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Date of Prediction: 2020-07-12 Version:148
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
Cautiously optimistic with a capital "C."
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 191 I still maintain something rotten is going on, despite this map. To win, Trump must flip two out of these three states in this scenario. Yes, I do have Trump "winning" FL, GA, and NC, even if he loses all 3 states. I can even see IA and TX flipping, maybe, but less likely OH too IMHO. I can easily see Trump being awarded PA, even if, and probably when (yes you read right) loses the state. Now the other two: WI and AZ, are trickier. WI, only because I think white evangelicals are not as strong politically there, as in the rest of the Rust Belt, and Trump seems to have lost some significant support there, more than the other swing states. I don't know how Arizona's election systerm works, but its state government is almost certainly controlled by Republicans, since it's always been a GOP-leaning state. I can see the Hispanic vote there easily being disenfranchised. That's why I say, if you see thievery of this election, it will be in the southern states: FL, NC, GA, and TX, which is not all that surprising, OH and IA, which sadly are less so, but still not trustworthy by any stretch of the imagination, and yes, PA, AZ, and WI as well. PA's election tallies actually aren't the problem in that state. It's their system of electors, which makes it possible for Trump to be awarded them, regardless. Also, Trump is "conveniently gaining big time" in the polls. Something rotten is going on my friends. I want to be wrong like I never have been in my life. My vibes are saying so too. Watch out, my fellow liberals. Something fishy is going on in this election, but we already knew that anyway. Wait and see as always. Version: 190 As of right now, I think FL, WI, PA, AZ, and NC will decide it all. I think either WI or AZ will be "conveniently" awarded to Trump, along with PA, NC, and FL even if he doesn't win any of the five states, which he probably won't. He may even lose GA, TX, IA, and OH, and yet still "conveniently" have more votes than Biden in every single state. My guess is PA and AZ as of now, but I'm torn 50/50 between AZ and WI. AZ is currently closer, but WI could easily be awarded to Trump as well. Chaos is looking likely unfortunately. The fix may very well be in. I hope and pray I am wrong, like I never have been before in my entire life. Wait and see as always indeed! Version: 189 I think this will actually be the actual result of the election, but that still doesn't mean Biden will be awarded victory. Sounds weird I know, but please hear me out. Why are Republican supporters so darn confident, are "100 percent certain," and "know beyond a shadow of a doubt," that Trump is going to win, and 99.99 percent of those by a landslide, "no matter what?" I smell a big time rat. I think 99.9 percent of us who will not vote for Trump, smell the same rat as I do. I think the fix may already be in. Republicans are just way too darn confident about this thing, that they know beyond an absolute shadow of a doubt, that Trump will come out on top. No matter what. Yes, Republicans are almost always more confident in USA elections than us Democrats are, as a general rule, but they way too confident, and way too giddy, even according to their standards. I've always said as long as those "loyal and true" 45 percent of Trump loyalists stay faithful to Trump, he has at least a 50/50 chance in this election. Guess what? They have stayed just that, even through COVID-19. Republicans act like they know they are going to win this thing. Trump supporters are judy way too confident right now for my blood, even for them. I am not getting good vibes at all about this election, even with me 99.9 percent certain Biden will win a legitimate (yes you heard me right), significant Electoral College win. Something is just not right about this darn election, 100 percent certain. Wait and see as always. Something is going on, and it's not good my friends. 100 percent certain. Version: 187 Yes, TX may actually be more winnable for Biden than FL is, as weird as that may seem to be... Version: 185 Flipped GA back to Democratic, because of yesterday's COVID news, even though I don't know if it will really affect that politically, or not.... Version: 184 Flipped GA back, at least as of right now. The Dem advantage in early voting looks encouraging, but it did in 2016 too. This thing is far from over... Version: 182 As weird and as depressing as it may seem, I can still easily see this occurring, after all this. I'm 100 percent serious, too. Version: 178 Why am I doing my worst case scenario map after Trump contacted the coronavirus, you ask? Or supposedly contracted it? I feel this may just be a political ploy on his part, and that's it. The odds are he probably did, after Hope Hicks and the Secret Service contracted it as well, but with Trump, you never know. We Dems can't rest just because of this, 100 percent certain. I feel that may be what Trump is trying to do, if this is the case. After hearing that Hicks and the Secret Service both have had problems with it, it looks like it may actually be true! Wait and see as always! Version: 176 PA appears to be the key state now, instead of WI, with AZ, FL, and NC a close 2nd, 3rd and 4th respectively... Version: 175 Right now, it's a 50/50 tossup... Version: 173 The map says it all. :-/ Version: 172 Watch the politics of college football. It could actually help Trump a lot more than we Democrats feel it will. Sadly, I'm 100 percent serious too.... Version: 171 I think this would be the result, if the election were held today. Notice I gave NC and yes even GA too, to Biden, but FL to Trump. Why may you ask? Even TX may be more possible than FL right now, as weird as it may seem, It seems that Biden is not resonating with Hispanic voters in FL, Cuban Americans in particular. This also could be a major concern in AZ too, if Mexican American voters do the same, and forget about TX 100 percent certain if that happens. This thing is far from over my friends, 100 percent certain. We Dems ain't won anything yet. Those who think we have, need a reality check, again 100 percent certain... Version: 170 In a normal time, this would be a Democratic blowout. This is not a normal time. Funny, even with the Democratic base more fired up than ever in my lifetime, even much more so than 2008 (and I never, ever thought it could be more fired up than it was back then), why do I have a bad feeling about this election, that the fix may very well may be in for Trump to be re-elected? I think Facebook and Twitter are the only reasons Trump has a shot at this, and probably other forms of the Internet and social media as well. No matter who wins or loses, chaos and trouble are on the horizon I'm afraid. If there is a God in heaven, let me be wrong like I have never been before, Lord, please.... Version: 168 Florida and Texas look much more favorable for Trump. What a surprise. :-/ Florida is especially bad news for us Dems, for very obvious reasons. :-/ Wisconsin and Minnesota (sad but true) are dead heats. Michigan looks good, and probably Pennsylvania (though surprisingly not as solid) as well. I wouldn't count on Georgia, North Carolina, or Texas. The Rust Belt, Florida, and Arizona looks like the places that will decide this election... Version: 167 Right now, it's 50/50 as to whom will win this thing, making post-Election Day chaos an almost 100 percent guaranteed certainty! :-/ In fact, don't be surprised if NE-2 and ME-2 decide this thing, and I'm not joking! Version: 166 I have changed my mind yet again, and now have Trump losing again (more so than Biden winning of course). While the enthusiasm for Trump among both his rabid and silent supporters, is indeed "off the charts" like Michael Moore said, I believe the desire to get rid of Trump among his detractors seems to be even greater, at least of right now. Thus, I have Biden ahead. But of course, that is definitely still subject to change. This election will be decided by turnout most of all, and by the few remaining and declining number and percentage of independent voters. There is a skepticism for Biden among young black voters too as of right now. The question is though, will that skepticism override their desire to "dump Trump?" Right now, I say "no," but only cautiously. The same is true with other left wingers and progessives, including Bernie voters. While Biden is not their 1st choice (and he definitely wasn't mine either), their desire to get rid of Trump seems to be overriding that. Whether that is really the case remains to be seen. It wasn't in 2016, when Hillary lost, but it does seem to be the case this time. The election turned IMHO with COVID-19. Trump probably would have added MN, NH, and probably ME too, and perhaps NV too, if COVID-19 had never struck, regardless of the racial protests. Also, how many silent Trump supporters are currently out there? Are they more in number and percentage than we think, perhaps even more so than 2016? Finally, the "law and order" issue. Will the BLM protests, along with alleged riots and looting, work in Trump's favor? Really, that seems to be what he's banking on right now, since it's obvious COVID-19 is a losing issue for him. It has indeed worked somewhat, but not as much as I originally thought, at least that's what it seems as of right now. And will those silent Trump supporters override the desire of his opponents to "dump Trump?" So far, the answer seems to be "no." This to me, is the 2020 election in a