Date of Prediction: 2016-05-09 Version:15
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Trump's got this in the bag. :)
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Version: 14 Trump blowout tomorrow. It's over. Version: 13 The day of the Wisconsin primary. I think Trump has a shock victory. But Cruz and Kasich are delusional and still will refuse to acknowledge reality. Both will stay in the race. Version: 12 The day of Utah and Arizona. Cruz will probably be pretty close to 50% in UT. Trump will definitely be close to 50% in AZ. Version: 11 Day before OH and FL. Only state that is hard to call is OH. Rubio out after tomorrow for sure. I think Trump ekes Kasich in OH. Cruz won't quit until it gets down to a two way race and he's still losing everything. Version: 10 D.C. is sort of hard to peg. Kasich and Rubio did well in N. Va. But the people that live in D.C. are a lot different than the rich snobs that commute into D.C. for work from VA. Trump has a touch with these kinds of people. I think he ekes a win. Version: 9 Day before Michigan. Trump favored in all four states except Hawaii caucuses. Not only a caucus but no polling there, so very hard to peg. Version: 8 Day before Louisiana. Trump favored in all 4 contests. Version: 7 Day before Super Tuesday. I think Trump sweeps. Only place with a good chance for anyone else to get a victory is Cruz in Texas. Version: 6 The day before the NV caucus. Trump will win. The question is the margin. I think he breaks 40%. Hopefully Cruz claims a distant second because that does maximum damage to Rubio. Version: 5 The day before the SC primary. Trump wins in a walk. Around 37%. Cruz and Rubio finish close together for second and third. Narrow edge to Cruz. Bush quits after SC. Version: 4 The day before the New Hampshire primary. Trump has it in the bag. The only question is the margin over the second place finisher. Kasich, Christie, Bush, Rubio, and Cruz are all in a pile in the low teens battling for second place. Rubio has (thank GOD) imploded since the final debate after exposing himself as a fraud, empty suit, and liar. I see Kasich, Christie, or Bush taking second, as Cruz has also imploded in the wake of the Carson vote-stealing scandal. Version: 3 The day before the Iowa caucuses and the edge is to Trump. If Trump wins Iowa, the race is effectively over as he is strongly favored in the other nominating contests in February: New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. If he wins Iowa, he will win every race in February, and the laws of political momentum indicate that at that point, the race is over. Before Super Tuesday, Trump will be the de facto nominee. Cruz will probably win a few contests on Super Tuesday, by which time the race will be down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. But I expect Cruz and Rubio to be gone after the Michigan primary, as Trump will be very close to 50%, even with both of them still in the race. Trump will be left as the sole candidate in the field by mid-March. Version: 2 I see Marco Rubio imploding at this point and Chris Christie becoming the establishment choice, but too weak and more importantly too late at that point for it to do any good. The race will largely be seen as a race between Trump and Cruz by that time and I expect both to quit at around the same time after they are Trumped in the Florida primary. Version: 1 My prediction for now is that fairly early on, the race will come down to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. The three will fail to put it away until Trump takes OH and FL, effectively ending Rubio's campaign due to humiliation/delegate math and Cruz's campaign due to delegate math.
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