Election 2012 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-07-07 Version:57

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	4
Romney	35
Paul	2
Santorum	11
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Huntsman	0
Gingrich	1
Romney	34
Paul	0
Santorum	4
Cain	0
Perry	0
Other	0
Tossup	13

Prediction Score (max Score = 104)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
60	40	20

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 38

Newt drops out after Super Tuesday. And Santorum gets the conservative vote. No candidate wins enough delegates to win the nomination. Gingrich throws his support behind Santorum in late June in order to avoid a brokered convention and to stop Romney from getting the nomination.

Version: 29

Santorum drops out after Florida and the conservatives rally around Gingrich but too late to stop Romney from getting the nomination. After losing Pennsylvania on April 24th Gingrich drops out leaving Ron Paul as the only Challenger to Romney.

Version: 21

Iowa- Newt wins, Bachmann 2nd, and Paul 3rd. Santorum Drops out. Santorum endorses Bachmann.

New Hampshire- Romney wins, and Newt finishes 2nd. Closer than polls expect. Paul finishes a decent 3rd. Johnson and Huntsman drop out. Johnson endorses Ron Paul. When Paul doesnt get the nomination Johnson runs as a Libertarian. Huntsman endorses Romney.

South Carolina- Newt destroys Romney. Perry drops out and endorses Newt.

Florida- Newt wins Romney finishes a close 2nd. Bachmann drops out and endorses Newt. Roemer drops out and runs as the Americans Elect Nominee.

After that Ron Paul and Fred Karger stay in the rest of the race. Romney comes back and wins Nevada Maine Wisconsin Michigan and Arizona. Newt wins the southern states. Newt and Mitt go back and forth winning races until June. After a big win in Utah in June Romney finally drops out and endorses Newt. Newt will be the nominee.

Version: 20

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	29/56	79/112	70.5%	9	393	280	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	17/34	48/68	70.6%	6	343	164	T	362
2016 Governor	8/12	7/12	15/24	62.5%	3	343	47	T	279
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	143	72	T	112
2014 Senate	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	21	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	18	1	39	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	1	136	17	T	153
2012 President	48/56	28/56	76/112	67.9%	84	5	702	T	760
2012 Senate	25/33	13/33	38/66	57.6%	27	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	6/11	15/22	68.2%	3	43	131	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	40/52	20/52	60/104	57.7%	57	-	41	T	231
2011 Governor	3/4	2/4	5/8	62.5%	3	14	37	T	106
2010 Senate	31/37	17/37	48/74	64.9%	48	1	265	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	18/37	49/74	66.2%	41	2	179	T	312
2008 President	48/56	21/56	69/112	61.6%	4	12	1031	T	1,505
Aggregate Predictions	393/465	223/465	616/930	66.2%

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