nutshell. Wait and see as always. Version: 165 I want to wrong like I never have been before in my entire life, for both the USA and world's sake... Version: 164 Sad. But. True. Version: 163 The "law and order" shtick is working more than the COVID situation, as much as I hate to say it. Sad. Version: 162 Had to move WI into the GOP column as of now, after the unrest concerning Jacob Blake, unfortunately.... Version: 161 First time I've had Trump winning in a long time. Guess why? The thing you'd least expect: Sports my friends! Yes, I think players now not playing, will actually give Trump and Republicans the advantage, as weird as it may seem. Yes, I have MN going for Trump, and AZ, WI and MI all going for Biden. You you are reading me right. NH may very well join MN as well. My prediction as of now: a 6 million popular vote win for Biden, plus a resounding 51-47 percentage win, yet narrow 1 percent losses in PA, MN (yes you read me right), and FL will cost him the election. NC, GA, and TX (yes you read me right again) will all be narrow 2 point and less losses for Biden as well. I never want to be wrong, ever, like I am, right now... Version: 159 The latest CNN poll has Biden only up by 4 points. The headline was, "Should Democrats panic?" Hell yeah we should! CNN polls are generally some of the most reliable ones out there. As far as Kamala Harris is concerned, she is probably the best that Biden could have done, under the circumstances. Elizabeth Warren may have very well been picked, except for her age, and perhaps her skin color too. I still think it will go down to the wire. With Trump after the USPS, anything and everything could happen in 2020. Wait and see indeed. Watch Halloween and the NCAA football thing too. Americans tend to vote on crap like that, more than folks in any other nation, sad to say, and those two issues could help Trump, a lot more than we Dems want to believe. Version: 158 Trump is trying to cut, and probably eliminate in time, the payroll tax, which would devastate Social Security. Why isn't our esteemed media covering this? Version: 154 I could be wrong, but I think there are a lot of "silent Trump supporters" again in 2020, just like there were in 2016, especially in the Deep South. That's why I have North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, and yes even Florida too, all going for Trump, despite what the polls are saying. I still think this election will be won/lost in the Rust Belt and Arizona, and maybe Florida too. Trump has to have Florida. Without it, he is almost certainly toast, regardless of what happens everywhere else... Version: 153 My prediction: chaos no matter what the elections results turn up. Please let me be wrong. Please. Version: 152 The Trump Bradley Effect map. I do believe there are indeed a good number of silent Trump voters out there. The reason I say that is because most polls show 2/3 of the American people support mask mandates. Living in Trump Country myself, I know for an absolute fact that is nowhere close to the truth. Heck, you'll be lucky to find 1/4 of the population wearing them here, usually less, not even medical personnel! I'm serious too. Not joking at all. That is why I say that. And the anti-Democratic hate is off the charts in Trump Country too, some of it is due to Trump, but most of it due to anti-Obama and anti-Hillary sentiment, which existed here long before Trump came along. Even those who are skeptical of Trump aren't voting Democratic my friends. No Matter What. I do feel we Dems have the edge right now, mostly because of COVID-19, and anti-Trump sentiment, which is much greater now than in 2016. Many Dems either thought we had the election won, didn't like Hillary. and didn't hate Trump as much as they do now. Plus, the anti-Biden sentiment isn't as great as the anti-Hillary sentiment, but still greater than most Dems think, simply because of the Democratic hate here in Trump Country. I'd still be careful in November. A lot can still happen between now and then. A vaccine can be created, the economy could recover, or something else. Underrated, watch Halloween too! I'm 100 percent serious my friends! It comes right before the presidential election is currently scheduled, and many kids, especially in Trump Country, won't be happy about possibly not going Trick or Treating, especially the blackface-whiteface brouhaha over Halloween costumes as well. Halloween violence could even shift the election one way or the other, especially in a 50/50 nation such as the USA. I'm serious too my friends! Americans sad to say probably vote on insignificant crap like that, more than folks in any other country. Election Day 2020 is still an eternity away, and anything and everything can and does happen in American politics, and does so daily! Wait and see as always! Version: 150 I cannot talk to