wisconsin and Michigan and a shutout on March 6th, Rick Perry withdraws from the race, and, rather reluctantly, endorses Romney.

Paul, as expected, stays in the race to the bitter end, but in late June, he withdraws from the race. He later said in an interview "My vote doesn't matter too much - Texas is going to vote for Romney. Neither option is pro-liberty, but America cannot afford four more years of Obama." The comment was seen as somewhat of an endorsement to Romney.



!!!
Please don't comment about what a hack I am until you read the scenario which causes the map. I plan on continuing to make several scenarios that display several different possible outcomes.
!!!


Version: 14

Michele Bachmann surges in late December and is able to win the Iowa caucus, causing a huge dent in momentum for Gingrich and Cain.rnrnA narrow win for Gingrich in Florida brings it to a dead heat, with the two trading victories. A win for Romney in Illinois is see as the turning point for Romney, and from that point he wins most of the


Version: 13

Explanation:
After the harassment scandal, Cain continues to sink, though not to Perry levels, and hovers in the low-teens. In mid-November Gingrich see's a rise and leads Romney for several weeks. However, after his skeletons are made more public, he also falls, though like Cain, isn't completely out of it.

Bachmann see's a slow rise throughout November, and in December, many Tea Party Republicans turn back to their darling, and she see's a boost. At this point, Romney is hovering around 30%, with Bachmann and Gingrich in the high teens.

Bachmann spent almost all of her resources in Iowa, and with the new momentum and finances, narrowly defeating Gingrich in the Iowa caucus. Romney also claimed victory, as he had a strong third place showing. Following the caucus, Santorum dropped out and endorsed Romney, many assuming he was eying for the VP slot. Rick Perry also dropped out of the race, as polls showed him now around 3% nationally. He vowed to back whoever the "Anti-Romney turned out to be."

Huntsman had steadily gained steam in New Hampshire, but Romney proved too powerful, and defeated Huntsman by around 20 points. This was largely a race between the two Mormons, as no other candidate spent too much time there. Following, Jon Huntsman dropped out and vowed to endorse the eventual nominee.

South Carolina was seen as the do or die state - if Romney wins, it's over. If Bachmann wins, she may have enough momentum to actually compete with Romney. Gingrich and Cain are also hoping for a win to keep their struggling campaigns alive. 2 days before the primary, Jim Demint endorses Mitt Romney, as well as Nikki Haley, which is seen as a devastating blow to his opponents (Note: Demint endorsed Romney in 2008 and Romney was a Haley backer in 2010, so this is certainly possible). It proved that this put him over the edge, as Romney narrowly defeated Bachmann and Gingrich on election night. Following, Herman Cain withdrew from the race, as did Newt Gingrich. At this point, only Paul, Bachmann, and Romney remain.

Florida was seen as a test - Romney originally had a solid lead, but both Bachmann and Paul spent a lot more time in the state, and Romney's lead quickly diminished. A late endorsement from Rubio strengthened his cause, and he was able to pull out a victory. Paul shocked a lot of pundits by actually taking 2nd in this contest.

Several more states occur, and Bachmann was able to come close to Romney in several southern states, but never actually win. In mid-March, she dropped out and reluctantly endorsed Romney. At this time, many of his past opponents, as well as the Bush family, rallied around Romney. Paul pressed on, not dropping out until late-April. He refused to endorse anyone.


Version: 12

Yes, you saw correctly. With a Cain implosion looming, I think Gingrich will be the next "flavor", but will be able to ride it longer than recent ones.


Version: 7

Cain drops out after 5/08 primaries.


Version: 6

I know what people are thinking...HACK MAP.

My response to that: Under this scenario, Palin decides to jump in the race, further splitting the conservative vote. Mitt Romney (Who btw, leads in one Iowa poll now) barely clinches a win in Iowa, then goes on to New Hampshire. Perry still wins South Carolina, albeit narrowly, and is able to snag a win in Georgia. Romney takes a string of wins, and the dagger is shoved in Perry's heart when he loses Arizona. Afterwards, he drops out, and Romney becomes the presumptive nominee. Paul stays in almost the entire way, but eventually drops out, not making an endorsement.


Version: 5

I think if Romney has even the slightest momentum after the first few states, he's going to be rolling in late February which could be enough to clinch it for him. If he can win Wisconsin and sweep Michigan/Arizona, I think the road for Perry to win becomes extremely difficult.


Version: 3

By March, the race turns into Perry vs. Romney, with Romney having a clear edge. When the final primaries conclude, Perry withdraws and begrudgingly endorses Romney.


Version: 2

Something like this could happen on a nationwide primary, say, mid-February. I'm assuming Perry is somewhat a "Flavor of the Month", and his support will die down to the high-teens by late September.


Version: 1

Just an explanation so people don't get confused:

I'll probably mostly just do this assuming all state's voted the same day to make things simpler. Under this setup, by March the race is down to Perry, Romney, and Paul. After the April 24th Northeast primaries, Perry drops out. After the 5/08 primaries, Ron Paul drops out.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 365
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 176
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 128
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie 191
P 2018 Senate 32/35 21/35 53/70 75.7% pie 17 1 132T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 16 3 6T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 3 40T149
P 2016 President 50/56 35/56 85/112 75.9% pie 18 1 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 16 1 60T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 7/12 18/24 75.0% pie 14 1 3T279
P 2015 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 10 3T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 22 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 18/36 47/72 65.3% pie 19 0 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 13 17T153
P 2012 President 53/56 39/56 92/112 82.1% pie 62 1 435T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 26 1 164T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 14 1 89T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 43 - 22T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 14 1 37T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 128 1 34T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 25/37 58/74 78.4% pie 114 1 74T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 18 1 1T103
P 2008 President 49/56 36/56 85/112 75.9% pie 67 1 357T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 19/33 51/66 77.3% pie 23 1 96T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 16 1 86T264
Aggregate Predictions 528/584 361/584 889/1168 76.1% pie



Back to 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved