Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:3
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Analysis
Shifted a few things around in the end; gave GA to Trump, AK to Clinton. Still can't imagine either major candidate winning UT; gave the state to McMullin, even though he seems to be receding. Final PV to be C50-T42-J5-Other3 (would be amusing to see McMullin beat Stein for fourth place, though I think it's doubtful). Final EV projection is C362-T170-M6. <br /> <br /> Even if Trump were to sweep all Tossups and Leans D states, there is a rock-hard 274 EV safe Clinton firewall that is clearly not penetrable. <br /> <br /> Went out on a bit of a limb for Ohio, but I really don't see it coming together for Trump. Might swing to him, but won't be enough for a win.
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Version: 2 Mostly stylistic changes, the majority of which are in Hillary's favor; shifted Arizona to her and Texas to tossup. Gave Utah to other just because it's impossible for me to fathom Hillary or Trump carrying it at this point -- gun to my head, I would assume the folks who left Trump after the Deseret News piece go to McMullin, and he carries the state, but I legitimately have no idea and would really like to see polling. Would not be surprised if the winner has under 30%, by the way. National popular vote numbers are along the lines of H48-T35-J9-S2-Other1. Version: 1 Realized I hadn't actually made one yet this cycle.
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