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Date of Prediction: 2020-01-16 Version:5
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
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Prediction History
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Version: 7 President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN)<br /> Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) Version: 3 President Donald Trump (R-FL) / Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN) vs. Fmr. Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE) / Fmr. State Congresswoman Stacey Abrams (D-GA) Version: 1 Trump/Pence defeat Warren/Buttigieg. Warren underperforms at the debates and runs a weak campaign. With Mexican-American turnout down- Trump doesn't seem so scary anymore and Warren offends natives- Washoe County, Nevada flips and the margins decrease in Las Vegas enough to flip the state narrowly. Worsening Democratic performance among white Catholics, and appeals to libertarians by Trump, result in New Hampshire flipping. Enough of Detroit turns out to flip Michigan back to Warren. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida narrowly stay Republican. Trump either loses the popular vote or wins it by less than 1%.
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