PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - bluemcdowell (D-WV) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:290

Prediction Map
bluemcdowell MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
bluemcdowell MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem322
 
Rep216
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem268
 
Rep190
 
Ind0
 
Tos80
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15-2-1-25251307-10
Rep+2+1+25-10-15233191+10
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
74462251
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Probably my final map. It does look better for Hillary than it did just a few short days ago. I'm very cautiously optimistic right now because you just never know in American politics anymore. I gave Hillary FL and NC but am really still very unsure about both of them NC especially. I was very, very concerned about NV and NH too but thank God it looks much, much better in both states even than it did 24 short hours ago. ME-2 still looks very interesting, and perhaps even NE-2 the Omaha district as well. It looks like as expected the electoral map not surprisingly is very inelastic once again, with only IA and OH flipping Republican and NC possibly flipping Dem this time. I am really very surprised and greatly disappointed though in IA and OH, much more so than NC. IA because it was the only inland state where more than 50 percent of white voters actually voted for Obama in 2012. Even more so OH. It's gotta be my home state "West Virginia effect" that I have always mentioned before it can't be anything else, at least that's what I think. It's especially surprising to see both IA and OH flip in an apparent Democratic victory, especially OH. 24 hours ago I was even thinking FLORIDA FLORIDA FLORIDA could decide the whole thing yet again, and yes that's still very much possible right now even at this late hour, but not as likely as it did just 24 short hours ago. I was sadly disappointed in AZ and TX I thought the predicted record Hispanic turnout in both states AZ especially would make them be competitive AZ especially if not flip outright but that doesn't look like it will happen in either state sad to say AZ especially. And they don't even look competitive either which is very, very disappointed especially AZ once again. A few others too, not surprisingly my home state of WV where any Republican would have won this year not just Trump, but even worse Trump could even make WV be the GOP's best state in 2016 believe it or not. Who would have ever thunk it? Especially in 1988 when WV still voted for Dukakis. WV will most likely be 2 to 1 for Trump if not even worse. I haven't seen the first Hillary Clinton sign yet here in WV even in black neighborhoods here. On Facebook it's 95/5 here for Trump, and I'm not joking either. It's coal, guns, and religion in that order. That is probably the reason OH is flipping Republican as well, as I can't see any other logical reason but that why that usually very key state will go Republican in 2016 but the "West Virginia effect," especially in a losing effort, and that VA and yes even NC be more Democratic than OH as well. Crazy stuff right there my friends. Well it's still a Hillary victory right now I guess that's all that matters in the big picture. Wait and see as always. #DumpTrump2016


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: edwardsna (R-NY) 2016-11-08 @ 10:49:29 prediction Map
Hey bluemcdowell, may the best candidate win my friend(:

 By: wingindy (I-IN) 2016-11-08 @ 12:14:39 prediction Map
Trump's pull with non-degreed whites is pulling in Iowa and Ohio. I have Clinton losing NC & FL, but on second thought I think she'll win NC. Good luck!

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2016-11-08 @ 18:09:53 prediction Map
Thank you edwardsna as always same to you! Sorry I didn't comment on your recent maps. Wingindy I'm still very much surprised that IA and OH are both going for Trump, especially since recently if you can win both IA and OH it's a guaranteed certainty you'll still win it all, and that may not be the case this time. NC and FL I struggled with until the very last day, and really I'm still am only 50/50 as to win these critical swing states even now after I had made my final decision lol. :-/<br /> <br />

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2016-11-08 @ 18:12:21 prediction Map
I still think the "WV effect" has a lot to do with it in OH, and the fact that most non-college educated whites are voting for Trump there really enforces my belief that's happening as well.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2016-11-08 @ 18:17:34 prediction Map
Thank you edwardsna as always for being very respectful and courteous to me even though we disagree politically. I wish most posters on all sides of the political spectrum were like that..

