Prediction Map

Prediction States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	265
Rep	273
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 |	538 |
Dem	243
Rep	259
Ind	0
Tos	36

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-5	-1	-67	22	1	265	-67
Rep	+5	+1	+67	0	0	0	24	3	206	+67
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
83	46	30	5	2

Analysis

Final prediction<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rn<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rnNational Popular Vote-<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rn<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rnHillary Clinton- 46.4% <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rnDonald Trump- 45.9%<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rn<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />rnState by State Results:<br /> Alabama- 65-35<br /> Alaska- 50-38<br /> Arizona- 50-46<br /> Arkansas- 58-42<br /> California- 64-36<br /> Colorado- 46-44<br /> Connecticut- 56-43<br /> Delaware- 52-40<br /> D.C. 93-7 Florida- 49.7-49.3 <br /> Georgia- 52-47<br /> Hawaii- 63-36<br /> Idaho- 61-31<br /> Illinois- 58-42 <br /> Indiana- 53-42 <br /> Iowa- 51-49<br /> Kansas- 59-40 <br /> Kentucky- 62-36<br /> Louisiana- 57-43<br /> Maine- 52-45<br /> Maryland- 65-34 <br /> Massachusetts- 60-39 <br /> Michigan- 51-48<br /> Minnesota- 52-46<br /> Mississippi- 56-44 <br /> Missouri- 53-40 <br /> Montana- 51-43<br /> Nebraska- 60-39 <br /> Nevada- 49-48<br /> New Hampshire- 48-46<br /> New Jersey- 51-40<br /> New Mexico- 50-44 <br /> New York- 57-43<br /> North Carolina- 51-47 <br /> North Dakota- 60-39 <br /> Ohio- 51-48 <br /> Oklahoma- 64-36 <br /> Oregon- 52-45 <br /> Pennsylvania- 50-48 <br /> Rhode Island- 62-37 <br /> South Carolina- 53-44 <br /> South Dakota- 57-42 <br /> Tennessee- 59-41<br /> Texas- 53-46<br /> Utah- 39-23-28 <br /> Vermont- 65-28 <br /> Virginia- 52-47 <br /> Washington- 52-40 <br /> West Virginia- 73-27<br /> Wisconsin- 51-47<br /> Wyoming- 64-26<br /><br />rn<br /><br />rn<br /> <br /> 90%

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 103

Final prediction<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> National Popular Vote-<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> Hillary Clinton- 46.4% <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> Donald Trump- 45.9%<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /> State by State Results:<br /> Alabama- 65-35<br /> Alaska- 50-38<br /> Arizona- 50-46<br /> Arkansas- 58-42<br /> California- 64-36<br /> Colorado- 46-44<br /> Connecticut- 56-43<br /> Delaware- 52-40<br /> D.C. 93-7 Florida- 49.7-49.3 <br /> Georgia- 52-47<br /> Hawaii- 63-36<br /> Idaho- 61-31<br /> Illinois- 58-42 <br /> Indiana- 53-42 <br /> Iowa- 51-49<br /> Kansas- 59-40 <br /> Kentucky- 62-36<br /> Louisiana- 57-43<br /> Maine- 52-45<br /> Maryland- 65-34 <br /> Massachusetts- 60-39 <br /> Michigan- 51-48<br /> Minnesota- 52-46<br /> Mississippi- 56-44 <br /> Missouri- 53-40 <br /> Montana- 51-43<br /> Nebraska- 60-39 <br /> Nevada- 49-48<br /> New Hampshire- 48-46<br /> New Jersey- 51-40<br /> New Mexico- 50-44 <br /> New York- 57-43<br /> North Carolina- 51-47 <br /> North Dakota- 60-39 <br /> Ohio- 51-48 <br /> Oklahoma- 64-36 <br /> Oregon- 52-45 <br /> Pennsylvania- 50-48 <br /> Rhode Island- 62-37 <br /> South Carolina- 53-44 <br /> South Dakota- 57-42 <br /> Tennessee- 59-41<br /> Texas- 53-46<br /> Utah- 39-23-28 <br /> Vermont- 65-28 <br /> Virginia- 52-47 <br /> Washington- 52-40 <br /> West Virginia- 73-27<br /> Wisconsin- 51-47<br /> Wyoming- 64-26

