PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-07 Version:37

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem322
 
Rep216
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem307
 
Rep197
 
Ind0
 
Tos34
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+10+15-2-1-25251307-10
Rep+2+1+25-10-15233191+10
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
84463053
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

I'm incapable of doing anything resembling detailed analysis at this point, as I'm just mentally exhausted from this campaign, so I'll keep this brief. During the last week of this election, it does look like Hillary Clinton has stopped the bleeding that had started about two weeks ago and intensified after the Comey announcement about reviewing Hillary's emails one last time (and then finding only duplicates). There is also likely a substantial surge in Hispanic voters that has not been picked up very well by the polling, but which is showing up clearly in the early vote, making me more confident about states like Nevada and Florida than I otherwise would be. I am terribly disappointed that this election is unlikely to be a landslide rejection of Donald Trump's candidacy, as it bodes ill for what is going to be acceptable in our country's politics (both in terms of personal candidate behavior and in terms of policy) going forward, but at this point, with an unstable authoritarian banging against the gates of our republic, I will take whatever victory I can get without complaint. And while I do believe Hillary Clinton will win, I remain extraordinarily nervous about tomorrow night, given the grave nature of the threat that I believe Donald Trump represents to our civil society. Lastly, as is my tradition for my presidential predictions, I leave you with one final word: VOTE


Prediction History
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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 264
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie



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