Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	4
Romney	41
Paul	0
Santorum	7
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	35
Paul	0
Santorum	4
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	12

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
72	45	27

Analysis

Utah: R>90

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 63

59/84 + 1/2 (AR, KY) = 61/88 or 69.3%

TX: R>60

[update] 61/88 + 2/2 (TX) = 63/90 or 70.0%

CA, NM, MT, SD, NJ: R>70

Version: 62

56/80 + 2/2 (OR) + 1/2 (NE) = 59/84 or 70.2%

AR, KY: R>70

Version: 61

This is going really well!

50/74 + 2/2 (IN, WV, NC) = 56/80 (70%)

NE: R>60
OR: R>70

Version: 60

Romney >60 in IN, NC, WV

Version: 59

PA: R>50
NY, DE, RI, CT: R>60

[update] that was a good night...only got 1 percentage wrong.

41/64 + 2/2 (PA, NY, RI, CT) + 1/2 (DE) = 50/74 or 67.6%

Version: 58

Romney should win everything from now on...unless Newt surges again

Version: 57

April 24: Romney wins CT, NY, RI and DE. PA could go either way...

Version: 56

updated DC to Romney >70%

[update] 36/58 + 2/2 (WI, DC) + 1/2 (MD) = 41/64 or 64.1%

Version: 55

DC: Romney >60
MD: Romney >50
WI: Romney >40

Version: 54

34/56 + 2/2 (LA) = 36/58 or 62.1%

Romney wins WI.

Version: 53

32/54 + 2/2 (IL) = 34/56 or 60.7%

LA: Santorum 42%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 7%

Version: 52

31/52 + 1/2 (PR) = 32/54 or 59.3%

IL: Romney 47%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 10%, Paul 10%.

Version: 51

Romney wins PR with >50% and IL with >40%

Version: 50

That didn't go well... 31/52 = 59.6%

Version: 49

Santorum wins Kansas with ~51%

[update] 30/46 = 65.2%. Not going to bother updating this for MS/AL/HI.

MS and AL: Gingrich wins with ~32-33%, but it's going to be close.
HI: Romney wins with ~55%.

Version: 48

14/24 + 2/2 (AK, GA, OH, OK, TN) + 1/2 (ID, MA, VT, VA) + 0/2 (ND)

= 28/44 (63.6%)

Version: 47

Romney: AK, ID, OH, VT, VA, MA, ND
Santorum: OK, TN
Gingrich: GA

Version: 46

Romney wins AK, ID, MA, OH, VT, VA
Santorum wins ND, OK, TN
Gingrich wins GA

Version: 45

14/24 = 58.3%

Romney wins AK, ID, MA, ND, VT, VA
Santorum wins OH, OK, TN
Gingrich wins GA

Version: 44

Romney wins WA.

Version: 43

11/20 = 55% so far...

I think there's just enough still out in WY to push Romney over 40%.

[update] ...well there wasn't. 12/22 = 54.5%

Version: 42

Updated:

AZ: Romney 41%, Santorum 30%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 10%
MI: Santorum 39%, Romney 36%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 11%

Version: 41

AZ: Romney 41%, Santorum 30%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 10%
MI: Romney 38%, Santorum 37%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 11%

Version: 40

Romney wins AZ and MI.

Version: 39

Romney concedes in May

Version: 38

Romney concedes at the beginning of May

Version: 37

8/14 up to MN/CO + 1/2 for ME = 9/16 or 56.25%...

Santorum could win MI and Paul could win WA?

Version: 36

hmmm. Final ME prediction...no idea what's going to happen...let's say Romney 42%, Paul 40%, Santorum 10%, Gingrich 8%.

Version: 35

wow

Version: 34

CO: Romney 40%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 14%.
MN: Santorum 34%, Romney 27%, Paul 20%, Gingrich 19%.

Prediction above for MO primary instead of caucus, just for fun...Santorum gets 45%.

Version: 33

IA 0/2 + NH 2/2 + SC 1/2 + FL 2/2 + NV 2/2 = 7/10 = 70%.

CO: Romney 41%, Santorum 26%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 14%.
MN: Santorum 31%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 19%.

Version: 32

Maine back to Romney

I might regret this...final NV prediction. Romney just breaks 50%. Paul ~23%, Gingrich ~19%, Santorum ~8%.

Version: 31

IA 0/2 + NH 2/2 + SC 1/2 + FL 2/2 = 5/8 or 62.5% so far...

Version: 30

(updated) final FL prediction. Romney ~41%, Gingrich ~31%, Santorum ~15%, Paul ~11%.

Version: 29

Final FL prediction. Romney ~40%, Gingrich ~33%, Santorum ~14%, Paul ~11%.