Version: 102

State by State Results:<br /> Alabama- 65-35<br /> Alaska- 49-40<br /> Arizona- 50-46<br /> Arkansas- 58-42<br /> California- 64-36<br /> Colorado- 48-46<br /> Connecticut- 56-43<br /> Delaware- 52-40<br /> Florida- 49-49 <br /> Georgia- 52-47<br /> Hawaii- 63-36<br /> Idaho- 61-31<br /> Illinois- 58-42 <br /> Indiana- 53-42 <br /> Iowa- 51-49<br /> Kansas- 59-40 <br /> Kentucky- 62-36<br /> Louisiana- 57-43<br /> Maine- 52-45<br /> Maryland- 65-34 <br /> Massachusetts- 60-39 <br /> Michigan- 51-48<br /> Minnesota- 52-46<br /> Mississippi- 56-44 <br /> Missouri- 53-40 <br /> Montana- 51-43<br /> Nebraska- 59-40 <br /> Nevada- 50-46<br /> New Hampshire- 48-46<br /> New Jersey- 51-40<br /> New Mexico- 50-44 <br /> New York- 57-43<br /> North Carolina- 51-47 <br /> North Dakota- 60-39 <br /> Ohio- 51-48 <br /> Oklahoma- 64-36 <br /> Oregon- 52-45 <br /> Pennsylvania- 50-48 <br /> Rhode Island- 62-37 <br /> South Carolina- 53-44 <br /> South Dakota- 57-42 <br /> Tennessee- 59-41<br /> Texas- 53-46<br /> Utah- 39-23-28 <br /> Vermont- 65-28 <br /> Virginia- 52-46 <br /> Washington- 52-40 <br /> West Virginia- 73-27<br /> Wisconsin- 51-47<br /> Wyoming- 64-26

Version: 98

It's now Nov 1. Trump would win if the election were today in a close contest. He would win the Electoral College and lose the Popular Vote. My election day prediction is that it will be Clinton +1 in the PV. I will be posting my final predictions soon.

Version: 96

Evidence of a Trump comeback. Will there be a November surprise? The race is beginning to become closer. Will be posting my final margins in each state and nationally before Election Day.

Version: 95

Clinton email investigation reopened. Trump was rebounding in the polls, now staging a comeback polls are close in the battleground states.<br /> <br /> Trump leading in FL, OH, IA<br /> Clinton narrowly leads in CO, NV, NH

Version: 92

Race trajectory seems to be stabilizing. Race is essentially a tie.<br /> <br /> OH- T +4<br /> NV- T +3<br /> NC- T +3<br /> IA- T +5<br /> CO- C +2<br /> PA- C +3<br /> FL- Tie<br /> MN- C +5<br /> MI- C +7<br /> WI- C +4<br /> NH- C +6<br /> VA- C +5

Version: 91

Trump +2

Version: 88

Clinton wins 3rd debate, election is over. Trump needed a comeback and to win this debate, it didn't happen.

Version: 87

Alabama- Trump 62-37<br />rnAlaska- Trump 43-37-10<br />rnArizona- Trump 50-48<br />rnArkansas- Trump 58-42<br />rnCalifornia- Clinton 63-37<br />rnColorado- Clinton 50-44-6<br />rnConnecticut- Clinton 61-39<br />rnDelaware- Clinton 58-42<br />rnD.C.- Clinton 92-8<br />rnFlorida- Trump 50-49<br />rnGeorgia- Trump 51-47<br />rnHawaii- Clinton 64-26<br />rnIdaho- Trump 52-38-10<br />rnIllinois- Clinton 53-40-7<br />rnIndiana- Trump 54-46<br />rnIowa- Trump 51-48<br />rnKansas- Trump 59-40<br />rnKentucky- Trump 60-39<br />rnLouisiana- Trump 57-43<br />rnMaine- Clinton 52-45<br />rnMaryland- Clinton 65-35<br />rnMassachusetts- Clinton 63-37<br />rnMichigan- Clinton 52-47<br />rnMinnesota- Clinton 53-44<br />rnMississippi- Trump 61-39<br />rnMissouri- Trump 52-45<br />rnMontana- Trump 51-40-9<br />rnNebraska- Trump 60-38-2<br />rnNevada- Trump 50-47-3<br />rnNew Hampshire- Trump 49-47-4<br />rnNew Jersey- Clinton 52-45<br />rnNew Mexico- Clinton 46-33-21<br />rnNew York- Clinton 56-44<br />rnNorth Carolina- Trump 51-49<br />rnNorth Dakota- Trump 60-39<br />rnOhio- Trump 52-47<br />rnOklahoma- Trump 64-30-6<br />rnOregon- Clinton 51-40-9<br />rnPennsylvania- Clinton 52-48<br />rnRhode Island- Clinton 63-36<br />rnSouth Carolina- Trump 53-46<br />rnSouth Dakota- Trump 57-43<br />rnTennessee- Trump 58-42<br />rnTexas- Trump 52-44<br />rnUtah- Trump 42-38-14-6<br />rnVermont- Clinton 49-27-23-1<br />rnVirginia- Clinton 53-44<br />rnWashington- Clinton 54-43<br />rnWest Virginia- Trump 72-27<br />rnWisconsin- Clinton 51-48<br />rnWyoming- Trump 64-23-13

