Election 2016 Republican Presidential Primary Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2016-01-31 Version:9

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	0
Bush	0
Rubio	0
Cruz	1
Trump	4
Carson	0
Other	47

Confidence States Won

		26 \|	52 \|
Kasich	0
Bush	0
Rubio	0
Cruz	0
Trump	2
Carson	0
Other	0
Tossup	50

Analysis

Final update before Iowa. I decided to switch Iowa to Trump 20% in light of the results of the final Des Moines Register poll. I expect the final result to be close between Trump and Cruz, as I think it is reasonable to think that Cruz may benefit from late defections by Carson and maybe Huckabee voters, and a Cruz win is absolutely still possible. Or, alternatively, Trump's ground game could turn out to be a dud. It does feel safe to rule out a late Rubio surge large enough to put him into contention; he has only gotten maybe a 3% boost in the last week, which seems consistent with the typical post-Des Moines Register endorsement boost and is likely not a sign of anything substantial enough to put him in first. At the bottom of the pack, Huckabee and Santorum seem likely to be out of the race shortly after (perhaps before the end of) tomorrow night, and I wouldn't rule out rapid Carson and Fiorina withdrawals either.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2016-02-01 @ 01:11:40
Not sure what to make of these last-minute polls with Rubio suddenly jumping to around 20% in Iowa. Could be a late surge, could be two crappy pollsters (both have mediocre-to-bad ratings according to 538) with just bad results, or could be pollsters deliberately trying to get press attention by putting up "stunning" numbers. Hard to believe DMR/Selzer would have missed any late movement, but this has been such a weird cycle already that I don't know what to make of anything. Last Edit: 2016-02-01 @ 01:18:31

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2022 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	6	1	124	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	29/36	63/72	87.5%	6	1	11	T	272
2020 President	52/56	39/56	91/112	81.3%	18	6	359	T	684
2018 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	26	1	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	23/36	55/72	76.4%	26	3	122	T	372
2016 President	51/56	33/56	84/112	75.0%	37	1	87	T	678
2014 Senate	34/36	26/36	60/72	83.3%	11	4	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	17/36	48/72	66.7%	6	3	73	T	300
2012 President	56/56	45/56	101/112	90.2%	30	1	77	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	22/33	54/66	81.8%	7	1	40	T	343
2012 Rep Primary	45/52	19/52	64/104	61.5%	42	-	25	T	231
2010 Senate	35/37	30/37	65/74	87.8%	26	1	5		456
2010 Governor	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	6	1	29	T	312
2008 President	52/56	44/56	96/112	85.7%	19	1	74	T	1,505
2008 Dem Primary	37/52	19/52	56/104	53.8%	15	-	58	T	271
Aggregate Predictions	589/649	421/649	1010/1298	77.8%

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