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Date of Prediction: 2016-11-08 Version:3

Prediction Map
Vosem MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Vosem MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem362
 
Rep170
 
Ind6
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem341
 
Rep154
 
Ind0
 
Tos43
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+3+1+30000272332+30
Rep000-4-1-36202170-36
Ind+10+6000000+6


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
67412231
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

Shifted a few things around in the end; gave GA to Trump, AK to Clinton. Still can't imagine either major candidate winning UT; gave the state to McMullin, even though he seems to be receding. Final PV to be C50-T42-J5-Other3 (would be amusing to see McMullin beat Stein for fourth place, though I think it's doubtful). Final EV projection is C362-T170-M6. <br /> <br /> Even if Trump were to sweep all Tossups and Leans D states, there is a rock-hard 274 EV safe Clinton firewall that is clearly not penetrable. <br /> <br /> Went out on a bit of a limb for Ohio, but I really don't see it coming together for Trump. Might swing to him, but won't be enough for a win.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2016 President 44/56 23/56 67/112 59.8% pie 3 0 597T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 16/34 47/68 69.1% pie 4 0 213T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 8 2 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 7 2 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 0 98T
Aggregate Predictions 142/164 85/164 227/328 69.2% pie



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