Version: 84

Trump wins 2nd debate and should receive a 3 point bounce from his performance. Clinton's lead evaporates, and she was at her ceiling. He is now back in the race. More Clinton emails are expected to be released in the next 2 weeks. The 3rd debate will likely decide the winner of the election.

Version: 83

Before the 2nd debate.<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Clinton holds a lead in the majority of BG states.<br /><br /> <br /><br /> OH- +4<br /><br /> FL- +3<br /><br /> NC- +2<br /><br /> NV- Tie (+1)<br /><br /> CO- +11<br /><br /> NH- +2<br /><br /> VA- +12<br /><br /> PA- +8<br /><br /> <br /><br /> Trump holds a lead in IA.<br /><br /> <br /><br /> IA- +3<br /><br /> <br /><br /> <br /> <br /> It will be interesting to see how the debate unfolds. If Clinton wins the debate, the election is over. If Trump wins, however, he may see a resurgence and can stage a comeback. There are more emails being released in the next 2 weeks, and the impact of Hurricane Matthew's impact on the election remains to be seen. If Trump can defend himself and appear presidential while doing so, while also questioning Hillary's judgement and painting her out of touch with the American people, then he has a chance to win the debate. I still believe that he will complete the largest comeback in U.S. presidential history.

Version: 82

Trump tapes drop him in the polls. His only hope is the second debate for any chance of a comeback.

Version: 77

Clinton receives a significant post-debate bounce. She is currently +4 nationally. This is probably only short term and should recede by after the second debate. If Trump manages to win the last 2 debates, he will win the election and the opposite is true for Clinton. Romney won the first debate in 2012 and went on to eventually lose to Obama. This race is volatile and is unusual.<br /> <br /> Swing states:<br /> <br /> OH- TBA<br /> IA- TBA<br /> NV- C +6<br /> CO- C +7<br /> FL- C +3<br /> NH- C +9<br /> NC- C +4<br /> PA- C +5

Version: 74

PA is becoming a battleground again. Trump takes lead in CO, small lead in OH. The debate will determine the trend for the rest of the race.

Version: 73

ME showing a close race. Hillary winning CD1 & Trump ahead in CD2. CO, WI, PA moving toward Trump. Will need to see the impact of the first debate to determine future trajectory of the race

Version: 58

Polls show the race is tightening.

Version: 49

Not based on polls

Version: 40

Clinton post convention bounce at +9. Trump in some serious trouble in the polls after remarks he made about Khan. Should be interesting to see how polls stabilize in the coming months..

Version: 36

After Kaine VP announcement and RNC post convention bounce. Trump wins by 1.5%. Clinton edit after DNC will be coming soon.

Version: 35

Trump wins by +2

Version: 22

Margins<br /><br /> 0-3%- Toss-up<br /> 3-5%- Lean<br /> 5-10%- Safe

Version: 15

Kasich v. Clinton

Version: 14

Cruz v. Clinton

Version: 9

Kasich v. Clinton

Version: 8

Rubio v. Sanders

Version: 7

Kasich v. Clinton

Version: 6

Rubio v. Clinton

Version: 5

Sanders v. Kasich

Version: 3

Kasich v. Clinton

Version: 2

Kasich v. Clinton

Version: 1

A plausible scenario for Walker v. Clinton.

Version History

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