Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	47
Paul	0
Santorum	4
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 |	52 |
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	34
Paul	0
Santorum	3
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	14

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
63	43	20

Analysis

Final adjustment. Utah>90%.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 24

Just moved New Jersey from >80 to >70.

Version: 23

Just margins updates at this point.

Version: 22

Forgot to update percentages before NY, RI, DE, CT, and PA. That hurt. But remembered this time.

Version: 21

After Tuesday in Wisconsin, Santorum is done. It looks like he'll pull out before the PA, NY, RI, CT, and DE primaries. If he stays in, he's apt to lose. It's over.

Version: 20

MD, WI, and DC tomorrow. Just a few tweaks. I don't think Santorum is going to be able to hang on until the end of May. Right now I have him sticking it out until about mid-May. But I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he gets out after losing Wisconsin to avoid the possibility that he would then lose his home state of PA a few weeks later, as the coalescence around Romney seems to finally have started happening. We'll see.

Version: 19

First update since before MS, AL, and HI. Santorum and Gingrich seem determined to slug it out till the end. But I predict Romney will win enough delegates on June 5, to finally have a clear 1,144 delegates, prompting the other two to finally acknowledge reality. Santorum didn't help himself with his "vote for Obama" gaffe yesterday. Everyone except the wingnuttiest elements of the party seem to have realized that it's time for this to end.

Version: 18

Update before the MS, AL, HI, AS primaries/caucuses tomorrow. It looks like this is going to end up taking longer than I would have liked, but mathematically Romney is all but assured the win, and I still think Gingrich and Santorum will have left the race by mid-April.

Version: 17

Update before the Kansas caucus.

Version: 16

Updating before Super-Tuesday starts. I think tomorrow may be decisive. Tennessee and Ohio are beginning to break towards Romney. If he wins them both, it's all but over.

Version: 15

Washington Caucus tomorrow. Adjusting margins in light of the Wyoming Caucus. Romney is seeing a big bounce, but caucuses are proving more difficult for him than primaries.

Version: 14

Almost forgot to update before the primaries today.

Version: 13

Not very hopeful about this thing wrapping up anytime soon. Colorado was a complete blind side to Romney, and also to me. He'll still win, but it may take a while.

Version: 12

Romney has won two in a row now, but he isn't as strong in MN for tomorrow as I would have expected. The MO primary isn't a contest that is being predicted on this site, but he's not very strong there, either. If he loses both tomorrow, it could slow things up and potentially help to spread this process out past Super Tuesday. That's not likely, but it is possible.

Version: 11

Romney is pulling away with it in Florida. Everything is bad for Gingrich in February. It will do him a lot of damage to not win anything all month. It's all over.

Version: 10

I believe that Romney will win Florida. Newt's SC bump is already gone according to the polls, and Romney has banked a sizable lead in early voting. The calendar then favors Romney through Super Tuesday, and I expect Gingrich to be knocked out at that time.

Version: 9

Updating to reflect current trends. Romney seems to have taken a little hit in NH even as he has risen substantially into a lead in SC. It will be around 40%, give or take a few percentage points in either direction. I think it will be slightly less than 40% but still enough for a healthy win. Best guess is between 37 and 38%. I would guess that Huntsman will come in 4th behind Paul and Gingrich and will drop out. A 5th place finish will also hurt Santorum, no matter how he tries to spin it, but he's in it until at least SC.

Version: 8

I think that Romney is going to win Iowa, actually. He still won't be able to put away the nomination overly quickly. But an Iowa win will be a major victory, and will help with the campaign monologue that he is the most electable and also the inevitable nominee.

Version: 7

I think Paul or Romney will win IA, dealing a major blow to Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum. Santorum will leave the race leaving the other 3 of those to compete over his support but Bachmann and Perry will be so close that neither will leave. Huntsman will leave the race after a huge Romney win in NH. Gingrich will win FL and then SC causing either Perry or Bachmann to leave. Romney will win big on Super Tuesday, winnowing it down to Romney, Paul, and Gingrich or possibly Perry or Bachmann if Gingrich collapses. They will continue to duke it out until Romney wins the Texas primary, which will force everyone out except Paul, who is incapable of taking a hint. Paul will stay on all the ballots through the end but Romney will effectively be the nominee after Texas.