even one white evangelical Christian Trump supporter about religion and politics in the USA right now. Not one. Yes, that's how toxic things in this country have become, in both areas... Version: 149 Biden is the favorite as of right now, but we ain't won nothing yet. Still plenty of time left for Trump to make a comeback. Trump's support is higher than it has been for any Republican among his base in my lifetime, but so is his opposition among the Democratic base, which is weird, since I thought no Republican would ever be more unpopular among my fellow rank and file Dems as Bush Jr. was, and Trump is a million times even more unpopular among us, than even Bush was. Three things will decide this election: which base turns out the vote more; the white evangelical vote, or lack thereof; and the fewer than ever in number but still crucial "middle of the road" voters in those key swing states. Like I said, things can change in politics on a daily basis. COVID-19 so far is the game changer. Racial injustice is a 2nd factor as well, but far less significant. Anything and everything can and will happen in politics, and does so daily. Wait and see as always! Version: 148 Cautiously optimistic with a capital "C." Version: 145 82 percent of white evangelicals say they're voting for Trump, an "increase" (let that sink in) over 2016. That tells me that even now, NC, GA, and TX are still stretches, and probably FL too. If this is true, our best path, if not our only one, remains through the Rust Belt and Arizona. Nuff said. Version: 143 Trump so far is losing the election. Version: 140 Just playing around. Kind of. This map is more possible than even I may think it is. I'm serious too. Version: 138 Best case Democratic scenario. Version: 137 The unemployment rate numbers will sadly help Trump, whether they should or not. I know my fellow Americans all too well. They will buy this hook, line, and sinker. Only reason is because we are reopening way too soon. When COVID starts its 2nd wave, unemployment will skyrocket again, 100 percent certain. Version: 135 As I said before, this is one election that will be lost, not won. Trump is losing it more than Biden is right now. But as we all know by now in USA politics, things are subject to change on a daily basis... Version: 134 Looks like Civil War II, World War III, and Great Depression II, all at the same. exact time. Thanks, Donald Trump. Nikita Khrushchev: "We will bury you from within." No truer words said... Version: 131 According to Gallup, Trump's approval rating is actually up to 51 percent! (????) Sadly, knowing my fellow Americans the way I do, that number certainly is possible, if not likely. We Democrats can easily still lose this thing my friends. Way too many deceived, brainwashed, and "party-first" people in this country. Sad but true. Version: 130 In my opinion how the election shapes of as right now 05/12/2020. Still 50/50 and can easily go either way... Version: 129 With the unemployment rate the highest it's been since the Great Depression, with number II on the way, plus COVID-19 still spiraling of control, 99.9 percent of the time in our past, this would be the map, and I'm probably being generous even then. But that's the past. It's 2020 now, and sadly, I wouldn't count on it this time though, unless Biden hits an absolute grand slam home run with his VP pick. Wait and see as always... Version: 128 The fix is in for Trump it now looks like. Sad but true unfortunately. Version: 127 I think this will be an election that is lost, not won, by either Trump or Biden. The biggest loser as always, is the American people. That said, Biden is much less evil than Trump. Not even a question. Version: 125 My "The fix is in for Trump" map. Yes, I do think we Dems will flip AZ, but still lose the Rust Belt - MN included, plus NH, and ME. It's crazy that we wo;; flip AZ and still lose, but I think that is exactly what will happen as of right now. The Repubs will gladly give us AZ, if they can keep the Rust Belt, flip MN, plus add the Northeastern states of NH and ME. Trump's minions will air the Tara Reade story 24/7, and white evangelicals and most white independents too, will buy it, hook, line and sinker. A 4 million popular vote win for Biden, yet a humiliating defeat in the Electoral College, is my prediction as of right now. The fix is in my friends. Joe Biden getting the Democratic nomination was no accident. