Election 2016 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:5

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	297
Rep	241
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	200
Rep	215
Ind	0
Tos	123

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	0	0	-4	-1	-35	23	1	297	-35
Rep	+4	+1	+35	0	0	0	24	3	206	+35
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
82	45	31	5	1

Analysis

Polls are all over the place. The mainstream ones seem to have Clinton up a point or two. The historically most accurate one has Trump up by 2. I could see PA and MI going one way or the other at this point, as I feel with FL as well for different reasons. So I have Hillary up by Florida, or Michigan and Pennsylvania collectively, but my confidence is not very high on that. I guess we will find out tonight (hopefully).

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2016 President	50/56	32/56	82/112	73.2%	5	0	149	T	678
2012 President	49/56	40/56	89/112	79.5%	7	1	508	T	760
2012 Senate	24/33	8/33	32/66	48.5%	1	1	323	T	343
Aggregate Predictions	123/145	80/145	203/290	70.0%

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