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2016-11-09 @ 04:48:24 prediction Map
Well congrats edwardsna Trump won it now looks like. I just got out of bed and checked the results. It was PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA PENNSYLVANIA that was the deciding state. More so the "Rust Belt." Turns out there were a lot of angry white voters out there, even more so than I realized. That said God help this country we're really going to need it now. I thought Trump might win but not like this. This was a total and complete shocker. I didn't see this coming, especially in states like PA and MI, which looks like it's probably going to go for Trump too. Wingindy you were proven right you said you thought that maybe Hillary wouldn't win. I think Bernie Sanders probably would have won. I'm actually very interested to see how many Bernie supporters Hillary managed to keep on her side. Apparently not nearly enough unfortunately, especially in the "Rust Belt." Yes the "Rust Belt" was indeed the area of this country that elected Trump. I think it's a very sad day in America. I know my Republican friends probably strongly disagree with me on that. Maybe this will help us Democrats in 2020 though. Wait and see as always. God please help our country right now.

Last Edit: 2016-11-09 @ 04:56:32

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2016-11-09 @ 04:53:32 prediction Map
Trump had the enthusiasm on his side and Hillary didn't. I think it was a mixture of Trump's supporters' enthusiasm marked with heavy doubts about Hillary, especially from the white working class. Those two things combined won this election for Trump more than anything else. Sad but true. I also think there was a lot more anti-Obama sentiment than I originally thought as well. I think a lot of people especially from my home state southward that may have voted more so against Obama than even against Hillary. I think that is was a very underrated voting block this time. It turned out to be much more of a factor than previously thought. I guess now it's "wait and see as always" again to see what happens the next four years. I definitely fear the worst right now of course.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2016-11-09 @ 11:46:35 prediction Map
Apparently The "WV effect" was also much greater in PA than I originally anticipated too. It had to be for Trump to carry the state. :-(

 By: edwardsna (R-NY) 2016-11-09 @ 20:37:59 prediction Map
Don't worry bluemccdowell we will be ok with or without Trump as president. I know how this must feel to you. I know that it hurts not to have your candidate in, but don't worry everything will be fine(:

 By: Scott (O-FL) 2016-11-10 @ 23:22:39 prediction Map
bluemccdowell you should understand what has truly been happening in this country over the last 8 years. When Obama took office there were near 80 million Americans not in the workforce, by 2016 there were 94,600,000 Americans not in the workforce the worst since the time of Jimmy Carter. Yet Obama said "unemployment" was low. The only people that count in the unemployment number are those receiving unemployment payments which only last a few months. Once those payments stop they don't count you as unemployed even if you haven't found a job but are still looking for work. There were vast numbers of those people. Hillary has her own problems with violating National Security Procedures so many did not trust her. The vote was as much against her for her unsecure non government server as it was against the policies of Obama or for Trump.

 By: bluemcdowell (D-WV) 2017-12-27 @ 04:30:41 prediction Map
edwardsna as soon as you can return I'd love your opinion on the U.S. Senate. I think it could literally go either way. Yes Trump is very unpopular among Democrats, and somewhat upon independents too, but his base is very, very strong, and the current perception is that the economy is doing very well (I don't think it's doing as well as they say it is). I know he's been a complete disaster so far. I knew Trump would be bad, but he's been even worse than I expected he would be, and that's really saying something. He's been even much more right wing extremist than Bush Jr., something I didn't think he ever would be. I know you would probably sincerely and respectfully disagree with me lol. Hope and pray you had a Merry Christmas edwardsna, and dnul too I really liked you as well. Hope you stay I got the impression that you may leave uselectionatlas. It's understandable. I'm kind of fed up with the U.S. political system myself right now. :-/

Last Edit: 2017-12-27 @ 08:21:44

 By: man_of_honor885 (-PA) 2018-11-06 @ 06:32:28  
Well I can't say exactly what I am even doing here but its pretty interesting looking at old predictions to see what people thought.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 576
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 334
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 227
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 6 3 104T192
P 2018 Senate 33/35 24/35 57/70 81.4% pie 135 0 24T483
P 2018 Governor 34/36 21/36 55/72 76.4% pie 66 2 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 23/56 74/112 66.1% pie 290 1 473T678
P 2014 Senate 35/36 20/36 55/72 76.4% pie 22 13 122T382
P 2012 President 54/56 39/56 93/112 83.0% pie 85 2 401T760
P 2011 Governor 4/4 3/4 7/8 87.5% pie 5 36 2T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 63 0 63T456
P 2008 President 53/56 43/56 96/112 85.7% pie 167 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 17/33 50/66 75.8% pie 21 7 117T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 16 0 50T264
P 2007 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 4 27 135T167
Aggregate Predictions 345/366 225/366 570/732 77.9% pie


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