There almost certainly won't be any surprises in the strong/lean states, so that puts the EV count at 268 C - 157 T. Of the toss-ups, NV and NH lean heavily Clinton while IA and GA lean Trump which makes it 278 C - 179 T. Of NC, FL, OH, and AZ; Clinton is narrowly ahead in NC and FL, narrowly behind in AZ, and OH is the true tossup of this election. I think the combination of her superior GOTV operation and the Latino surge will deliver her all 4 states making it 351 C - 179 T. Utah is a unique situation where it's a toss-up between Trump and McMullin, but I think Trump should carry it due to R consolidation making it 351 C - 185 T. Finally, I gave both NE-2 and ME-2 EVs to Clinton to make it 353 C - 185 T. Both these districts are seriously under-polled, so I'm giving them to Clinton again due to superior GOTV.<br /> <br /> There is quite a bit of uncertainty in this election, much more so than in 2012. It's very unlikely for Trump to win at this point, but he could narrow the margin down quite a bit and only lose by something like 278-260.