Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-06-22 Version:75

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	4
Romney	36
Paul	2
Santorum	10
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	2
Romney	32
Paul	0
Santorum	3
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	15

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
69	43	26

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 1

The race quickly narrows to Perry-Romney-Gingrich. Bachmann, Cain, and Santorum are out in the first few states with support splitting between Gingrich and Perry. Huntsman is soon out as well and his support shifts to Romney. Ron Paul stays in but his image fades.

Eventually Gingrich wins the upper hand in the conservative vote over Perry and forces him out, creating a two way race to the nomination.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	33/35	28/35	61/70	87.1%	4	1	37	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	23/36	57/72	79.2%	1	5	130	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	2	9	1	T	118
2020 President	54/56	45/56	99/112	88.4%	12	6	48	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	21/35	52/70	74.3%	7	4	194	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	4	6	3	T	293
2018 Senate	31/35	22/35	53/70	75.7%	2	1	132	T	483
2018 Governor	31/36	19/36	50/72	69.4%	1	5	226	T	372
2016 President	51/56	29/56	80/112	71.4%	10	0	246	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	18/34	49/68	72.1%	8	0	120	T	362
2016 Governor	9/12	5/12	14/24	58.3%	5	0	67	T	279
2014 Senate	35/36	29/36	64/72	88.9%	32	1	2		382
2014 Governor	31/36	20/36	51/72	70.8%	27	1	22	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	5	2	1	T	153
2012 President	52/56	45/56	97/112	86.6%	61	0	227	T	760
2012 Senate	29/33	17/33	46/66	69.7%	19	0	189	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	6	0	51	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	26/52	69/104	66.3%	75	-	8	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	1/4	4/8	50.0%	2	16	79	T	106
2010 Senate	27/37	17/37	44/74	59.5%	2	350	321	T	456
2010 Governor	27/37	14/37	41/74	55.4%	2	350	237	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	18	1	T	103
2008 President	50/56	40/56	90/112	80.4%	25	1	219	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	17/33	49/66	74.2%	13	1	144	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	4/11	14/22	63.6%	7	1	212	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	42/52	14/52	56/104	53.8%	23	-	58	T	271
2008 Rep Primary	38/49	16/49	54/98	55.1%	28	-	31	T	235
Aggregate Predictions	751/855	492/855	1243/1710	72.7%

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