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Date of Prediction: 2011-11-18 Version:3

Prediction Map
Ernest MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Ernest MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich49
 
Romney3
 
Paul0
 
Santorum0
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Huntsman0
 
Gingrich47
 
Romney2
 
Paul0
 
Santorum0
 
Cain0
 
Perry0
 
Other0
 
Tossup3
 

Analysis

I've revised my prediction to have Newt do better early and Romney drops after losing Arizona and Michigan on February 28. Paul will remain as may some of the ideologues, but the nomination will be secure by then. Only reason I have Romney winning Alaska and Washington is because they are early caucus states. Had they been primaries, I'd have placed those in Newt's column as well.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate /33 /33 /66 % pie
P 2016 President 50/56 28/56 78/112 69.6% pie 14 10 325T
P 2016 Senate 30/34 19/34 49/68 72.1% pie 1 73 120T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 19 17T
P 2012 President 55/56 40/56 95/112 84.8% pie 48 1 314T
P 2012 Senate 32/33 26/33 58/66 87.9% pie 22 0 2T
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 2 1 89T
P 2012 Rep Primary 36/52 13/52 49/104 47.1% pie 18 - 75T
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 2 3 21T
P 2010 Governor 33/37 29/37 62/74 83.8% pie 1 3 17T
P 2009 Governor 1/2 0/2 1/4 25.0% pie 1 137 92T
P 2008 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 79 1 100T
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 28/33 61/66 92.4% pie 17 2 2
P 2006 Governor 35/36 29/36 64/72 88.9% pie 16 2 6T
P 2004 President 53/56 41/56 94/112 83.9% pie 47 1 66T
Aggregate Predictions 457/501 330/501 787/1002 78.5% pie



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