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren "losing" was no accident either. IMHO, four more years is a 99.9 percent probability as of right now. I hope and pray I am 100 percent wrong, for both our country's sake, and the world's too.Stick a fork in the USA my friends. We are done. Plain and simple. I just hope and pray to God we don 't drag the rest of the world down with us too... Version: 124 My birthday special. This is the best Democratic scenario. IMHO, this will only happen if Biden has a "grand slam" for a VP pick, and if COVID-19 and the economy are both out of control, really out of control. It's sad that it's only 50/50 even now. I fear the fix is in unfortunately sad to sad, for Trump to be re-elected, with Biden being nominated being part of it. I hope and pray too God for the world's sake, that I am 100 percent wrong as usual.... Version: 123 The whole ball game now depends upon Biden's VP pick... Version: 122 Biden needs a "grand slam" in his VP pick. I think his VP pick in 2020, will be the most important VP pick ever in a presidential election. I'm 100 percent serious too. Also, btw, I think Trump's chances in Wisconsin are grossly overrated. WI is not a white evangelical-rich state, is fairly liberal on social issues, only "middle of the road" economic-wise, and Dems have done very well since Trump took the state in 2016, winning almost every major office, and and turned out huge even with the voting problems due to COVID-19 there in this year's primary. Biden will probably take WI with the correct VP pick. We shall see.... Version: 120 This can still happen, if Biden selects the right VP candidate, and Trump continues to stumble. Don't count on it though. This election is one that won't be won. It will be lost, either by Trump, or by Biden instead. I fear the fix is already in for Trump to be re-elected. Sad but true. Russia is definitely interfering. Only Trump supporters believe otherwise. I think they are definitely helping Biden beat Bernie, because they know Biden is the weaker of the two, and are misleading intelligence into thinking they are helping Bernie instead. The media isn't helping our cause either. I hope and wish to God I'm wrong. Wait and see as always. It's sad that Trump still has a 50/50 chance of winning this thing. I can't see him doing so in a fair election ever, in any country in any era of time, except for the United States of America in 2020. Sad, and definitely not a good look for the good ol' USA. Version: 119 The fix is in. Biden being the nominee instead of Bernie, plus the recent statements and actions by the media and American people, are sadly all I need to know. The coronavirus is actually helping Trump politically. I may even have to flip NV. Possibly even CO, VA, and yes even NM (which was unthinkable just one short month ago) in a worst case situation. Stick a fork in America we're done. The world sadly may be done as well. Sad times. Version: 118 Democratic best case scenario. On a more serious note, regardless of political affiliation, please wish Shelia my galpal, and myself, the very best. We may be both be in extreme danger right now, from her mother of all people, who worships guns. I am definitely worried about her, and also about myself right now. I'm 100 percent serious too. Version: 117 48 percent of the USA is "Trump Country." Sadly, due to the Electoral College, that's all Trump needs to win re-election, and then some. As I feared, the exact opposite of what should be happening is right now. 48 percent of the US population is brainwashed: the 35 percent who are honest about it, and the 13 percent who adhere to the "Bradley Effect" and won't admit it publicly. Sadly, I may have to add Colorado and Virginia to Trump states, perhaps even New Mexico too. Much more brainwashed and deceived people in this country than even I thought, and even I knew it was bad to begin with... Version: 114 If Biden picks the right VP candidate, and we Dems play our cards right, this actually could be the map believe it or not. However, as always with the Democratic Party, I'll have to see it to believe it... Version: 113 I'm hoping the American people won't buy the $2,000 stimulus check rhetoric from President Trump. Sadly, I fear they will though. Hook, line, and sinker. Most Republicans would simply accuse a Democratic president, such as Obama, Clinton, Biden, or Sanders, of "buying votes" if he/she did the same. Sad but true. Version: 111 The coronavirus, much more so than Joe Biden, may be the game changer we Democrats need to dump Trump. That said, it is sad that it may take this to do it. Even so, it's still 50/50. Sigh.... Version: 110 It now looks like Biden will be the nominee. While I support him over Trump of course, I think our chances of winning just got more difficult, it shows how just how much control the establishment still has in this country, it shows you that you must have the black vote to win the Democratic primary nowadays (as 2008, 2012, 2016, and now 2020 have all atested), and name recognition and charisma sadly are still vital in American politics today. To me, that is the reason for Elizabeth Warren's woes, not necessarily her being female. She really is qualified to be president in every other way. Even she and