Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:1

Prediction Map

dmurphy1984 Map

Prediction Key

Confidence Map

dmurphy1984 Map

Confidence Key

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	278
Rep	260
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	239
Rep	197
Ind	0
Tos	102

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-3	-1	-54	24	1	278	-54
Rep	+3	+1	+54	0	0	0	24	3	206	+54
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
91	48	36	5	2

Analysis

Close election at the finish, but Donald Trump falls just short. Popular vote margin of roughly Clinton +1.0%.

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy		Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2022 Senate	31/35	25/35	56/70	80.0%		1	1	147	T	305
2020 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%		2	10	179	T	684
2018 Senate	33/35	24/35	57/70	81.4%		1	12	24	T	483
2016 President	53/56	38/56	91/112	81.3%		1	1	8	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	18/34	49/68	72.1%		1	1	120	T	362
2014 Senate	36/36	26/36	62/72	86.1%		2	1	4	T	382
2012 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%		1	5	508	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	18/33	48/66	72.7%		1	0	144	T	343
2010 Senate	33/37	27/37	60/74	81.1%		4	0	54	T	456
2008 President	49/56	32/56	81/112	72.3%		3	7	474	T	1,505
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	21/33	52/66	78.8%		5	6	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	17/36	52/72	72.2%		1	176	107	T	312
2004 President	55/56	37/56	92/112	82.1%		15	11	126	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	520/559	364/559	884/1118	79.1%

Links

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