Version: 28

I'm not doing very well so far...
IA 0/2 + NH 2/2 + SC 1/2 = 3/6, only half right :(
Gingrich back to winning a few states

Version: 27

Gingrich wins SC.
And boo hiss boo to IA.

Final SC prediction. Gingrich ~36%, Romney ~30%, Paul ~17%, Santorum ~14%

Version: 26

Final NH prediction. Romney mid - high 30s, maybe even low 40s. Paul ~18%, Huntsman ~15%.

Version: 25

Romney wins SC.

Version: 24

Final Iowa prediction. Romney ~25%, Paul and Santorum close on ~20% each.

Version: 23

Romney wins Iowa.

Version: 22

Gingrich concedes in April.

Version: 21

?????

Version: 20

Romney concedes after 6 March.

Version: 19

Romney concedes in March.

Version: 18

Romney concedes in March.

Version: 17

Romney concedes at the beginning of May.

Version: 16

no idea what's going on any more.

Version: 15

!?

Version: 14

Texas should be for Gingrich in this one

Version: 13

As before but with Gingrich taking support away from Cain.

Version: 12

Cain Train!

Version: 11

assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Cain-Romney contest through to June...

Version: 10

assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Cain-Romney contest through to June...

Version: 9

assuming Cain concedes after the 24/4 primaries...

Version: 8

...assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Cain-Romney contest through to June...

Version: 7

hmmmm...

Version: 6

assuming Perry concedes after the 24/4 primaries

Version: 5

assuming Perry concedes after the 24/4 primaries

Version: 4

assuming Romney concedes after the 24/4 primaries

Version: 3

assuming Romney concedes after the 24/4 primaries

Version: 2

assuming Romney concedes at the end of April

Version: 1

assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Perry-Romney contest through to June

Version History

64: 2012-06-16 @ 11:50:15 63: 2012-05-28 @ 20:05:59 62: 2012-05-21 @ 07:04:36 61: 2012-05-09 @ 11:12:04 60: 2012-05-08 @ 07:32:39 59: 2012-04-22 @ 10:56:34 58: 2012-04-10 @ 19:26:45 57: 2012-04-06 @ 15:58:35 56: 2012-04-03 @ 10:04:27 55: 2012-04-02 @ 07:48:21 54: 2012-03-25 @ 11:17:17 53: 2012-03-23 @ 11:34:04 52: 2012-03-19 @ 12:08:45 51: 2012-03-17 @ 19:58:31 50: 2012-03-14 @ 07:20:32 49: 2012-03-09 @ 19:48:52 48: 2012-03-08 @ 05:58:42 47: 2012-03-06 @ 08:26:17 46: 2012-03-05 @ 09:29:09 45: 2012-03-04 @ 18:06:40 44: 2012-03-02 @ 09:07:41 43: 2012-02-29 @ 07:18:34 42: 2012-02-28 @ 05:47:30 41: 2012-02-27 @ 10:43:43 40: 2012-02-26 @ 10:47:05 39: 2012-02-19 @ 10:20:34 38: 2012-02-15 @ 10:30:49 37: 2012-02-12 @ 11:45:31 36: 2012-02-10 @ 19:59:51 35: 2012-02-08 @ 18:10:45 34: 2012-02-07 @ 07:27:34 33: 2012-02-06 @ 10:13:02 32: 2012-02-03 @ 20:19:55 31: 2012-02-02 @ 08:15:46 30: 2012-01-31 @ 08:40:23 29: 2012-01-28 @ 12:59:52 28: 2012-01-23 @ 09:38:25 27: 2012-01-20 @ 06:17:47 26: 2012-01-09 @ 13:24:20 25: 2012-01-06 @ 13:58:17 24: 2012-01-02 @ 16:42:22 23: 2011-12-30 @ 08:56:46 22: 2011-12-24 @ 11:47:55 21: 2011-12-19 @ 13:19:36 20: 2011-12-05 @ 05:47:09 19: 2011-12-03 @ 20:40:21 18: 2011-11-29 @ 16:09:02 17: 2011-11-22 @ 09:03:26 16: 2011-11-15 @ 16:50:11 15: 2011-11-12 @ 09:43:55 14: 2011-11-10 @ 18:45:01 13: 2011-11-08 @ 17:10:17 12: 2011-10-25 @ 17:16:22 11: 2011-10-22 @ 18:59:16 10: 2011-10-18 @ 19:03:45 9: 2011-10-15 @ 10:28:10 8: 2011-10-11 @ 06:50:15 7: 2011-10-05 @ 18:30:32 6: 2011-09-26 @ 09:03:54 5: 2011-09-22 @ 06:54:37 4: 2011-09-21 @ 06:24:13 3: 2011-09-19 @ 09:38:05 2: 2011-09-14 @ 10:32:52 1: 2011-09-09 @ 15:43:37 View Version