Bernie are no progressives compared to Western Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan. However, I do think the coronavirus may now be a "wild card" in this year's election. In a 50/50 country, Trump even losing a few votes, especially in the Rust Belt, could still cost him re-election. The perception of the economy is still number 1 of course, but this could be the "smoking gun" we Dems desperately needed. It is sad that it has come to this though to get the American people's attention.... Version: 109 The Democratic establishment was the huge winner today. Big time. Unless Bernie resonates more with African-American voters, he won't win the primary, or the general election either. Very disappointing today. I think President Obama's enormous popularity though is the main reason they supported Biden today though. I think the establishment's threats worked too, but this is South Carolina though, and stuff like this resonates big time in the South, probably more so than any other region of the country, among voters of all types. Biden being Obama's VP helps most of all as far as they are concerned IMHO. That tells me Obama is still adored big time by them, in many ways like Trump is among white evangelicals. After today, I don't see any way Bernie can be the nominee. You have to win the black vote in order to do so nowadays. I just don't see it happening. I like to believe otherwise, but I just can't. Looks like 4 more years folks, and probably longer, that is even if we make it through them in the 1st place. Sad. Version: 108 If the Democratic establishment succeeds in stopping Bernie, my prediction is this result. Notice I have both Colorado and Virginia going Republican.... Version: 107 Sanders vs Trump best case scenario map as of 02/24/2020. Wait and see as always. Version: 106 61 percent of Americans say they are better off under Trump huh? Conservatives always question polls, so as a liberal I have to say the same thing: where do they poll these people? Only in the U.S.A. can so many be so gullible to like the economy we have now. This is not "unamerican" as conservatives always love to claim. This is the truth my friends. The dumbing down of this country has worked a lot better than even I ever imagined it would. Sad times. Version: 105 Klobuchar vs Trump I think she would struggle as of 02/15/2020 in the non-Northern swing states, unless she can create the minority-poor white coalition the Dems need to carry those states. So far, she hasn't proven she can do that. But things can and do change in politics daily. However, I do think she'd carry the Rust Belt and probably PA (most definitely the state that would decide it all in this particular scenario as of today), which, as of right now, is all she needs. I'd be careful in NV too if I were her (heavy Latino vote plus a strong white vote out there). Wait and see as always... Version: 104 The "major Trump wave" map, which is sadly more possible right now than the "major Trump loss" map, as of 02/09/2020. Wait and see as always. Version: 103 The most likely Trump victory map scenario, as of 02/08/2020. MN his closest victory. NV (or perhaps ME statewide) his closest loss. Wait and see as always... Version: 102 Believe it or not, I don't know why I'm saying this, but I somehow believe that if everything goes exactly right for us Dems, this will probably be the map. I think it is way more possible than the media and especially "rank and file" Republicans think it is. I think either this particular map will happen, that AZ, WI, PA, MI, and NE-2 will all go Dem, and possibly GA too (believe it or not it is actually more likely than FL and NC which is surprising in itself), in addition to the 2016 Hillary states or the opposite will occur, and we Dems will lose NH and probably MN and ME statewide in addition to the Trump 2016 states. Normally in recent elections, there has been a surprising wave one way or the other no matter what, even in a 50/50 country like ours. In this scenario, AZ is the Dem's closest victory, and GA (perhaps IA but more likely GA instead) our closest loss. NE-2 is razor thin close as well, and almost certainly WI too. WI looks to be razor thin close irregardless of whether Trump wins or loses the state, and perhaps PA too (WI much more likely though I think a Dem can win by a sizable margin in PA). Wait and see as always. Version: 101 Back to the serious stuff. 