Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-28 Version:7

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	323
Rep	215
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	272
Rep	185
Ind	0
Tos	81

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	+1	0	+15	-2	0	-24	25	2	308	-9
Rep	+2	0	+24	-1	0	-15	23	3	191	+9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Analysis

Well I tweaked some percentages and flipped North Carolina and Iowa. Although it should tighten I feel that CLinton will win although I do not know how I am voting yet...I am lost without party this year.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-10-28 @ 06:32:03
I will probably update this one more time before election starts on Nov. 8th although more than 10% have already voted.<br /> <br /> I love elections but this one is worse than anyone I have participated in since the 1840's (no I did not participate in those but close)...

By: wingindy (I-IN) 2016-10-29 @ 11:45:17
How about McMullen or Kotlikoff?

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-10-29 @ 15:05:20
I believe that Utah may flip to Independent...I am hoping more Clinton voters there jump ship to the Independent. <br /> Recent revelations over Weiner's pornography do not say much about the quality of action from the FBI. I believe there is not much there but that the FBI note was a corrective for the early gaff. <br /> <br /> Where it may hurt the most is down ballot.<br /> <br /> <br /> Amazing election and far fewer dirty tricks than people think...not like Nixon in '72 or even LBJ in '64 not to mention his Texas senate runs....<br /> <br /> anyway I really wanted to vote GOP for Pres this year and would have if anyone but Trump.<br /> <br />

By: JPPablo (D-CA) 2016-11-04 @ 17:19:52
dnul222, vote for Clinton! What America seriously needed was a Democrat-led Congress, after these last six years of Republican obstructionism. But returning back to a Republican President - especially Trump - is out of the question. A vote for anybody but Clinton is a vote for Trump. Last Edit: 2016-11-04 @ 17:20:35

By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-11-07 @ 11:53:17
Well you are right about some things. But I think that Trump is speaking the right issues when he talks about finances. We need lower corporate tax rate (less loopholes) and most important we must have a balanced budget AND lower the debt. The biggest threat to American democracy is the debt not ISIS or Russia but the debt. The Soviet Union fell apart because of finances. I do not see Clinton tackling this. But in the end the possibility of trump will drive me to vote for Clinton and that is tomorrow.!

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	16/56	66/112	58.9%	8	1	614	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	11/34	43/68	63.2%	8	0	317	T	362
2014 Senate	32/36	16/36	48/72	66.7%	19	13	240	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	2	162	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	1	229	1	T	153
2012 President	54/56	30/56	84/112	75.0%	46	2	630	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	7/33	38/66	57.6%	8	3	283	T	343
2012 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	78	157	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	26/52	4/52	30/104	28.8%	1	-	154	T	231
2010 Senate	34/37	11/37	45/74	60.8%	50	7	306	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	18/37	52/74	70.3%	26	6	143	T	312
2008 President	53/56	24/56	77/112	68.8%	83	1	625	T	1,505
2008 Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	4	122	281	T	407
2008 Governor	9/11	5/11	14/22	63.6%	1	286	212	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	427/490	179/490	606/980	61.8%

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