PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - dnul222 (D-MN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-10-28 Version:7

Prediction Map
dnul222 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
dnul222 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem323
 
Rep215
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem272
 
Rep185
 
Ind0
 
Tos81
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15-20-24252308-9
Rep+20+24-10-15233191+9
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Well I tweaked some percentages and flipped North Carolina and Iowa. Although it should tighten I feel that CLinton will win although I do not know how I am voting yet...I am lost without party this year.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 7

Well I tweaked some percentages and flipped North Carolina and Iowa. Although it should tighten I feel that CLinton will win although I do not know how I am voting yet...I am lost without party this year.


Version: 6

A little movement to Trump and a little movement to Clinton...Colorado and Virginia stronger for Clinton, Ohio and Pennsylvania move toward trump and he actually carries Ohio.<br />rn<br />rnCan he win, just how angry are some Americans and are they outnumbered in most states by those fearing Trump and loss of some GOP to other candidates including Clinton. Well long way to labor day let alone election day and I do not know how I am voting and I have never voted for anyone but Dem for President but I do not like her, that is why in 2007 I started supporting Obama.<br />rn<br />rnWell, time will tell.<br /> <br /> I forgot to enter my Ohio change...


Version: 5

New map Clinton versus Trump... closer in a number of states but hard to tell where the third party vote comes from in each state with Johnson getting higher number in GOP states and Green party getting higher number in Dem states...higher number of GOP voters to Dem voters for example.<br /> <br /> I think total for third parties will top 10% making new president minority president again.<br /> <br />


Version: 4

This is my first Rubio - Clinton map. I feel Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida will be the deciding states....Rubio could win this by taking Ohio and Virginia. It will be tough for any GOP as the brand is undergoing some pressure right now.


Version: 3

This is my nail biter prediction map and a possible one at that. I believe Ohio will be a point or two ahead of PA this year. And I believe Virginia will too. Florida will be close as will a number of other states but this is another road to the white house for GOP. <br /> <br /> I honestly think Hilary will pull out a narrow victory in Iowa though.


Version: 2

I changed Florida to the GOP on the basis of Clinton's sinking numbers. However, one thing that will work in her favor and may have be switching this state often is the Puerto Rican vote around Orlando. Several hundred thousand Puerto Ricans have moved to Orlando to work in the hospitality and tourist business. They are solidly Democratic and like Hilary.<br /> <br /> The Trump craze in the GOP is a real thing. People are angry at Washington not just Obama. Will he maintain this lead...well with a lot of candidates as Trump reigns in 20% plus he could squeak out victory after victory.<br /> <br /> And if no FLorida member of the GOP (Bush or Rubio) is on the ticket this state will flip back to Democrats in my mind and predictions.


Version: 1

Although there is a growing distrust of the eventual nominee Clinton, I feel her campaign will be feisty enough to hold most of the Obama states. The great unknown is who does she draw for an opponent. Will it be Bush, Walker, Kasich, Rubio or Rand Paul....each have their own weaknesses. Personally I want to vote GOP this time but please give someone I can stomach.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-10-28 @ 06:32:03 prediction Map
I will probably update this one more time before election starts on Nov. 8th although more than 10% have already voted.<br /> <br /> I love elections but this one is worse than anyone I have participated in since the 1840's (no I did not participate in those but close)...

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2016-10-29 @ 11:45:17 prediction Map
How about McMullen or Kotlikoff?

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-10-29 @ 15:05:20 prediction Map
I believe that Utah may flip to Independent...I am hoping more Clinton voters there jump ship to the Independent. <br /> Recent revelations over Weiner's pornography do not say much about the quality of action from the FBI. I believe there is not much there but that the FBI note was a corrective for the early gaff. <br /> <br /> Where it may hurt the most is down ballot.<br /> <br /> <br /> Amazing election and far fewer dirty tricks than people think...not like Nixon in '72 or even LBJ in '64 not to mention his Texas senate runs....<br /> <br /> anyway I really wanted to vote GOP for Pres this year and would have if anyone but Trump.<br /> <br />

 By: JPPablo (D-CA) 2016-11-04 @ 17:19:52 prediction Map
dnul222, vote for Clinton! What America seriously needed was a Democrat-led Congress, after these last six years of Republican obstructionism. But returning back to a Republican President - especially Trump - is out of the question. A vote for anybody but Clinton is a vote for Trump.

Last Edit: 2016-11-04 @ 17:20:35

 By: dnul222 (D-MN) 2016-11-07 @ 11:53:17 prediction Map
Well you are right about some things. But I think that Trump is speaking the right issues when he talks about finances. We need lower corporate tax rate (less loopholes) and most important we must have a balanced budget AND lower the debt. The biggest threat to American democracy is the debt not ISIS or Russia but the debt. The Soviet Union fell apart because of finances. I do not see Clinton tackling this. But in the end the possibility of trump will drive me to vote for Clinton and that is tomorrow.!


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 50/56 16/56 66/112 58.9% pie 8 1 614T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 11/34 43/68 63.2% pie 8 0 317T362
P 2014 Senate 32/36 16/36 48/72 66.7% pie 19 13 240T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 2 162 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 229 1T153
P 2012 President 54/56 30/56 84/112 75.0% pie 46 2 630T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 7/33 38/66 57.6% pie 8 3 283T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 78 157T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 26/52 4/52 30/104 28.8% pie 1 - 154T231
P 2010 Senate 34/37 11/37 45/74 60.8% pie 50 7 306T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 18/37 52/74 70.3% pie 26 6 143T312
P 2008 President 53/56 24/56 77/112 68.8% pie 83 1 625T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 14/33 44/66 66.7% pie 4 122 281T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 5/11 14/22 63.6% pie 1 286 212T264
Aggregate Predictions 427/490 179/490 606/980 61.8% pie


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