51 percent of Americans view the GOP favorably. Gallup Poll. Says it all right there. Stick a fork in the USA this country is done... Version: 100 A possible combination if the Iowa and Georgia polls are to believed. I highly doubt it though.... Version: 99 Had to do it... Version: 95 Just being crazy today. Lol. Version: 94 Hate is winning, if it hasn't already won, in the good ol' U.S. of A. :-( Version: 92 Bernie vs Donald. I actually feel that Bernie is one of our strongest general election candidates. A bigger win is possible if he can somehow muster enough minority votes. That is by far the biggest doubt I have about Bernie, whether or not he can resonate with minority voters... Version: 91 Biden vs Trump. Sadly, as of 01/04/2020, it looks like Biden will be our nominee. I think he actually would have blown out Trump in 2016, but the USA is a much different country now. Sad but true... Version: 90 Klobuchar vs. Trump I think she would do well among the white working class in the Rust Belt, but struggle in the South, and among minority voters as well in all regions of the country. This margin could be even larger if she could somehow click with minority voters. Version: 89 Gravel vs. Trump. I think his strongest area would be the West and the Midwest. I think he would struggle in the South. Minority voters could potentially be a problem for Gravel as well... Version: 88 Tulsi Gabbard vs Donald Trump. Gabbard doesn't carry AZ in my honest opinion, unlike Yang, and is not quite as strong, but still, our 2nd strongest general election candidate. I can't believe I'm saying this either, but I'm thinking maybe Buttigieg is the strongest general election candidate of our current leaders as of right now, but I have a feeling that him being gay will sadly hurt him more than the polls are currently indicating. Americans generally are not that accepting of gay candidates, especially in the Bible Belt, even among many usually strong Democratic voters. :-/ Wait and see as always. Version: 87 I said I wouldn't do this, but as always, I was full of crap. I had to do two maps, of Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard. I think these are our two best general election candidates, and the elites on both the Democratic and Republican sides, fear them more than any other candidate, which obviously means they both have an uphill battle, Gabbard especially. I may do a Mike Gravel one as well. He is just like the other two, and he did run in the past two primaries. This is the Yang vs. Trump one. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Yang appears to be our strongest general election candidate as of 12/30/2019. Like I said though, he has an uphill climb unfortunately, and has been linked to the Alt-Right, which in my opinion, is simply an attempt by the "powers that be" to derail his candidacy. Even OH, FL, ME-2, and NE-2 would be possible, maybe even NC and GA, and I would strongly favor Yang even in AZ and IA. He is our best Rust Belt candidate as well. Asian-American candidates generally aren't looked down upon by white working class voters either, again helping Yang. Again, I cannot believe I'm saying this, but Andrew Yang is by far our best general election hope as of right now. Sadly, his chances of winning the primary look slim to none as as of right now, just like Gabbard's, and Gravel's in the primaries he ran in... Version: 82 The GOP has sold its soul. Sadly, they have still somehow managed to con more than enough Americans to obtain and keep control. Sadly, my observations are sadly indicating more and more Americans are still falling for it daily. Sad times. Version: 81 I hope and pray I'm wrong, for the world's sake, much less the United States of America's... Version: 80 Warren vs Trump as of 12/08/2019 Version: 79 Buttigieg vs Trump as of 12/06/2019. I think Buttigieg could do well in the Midwest, but would struggle in the rest of the country. Wait and see as always. Version: 78 Biden vs Trump It looks like a three person race for the Democratic nomination: Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg, even though Buttigieg is definitely the longest shot of the trio as of right now. Biden is the strongest general election candidate, as of right now, but even he has lost some momentum if you will... Version: 77 We have some nuts in this country. Both Republicans and Democrats are guilty too (I have to point a finger at us too). Everyday I view Fakebook, I am reminded of this. No wonder the rest of the world considers the USA a joke. The rest of the world is right. The USA is just that. Sad but true. Version: 76 The USA died 09/11/2001, but was terminally ill decades before then. Version: 75 The USA is a "goner." Case closed. Version: 74 The "Extreme Democratic Loss" scenario. My update "worst case Democratic scenario." I fear this may actually happen - now more than ever. Trump seems to be winning. When he and his supporters "win," we all lose instead. That seems to be happening right now, as much as I hate it... Version: 73 Democratic worst case scenario, which I fear could very well happen because of that dreaded "Bradley Effect." Version: 72 "Make America Christian Again" Sadly, those saying that are the least Christlike of them all. It's always been like this too, not