PredictionsMock2016 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2016-05-09 Version:15

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Kasich0
 
Bush0
 
Rubio1
 
Cruz3
 
Trump48
 
Carson0
 
Other0
 
 

Confidence States Won
26 |
52 |
pie
Kasich0
 
Bush0
 
Rubio0
 
Cruz1
 
Trump39
 
Carson0
 
Other0
 
Tossup12
 

Analysis

Trump's got this in the bag. :)


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 14

Trump blowout tomorrow. It's over.


Version: 13

The day of the Wisconsin primary. I think Trump has a shock victory. But Cruz and Kasich are delusional and still will refuse to acknowledge reality. Both will stay in the race.


Version: 12

The day of Utah and Arizona. Cruz will probably be pretty close to 50% in UT. Trump will definitely be close to 50% in AZ.


Version: 11

Day before OH and FL. Only state that is hard to call is OH. Rubio out after tomorrow for sure. I think Trump ekes Kasich in OH. Cruz won't quit until it gets down to a two way race and he's still losing everything.


Version: 10

D.C. is sort of hard to peg. Kasich and Rubio did well in N. Va. But the people that live in D.C. are a lot different than the rich snobs that commute into D.C. for work from VA. Trump has a touch with these kinds of people. I think he ekes a win.


Version: 9

Day before Michigan. Trump favored in all four states except Hawaii caucuses. Not only a caucus but no polling there, so very hard to peg.


Version: 8

Day before Louisiana. Trump favored in all 4 contests.


Version: 7

Day before Super Tuesday. I think Trump sweeps. Only place with a good chance for anyone else to get a victory is Cruz in Texas.


Version: 6

The day before the NV caucus. Trump will win. The question is the margin. I think he breaks 40%. Hopefully Cruz claims a distant second because that does maximum damage to Rubio.


Version: 5

The day before the SC primary. Trump wins in a walk. Around 37%. Cruz and Rubio finish close together for second and third. Narrow edge to Cruz. Bush quits after SC.


Version: 4

The day before the New Hampshire primary. Trump has it in the bag. The only question is the margin over the second place finisher. Kasich, Christie, Bush, Rubio, and Cruz are all in a pile in the low teens battling for second place. Rubio has (thank GOD) imploded since the final debate after exposing himself as a fraud, empty suit, and liar. I see Kasich, Christie, or Bush taking second, as Cruz has also imploded in the wake of the Carson vote-stealing scandal.


Version: 3

The day before the Iowa caucuses and the edge is to Trump. If Trump wins Iowa, the race is effectively over as he is strongly favored in the other nominating contests in February: New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. If he wins Iowa, he will win every race in February, and the laws of political momentum indicate that at that point, the race is over. Before Super Tuesday, Trump will be the de facto nominee. Cruz will probably win a few contests on Super Tuesday, by which time the race will be down to Trump, Cruz, and Rubio. But I expect Cruz and Rubio to be gone after the Michigan primary, as Trump will be very close to 50%, even with both of them still in the race. Trump will be left as the sole candidate in the field by mid-March.


Version: 2

I see Marco Rubio imploding at this point and Chris Christie becoming the establishment choice, but too weak and more importantly too late at that point for it to do any good. The race will largely be seen as a race between Trump and Cruz by that time and I expect both to quit at around the same time after they are Trumped in the Florida primary.


Version: 1

My prediction for now is that fairly early on, the race will come down to Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. The three will fail to put it away until Trump takes OH and FL, effectively ending Rubio's campaign due to humiliation/delegate math and Cruz's campaign due to delegate math.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 246
P 2023 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 1 2 108T115
P 2022 Senate 30/35 22/35 52/70 74.3% pie 7 1 243T305
P 2022 Governor 30/36 21/36 51/72 70.8% pie 7 1 228T272
P 2021 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 1 7 1T118
P 2020 President 46/56 30/56 76/112 67.9% pie 5 6 655T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 23/35 54/70 77.1% pie 4 4 101T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 6 211T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 3 14T192
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T149
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T153
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T760
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T103
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 860/994 582/994 1442/1988 72.5% pie



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