Undecideds in the north break somewhat towards trump, but the far superior ground game and early voting give Clinton wins in minority heavy FL, NC and CO.

Undecideds in the north break somewhat towards trump, but the far superior ground game and early voting give Clinton wins in minority heavy FL, NC and CO.

Clinton-49%<br /> Trump-41%<br /> Johnson-8%<br /> Stein-1%<br /> Other-1%<br /> <br /> At this point I think trump is imploding enough that continuing Republican defections to Johnson will at least equal the usual third party slide as election day approaches

massive political realignment scenario. Trump pulls 15% or less of Hispanics which show up in record numbers, costing him the entire southwest as well as florida. He also scares voters in the libertarianish mountin west and texas, who put in record low turnout and Johnson pulls double digits in some states. Trump compensates for this by greatly outperforming Romney among whites, and rides an unprecedented wave of working class support in the rust belt. similarly, he pulls a significant chunk of populist and urban voters that usually lean heavily blue, especially in the greater NYC area and new England. this is exacerbated by rural liberals, mostly Bernie supporters, defecting to Johnson.

prediction now that parties have completely chosen nominees. Ill use this map as a base to see how my predictions change from this point on.<br /> Clinton-49%<br /> Trump-43%<br /> Johnson-6%<br /> Stein-1%<br /> Other-1%

pt two of libertarian success scenario, one where Johnson finishes first but w/o majority. theoretically he might be elected if democrats in house united with small government republicans in house behind him to prevent trump, but its impossible to really know what would happen.

If Gary Johnson were to get into the debates. Unlikely, but not impossible; hes already gotten double digits in polling, and that was before Donald trump was a certainty. I think hed do somewhat better than Perot, given his political experience, insanely unpopular opponents, the benefit of campaign experience and a national party apparatus. plus assuming he doesn't drop out and reenter like perot did.<br /> <br /> Clinton-40%<br /> Trump-32%<br /> Johnson-27%<br /> Other-1%

Clinton vs Kasich. Frankly, This is more of a result of distrust in Clinton. While I do believe Cruz's extremism and unlikability and Trump's everything will very likely beat out Clintons low favorability, against a popular and mostly likeable moderate governor, I think she'll lose by around 3-4% nationally. the EV will be inflated though due to Kasich dominating independents and swing voters despite lower turnout in deep red states due to the divisive primary.<br /> <br />

Cruz vs Clinton. Closer than with Trump, but his inexperience, unlikability, rather extreme views and utter lack of any reason that a swing voter would pick him other than not being Hillary Clinton combined with a relatively stable economy and mildly popular incumbent as well as the fact that some disgruntled trump supporters staying home after the bitter primary.

Trump vs Hillary. I'll do other match ups soon.

Rubio vs Clinton, who I consider the most likely candidates of their respective parties. Rubio is simply younger, more articulate, and more convincingly conveys an optimistic message. I would expect Hillary's image to rebound slightly, but I'd certainly give the edge to Rubio in this scenario.