PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - Beaver2 (D-VA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:5

Prediction Map
Beaver2 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Beaver2 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem323
 
Rep215
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem270
 
Rep197
 
Ind0
 
Tos71
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15-20-24252308-9
Rep+20+24-10-15233191+9
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
81462942
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Clinton victory. Picks up NC from 2012 while losing Ohio and Iowa.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Clinton victory, but Trump picks up Iowa and the Maine second. McMullin wins in Utah.


Version: 3

It looks like it is going to be Trump vs. Clinton. The latest numbers I have seen put Clinton up, but some firms are putting Trump ahead. Trump will probably end up winning. People say demographics will be an issue, but they also said he wouldn't get the nomination, and look how that turned out. Don't underestimate Trump. I think at this point that he will win. I don't have a national establishment candidate in the running because I don't think that will happen. However, Utah's status as a tossup comes from the fact that there could be a surge of support for the Libertarian, or a conservative establishment candidate could run in that state only.


Version: 2

Predictions for a Clinton vs. Cruz race. Clinton erodes Cruz's support in many states and gains support for the Democrats in less rural areas.


Version: 1

I expect the map to remain the same. I believe I changed the percentages in a few states, but I do not think they will change enough to allow any states to flip. I think NC, Iowa, and WI will remain how they are now, though a Walker candidacy would probably change that.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 32/35 28/35 60/70 85.7% pie 1 1 48T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 1 1 88T272
P 2020 President 53/56 40/56 93/112 83.0% pie 2 6 260T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 1 4 66T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 7/11 18/22 81.8% pie 1 6 51T293
P 2019 Governor 2/3 1/3 3/6 50.0% pie 1 147 104T192
P 2018 Senate 31/35 20/35 51/70 72.9% pie 3 1 211T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 22/36 54/72 75.0% pie 1 3 148T372
P 2016 President 50/56 31/56 81/112 72.3% pie 5 0 194T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 2 175 60T362
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 168 8T112
Aggregate Predictions 310/340 219/340 529/680 77.8% pie



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