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Date of Prediction: 2020-03-11 Version:3
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Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
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Version 3. Trump +5 versus Biden in the popular vote.
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Version: 6 Version 6. Version: 5 Version 5. Global pandemic, historical unemployment, and president-turned-dictator-endorsed-police-state version. Version: 4 Version 4. Who the hell knows anymore. Version: 3 Version 3. Trump +5 versus Biden in the popular vote. Version: 2 Version 2. With Biden as the nominee, I predict Trump wins by at least 5 percent of the popular vote with the this result in the Electoral College. Version: 1 Disclaimer: since this is my first prediction this year, this is my realistic tie-scenario. This also serves as Donald Trump's most realistic ceiling at the moment. Still feels like a way too early prediction. I am assuming this is a Bernie nomination and things winnow down in the week leading up to the election. Problems: polling is scarce, and it depends on his VP pick. Tammy Baldwin would obviously be enough to flip Wisconsin I think.
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