PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - ReaganClinton16 (D-CT) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:14

Prediction Map
ReaganClinton16 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ReaganClinton16 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem323
 
Rep215
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem239
 
Rep191
 
Ind0
 
Tos108
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15-20-24252308-9
Rep+20+24-10-15233191+9
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
67461740
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

The final prediction.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 12

It's over... Isn't it? Maybe the Trump supporters were right, that he would do just as well or better than Hillary on election day. It's disappointing for me to think that, but it could be true. The only question I have, is why? Why did the re-opening of the email scandal make Trump shoot up in the polls and Clinton do the opposite? There's not even solid evidence that there were new e-mails, and the source of it all comes from a vague letter from the FBI director that makes no sense. It all doesn't make sense. I just hope that Trump doesn't swing anymore states.


Version: 11

State Changes: Florida: Tossup Clinton (30%) ----> Tossup Trump (30%) --- Colorado: Lean Clinton (40%) ----> Tossup Clinton (30%) --- Arizona: Tossup Clinton (30%) ----> Tossup Trump (30%) --- North Carolina: Tossup Clinton (40%) ----> Tossup Clinton (30%)


Version: 10

State Changes: Colorado: Lean Clinton (50%) ----> Lean Clinton (40%) --- Florida: Tossup Clinton (40%) ----> Tossup Clinton (30%)


Version: 9

State Changes: Ohio: Tossup Clinton (30%) ----> Tossup Trump (30%) --- Nevada: Tossup Trump (30%) ----> Tossup Clinton (30%) --- North Carolina: Tossup Clinton (30%) ----> Tossup Clinton (40%)


Version: 8

State Changes: Utah: Lean Trump (50%) ----> Tossup McMullin (30%) --- Nevada: Tossup Clinton (40%) ----> Tossup Trump (30%) --- Arizona: Tossup Trump (30%) ----> Tossup Clinton (30%) --- Texas: Strong Trump (50%) ----> Lean Trump (40%) --- Alabama: Strong Trump (70%) ----> Strong Trump (60%) Pennsylvania: Strong Clinton (60%) ----> Lean Clinton (40%) --- District of Columbia: Strong Clinton (90%) ----> Strong Clinton (80%) --- Maine CD2: Lean Trump (40%) ----> Tossup Trump (30%) --- Note: Utah switching to McMullin is not so likely to happen, but a faithless elector may give him a vote.


Version: 7

So, Trump's campaign is imploding on itself after the tapes were leaked, and it shows. A new poll has come out saying that Clinton has a chance at Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska CD 2, and Maine CD2, as well as Utah, where she is currently tied with Trump. Clinton has also gained a small lead in Ohio and may pick one up soon in Arizona.


Version: 6

Another small update, Trump's lead is going down in Arizona, so it has been changed to a tossup state.


Version: 5

Small update: made Iowa a tossup, since the race is tightening a bit there. (according to fivethirtyeight.com)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Analysis: RCP shows that Clinton has taken many leads in many states. She's increased leads in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida, as well as picked up leads in Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina. Trump has strengthened his lead in Ohio, which makes me think that Ohio, for the first time since 1960, may vote for the loosing candidate.


Version: 4

Well, tonight is the Vice Presidential debate, and RCP shows that Clinton has taken many leads in many states. She's increased leads in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Florida, as well as picked up leads in Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina. Trump has strengthened his lead in Ohio, which makes me think that Ohio, for the first time since 1960, may vote for the loosing candidate.


Version: 3

Just as I updated the map, we get some new polls... So, what happened? New polls show that both candidates are up by .5 in some states, Clinton takes Florida and Trump takes Colorado. Trump still leads well in Nevada, but has weakened slightly in North Carolina, which I've changed to a tossup state. Like I said before, I believe Ohio may turn Democratic by the time Nov. 8th rolls around. Anyways, tonight is the first debate, and it seems it has already changed the polls up a bit.


Version: 2

GOP has taken a decent lead in both NC and Nevada, but it's too close to tell who will definitively win it. Florida is a dead heat, but i put it under DEM because it looks like it will swing that way in the coming days. (Note: Florida is now leaning GOP by .1 so I guess I'm wrong.) Ohio is still leaning GOP, but by the end of this, I believe it will go DEM.


Version: 1

Though OH and FL are currently looking Rep, they are weak, which is why I'm predicting them to go Dem. Democrats have been usually polling better in those states. NC is weak Dem, but I believe it will stay Dem. and be won by them by >1%. As of 9/17, Trump is, and has been polling well in Maine CD2, with an RCP Average of +5.4.


Version History


Member Comments
 By: ReaganClinton16 (D-CT) 2016-11-09 @ 18:23:58 prediction Map
Wow. He won. That was the greatest surprise I've ever seen.


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 92 14T192
P 2018 Senate 32/35 18/35 50/70 71.4% pie 22 0 246T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 15 2 189T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 5 80 40T149
P 2016 President 50/56 17/56 67/112 59.8% pie 14 0 597T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 9/34 41/68 60.3% pie 5 3 336T362
Aggregate Predictions 151/166 67/166 218/332 65.7% pie



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