Predictions2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - thebadger (I-GBR) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2012-06-16 Version:64

Prediction Map
thebadger MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
thebadger MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich4
 
Romney41
 
Paul0
 
Santorum7
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich1
 
Romney35
 
Paul0
 
Santorum4
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
Tossup12
 

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
724527
piepiepie

Analysis

Utah: R>90


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 63

59/84 + 1/2 (AR, KY) = 61/88 or 69.3%

TX: R>60

[update] 61/88 + 2/2 (TX) = 63/90 or 70.0%

CA, NM, MT, SD, NJ: R>70


Version: 62

56/80 + 2/2 (OR) + 1/2 (NE) = 59/84 or 70.2%

AR, KY: R>70


Version: 61

This is going really well!

50/74 + 2/2 (IN, WV, NC) = 56/80 (70%)

NE: R>60
OR: R>70


Version: 60

Romney >60 in IN, NC, WV


Version: 59

PA: R>50
NY, DE, RI, CT: R>60

[update] that was a good night...only got 1 percentage wrong.

41/64 + 2/2 (PA, NY, RI, CT) + 1/2 (DE) = 50/74 or 67.6%


Version: 58

Romney should win everything from now on...unless Newt surges again


Version: 57

April 24: Romney wins CT, NY, RI and DE. PA could go either way...


Version: 56

updated DC to Romney >70%

[update] 36/58 + 2/2 (WI, DC) + 1/2 (MD) = 41/64 or 64.1%


Version: 55

DC: Romney >60
MD: Romney >50
WI: Romney >40


Version: 54

34/56 + 2/2 (LA) = 36/58 or 62.1%

Romney wins WI.


Version: 53

32/54 + 2/2 (IL) = 34/56 or 60.7%

LA: Santorum 42%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 7%


Version: 52

31/52 + 1/2 (PR) = 32/54 or 59.3%

IL: Romney 47%, Santorum 32%, Gingrich 10%, Paul 10%.


Version: 51

Romney wins PR with >50% and IL with >40%


Version: 50

That didn't go well... 31/52 = 59.6%


Version: 49

Santorum wins Kansas with ~51%

[update] 30/46 = 65.2%. Not going to bother updating this for MS/AL/HI.

MS and AL: Gingrich wins with ~32-33%, but it's going to be close.
HI: Romney wins with ~55%.


Version: 48

14/24 + 2/2 (AK, GA, OH, OK, TN) + 1/2 (ID, MA, VT, VA) + 0/2 (ND)

= 28/44 (63.6%)


Version: 47

Romney: AK, ID, OH, VT, VA, MA, ND
Santorum: OK, TN
Gingrich: GA


Version: 46

Romney wins AK, ID, MA, OH, VT, VA
Santorum wins ND, OK, TN
Gingrich wins GA


Version: 45

14/24 = 58.3%

Romney wins AK, ID, MA, ND, VT, VA
Santorum wins OH, OK, TN
Gingrich wins GA


Version: 44

Romney wins WA.


Version: 43

11/20 = 55% so far...

I think there's just enough still out in WY to push Romney over 40%.

[update] ...well there wasn't. 12/22 = 54.5%


Version: 42

Updated:

AZ: Romney 41%, Santorum 30%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 10%
MI: Santorum 39%, Romney 36%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 11%


Version: 41

AZ: Romney 41%, Santorum 30%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 10%
MI: Romney 38%, Santorum 37%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 11%


Version: 40

Romney wins AZ and MI.


Version: 39

Romney concedes in May


Version: 38

Romney concedes at the beginning of May


Version: 37

8/14 up to MN/CO + 1/2 for ME = 9/16 or 56.25%...

Santorum could win MI and Paul could win WA?


Version: 36

hmmm. Final ME prediction...no idea what's going to happen...let's say Romney 42%, Paul 40%, Santorum 10%, Gingrich 8%.


Version: 35

wow


Version: 34

CO: Romney 40%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 14%.
MN: Santorum 34%, Romney 27%, Paul 20%, Gingrich 19%.