Version: 6

God help if Gingrich wins. I no longer believe that this contest will end at about mid-cycle. It will go almost to the end. Fortunately, I still believe that the schedule favors Romney, and the more chances Newt has to make a gaffe, the better as he has a history of saying dumb things when the pressure is on. But I've given him more states inasmuch as he'll end up in the race for longer if things continue as they are.

Version: 5

Here are some shifts to represent recent trends. About a month ago, as Cain was ascending, I predicted his quick demise and that Gingrich would be the replacement anti-Romney candidate. It seems I was correct. And while I never believed Cain would go anywhere, I do think Gingrich will hold on to his position into the primary season. But because the primary schedule is front-loaded with states that favor Romney, and because of Gingrich's baggage, I think it likely that he'll have a hard time knocking Romney off. Currently I predict Gingrich will leave the race following the Missouri primary. That will leave Romney and Paul on the ballot (since Paul won't withdraw). Romney will the win the general by a margin of 54-45% if current trends hold.

Version: 4

I think that the debate last night did Rick Perry in. I don't think he can win, but also don't think he'll get out before the initial round of primaries and caucuses. I think Gingrich will become the new more Conservative flavor of the week, and since it's getting so late, and everyone else has already had their turn, I think he will be the alternative to Romney. But he won't have hard support so I fully expect Romney to put the nomination away on Super Tuesday. In any event, Perry is done. He was nasty last night, and thoroughly unpleasant. He can't win like this, and I expect him to bow out early into the season.

Version: 3

With the way things are going now, I think Romney may eke out a win in Iowa, with Bachmann, Cain, Paul, and Perry splitting the majority of the "tea party" votes. Following that will be pretty decent wins for Romney in New Hampshire and then Nevada. South Carolina will probably not go for Romney, even with the split votes (actually by this time I expect Bachmann to be out). I think Perry will win there. Following South Carolina, Cain will drop out as it was a "must win" for him. The "tea partiers" will rally around Perry but with Paul in the mix it will be too little, too late. Perry will be fatally wounded and Romney will be perceived as unstoppable, as no one expects him to win SC, anyway. He will go on to win the nomination, and will be the heir apparent by Super Tuesday night, when Perry will exit the race. I have used for these projections the most current primary schedule (though some states are still tentative), which is different that the current older schedule used by the site.

Version: 2

This map reflects Perry's debate performance. He won't be able to defeat Romney this way. Trajectory of the race has changed. Also of interest, new poll out of New Hampshire showing Romney way further ahead than I expected. And there are new whispers out of New Jersey about Governor Chris Christie, who would completely shake up this race if he were finally to decide to enter, in my opinion.

Version: 1

I think Rick Perry will be the nominee and will be the last candidate left in the race by the time of the Illinois primary. Mitt Romney has a very good chance as well. And the fact that the primary schedule is front-loaded with several West and Northern states friendly to him may help him secure the nomination. At this stage, though, I think the trajectory of the race will end up as noted, with Perry as the nominee. But it's still very early and the map will certainly change. The likelihood of Huntsman winning a single primary is 0. And Bachmann and Paul will probably not have too much of an effect past the first few states, though Paul's supporters will certainly have an effect on Perry's totals, even after Paul leaves the contest and Perry has won.

Version History

25: 2012-06-26 @ 06:49:03 24: 2012-06-05 @ 03:24:53 23: 2012-05-16 @ 20:03:44 22: 2012-05-08 @ 00:58:59 21: 2012-04-05 @ 19:53:45 20: 2012-04-02 @ 23:12:43 19: 2012-03-23 @ 17:40:12 18: 2012-03-12 @ 23:37:19 17: 2012-03-09 @ 20:05:17 16: 2012-03-06 @ 00:48:35 15: 2012-03-02 @ 23:50:02 14: 2012-02-28 @ 11:39:12 13: 2012-02-11 @ 00:41:09 12: 2012-02-06 @ 20:19:53 11: 2012-01-30 @ 19:02:51 10: 2012-01-26 @ 00:12:25 9: 2012-01-09 @ 21:57:40 8: 2012-01-02 @ 01:39:43 7: 2011-12-27 @ 18:17:22 6: 2011-12-12 @ 21:09:08 5: 2011-11-18 @ 00:05:19 4: 2011-10-19 @ 23:41:10 3: 2011-10-12 @ 02:22:16 2: 2011-09-26 @ 10:53:25 1: 2011-09-16 @ 22:10:11 View Version