PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - thornestorm (G-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:1

Prediction Map
thornestorm MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
thornestorm MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem352
 
Rep186
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem266
 
Rep186
 
Ind0
 
Tos86
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+20+26-10-6262326+20
Rep+10+6-20-26223180-20
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
77442742
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

This ugly and unique campaign season has finally(and mercifully) come to an end. Trump's last hope based on Hillary's emails, which was sparked by Comey's unprecedented statement inserting himself into the campaign, has been squashed by Comey himself<br /> saying there was nothing illegal about the e-mails. Any last-last<br /> minute momentum therefore goes to Hillary, for what it is worth.<br /> The race goes back to its usual paradigm, which is Hillary holding<br /> a solid lead in the popular vote. This is based on her over-performing on the basis of Blacks, Latinos, Asians, and White college-educated people. Trump in turn is over-performing among the White non-college educated, but that is not enough compensation; there simply aren't enough of them. The Latino population has been growing rapidly for decades, and now they will<br /> start voting in percentages closer to Whites and Blacks. Asians are also a rapidly growing population, and have tended to vote heavily<br /> for Democrats, further adding to Trump's problems. In the electoral college, the closest states should be Arizona and Ohio, with Latinos in Arizona and Blacks in Ohio giving Hillary a very narrow win in each state.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 48/56 29/56 77/112 68.8% pie 1 0 369T678
P 2014 Senate 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 1 1 200T382
P 2014 Governor 28/36 14/36 42/72 58.3% pie 2 0 211T300
P 2012 President 56/56 46/56 102/112 91.1% pie 11 0 47T760
P 2010 Senate 35/37 24/37 59/74 79.7% pie 2 0 63T456
P 2008 President 53/56 36/56 89/112 79.5% pie 5 0 247T1,505
Aggregate Predictions 251/277 169/277 420/554 75.8% pie


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