Prediction above for MO primary instead of caucus, just for fun...Santorum gets 45%.


Version: 33

IA 0/2 + NH 2/2 + SC 1/2 + FL 2/2 + NV 2/2 = 7/10 = 70%.

CO: Romney 41%, Santorum 26%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 14%.
MN: Santorum 31%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 19%, Paul 19%.


Version: 32

Maine back to Romney

I might regret this...final NV prediction. Romney just breaks 50%. Paul ~23%, Gingrich ~19%, Santorum ~8%.


Version: 31

IA 0/2 + NH 2/2 + SC 1/2 + FL 2/2 = 5/8 or 62.5% so far...


Version: 30

(updated) final FL prediction. Romney ~41%, Gingrich ~31%, Santorum ~15%, Paul ~11%.


Version: 29

Final FL prediction. Romney ~40%, Gingrich ~33%, Santorum ~14%, Paul ~11%.


Version: 28

I'm not doing very well so far...
IA 0/2 + NH 2/2 + SC 1/2 = 3/6, only half right :(
Gingrich back to winning a few states


Version: 27

Gingrich wins SC.
And boo hiss boo to IA.

Final SC prediction. Gingrich ~36%, Romney ~30%, Paul ~17%, Santorum ~14%


Version: 26

Final NH prediction. Romney mid - high 30s, maybe even low 40s. Paul ~18%, Huntsman ~15%.


Version: 25

Romney wins SC.


Version: 24

Final Iowa prediction. Romney ~25%, Paul and Santorum close on ~20% each.


Version: 23

Romney wins Iowa.


Version: 22

Gingrich concedes in April.


Version: 21

?????


Version: 20

Romney concedes after 6 March.


Version: 19

Romney concedes in March.


Version: 18

Romney concedes in March.


Version: 17

Romney concedes at the beginning of May.


Version: 16

no idea what's going on any more.


Version: 15

!?


Version: 14

Texas should be for Gingrich in this one


Version: 13

As before but with Gingrich taking support away from Cain.


Version: 12

Cain Train!


Version: 11

assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Cain-Romney contest through to June...


Version: 10

assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Cain-Romney contest through to June...


Version: 9

assuming Cain concedes after the 24/4 primaries...


Version: 8

...assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Cain-Romney contest through to June...


Version: 7

hmmmm...


Version: 6

assuming Perry concedes after the 24/4 primaries


Version: 5

assuming Perry concedes after the 24/4 primaries


Version: 4

assuming Romney concedes after the 24/4 primaries


Version: 3

assuming Romney concedes after the 24/4 primaries


Version: 2

assuming Romney concedes at the end of April


Version: 1

assuming most of the minor candidates drop out in March and it's a fairly even Perry-Romney contest through to June


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 290
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie 191
P 2018 Senate 33/35 26/35 59/70 84.3% pie 4 1 4T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 27/36 59/72 81.9% pie 4 3 38T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 116 98T149
P 2016 President 50/56 31/56 81/112 72.3% pie 71 0 194T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 22/34 54/68 79.4% pie 18 0 6T362
P 2016 Governor 7/12 5/12 12/24 50.0% pie 18 0 164T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 5 0 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 25/36 60/72 83.3% pie 5 1 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 21/36 52/72 72.2% pie 4 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 3 8 17T153
P 2012 President 55/56 47/56 102/112 91.1% pie 48 0 47T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 16 0 94T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 11 0 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 27/52 72/104 69.2% pie 64 - 3231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 5 1 37T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 26 0 34T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 26 0 91T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 7 1 1T103
P 2008 President 53/56 44/56 97/112 86.6% pie 65 0 55T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 17 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 11 1 50T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 18/52 61/104 58.7% pie 27 - 38T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 38/49 18/49 56/98 57.1% pie 26 - 21T235
P 2004 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 16 1 834T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 672/741 454/741 1126/1482 76.0% pie



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