just under Trump. Trump is just the symptom. The illness has been there since George Washington. Case closed. Version: 70 If the presidential election turnout is like the recent gubernatorial results, I can actually see this map happening. The most encouraging sign of course is the increased Democratic turnout, which obviously is bad news for Trump and the Republicans. I think it's probably though the "all politics is local" thing as always. Edwards and Beshear run good campaigns, and of course Bevin was a disaster in KY. Same was true for Jones in AL being a good decent man, with no skeletons in his closet, with Roy Moore being a total and complete disaster. Trump, as loved as his by his fellow Republican voters, couldn't help Moore and Bevin of course, and Rispone in LA either. Manchin ran the same campaign here in WV, where Trump is worshiped, and yet still prevailed. Even Hood did very well in MS as well as a Dem in a statewide election. I think the Republicans are making the same mistake right now, that Democrats always seem to make, in actually tooting Trump's horn too much right now, and not running on their own record, their own policies, and their own accolades. The Dems to my pleasant surprise are running on the economy, and not on social issues, but then again you have to down South in order to beat the GOP down there, in any race. Just like Dems cannot win simply by attacking Trump, the same is true for Republicans in reverse it seems right now. The GOP's candidates cannot win simply with Trump's support alone. That's the main thing I see happening right now. But as always anything can and will change in politics, and does so daily. Wait And See As Always! Version: 69 The Electoral College could go either way, literally. Popular vote: Democrat wins by approx. 3-5 million votes, based on 2016 totals This map is probably generous for us Democrats right now... Version: 68 The most likely Trump loss scenario IMHO, if it is able to happen. I think this election is one that will be lost, not won. Either Trump will blow it, or the Democrats will instead. There will be no "winning" this election, as Trump supporters always love to brag about. Only "losing," even if the Democrat "wins." It's as simple as that. The wealthy attorneys, doctors, and pharmacists control the Democratic Party. They are not much, if any better at all, than the Republicans. I don't know why I'm even bothering. There is a less than 1 percent chance this country will survive, regardless of who loses. The time for change was back then. It didn't happen. It's too late now, unless there is a radical change in this country, and the American people force the issue. Judging from my observations, "not gonna happen." It's as simple as that. Sad but true for a final time. #TheUSAIsDead Version: 67 The "Reverse Bradley Effect" is definitely real, as much as my fellow Dems deny it... Version: 66 My fellow Democrats are in big time denial right now, at least the vast majority of them. Sad times... Version: 63 No "Historic Electoral College Landslide" either way. Dems win popular vote by approximately 3-4.5 million, give or take a few... Version: 62 The most logical Elizabeth Warren victory map, if she is indeed the nominee. Her best bet is the Rust Belt, because I think she would struggle big time in the South. I think Arizona would be tough as well. She needs to improve her numbers in the Northeast too NH and ME especially. I can see her playing surprisingly well in the Great Lakes' States, and surprisingly IA most of all, with a strong white working class I think she can still appeal to. OH though is still a stretch regardless because of that nagging Appalachian influence. We shall see as always. Version: 61 Warren vs Trump. While I like Elizabeth Warren, sadly I don't think she is the kind of Democratic candidate who can resonate enough with both white independents and minority voters at the same time, both types of voters needed to dump Trump. Sad times. :-( Plus, she lacks that "charisma" too which is necessary in American presidential politics. :-( Version: 60 I think this is the best case scenario against Trump as of right now. I think it can change in time, but as of right now, it kind of looks like IA, AZ, and yes even NC are more possible than FL and especially OH right now. Strange times... Version: 59 I'm thinking Arizona is "fool's gold." I could be wrong though. I just hope Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine are "fool's gold" the other way. Sadly, Ohio is lost for the near future, and most likely North Carolina and even worse Florida are too... Version: 58 Back to the "Trump Wins" maps, especially after the typical Atlanta Braves' choke job tonight. It's rough being a Kentucky Wildcats' football and Atlanta Braves' baseball fan... Version: 57 Don't take this seriously my friends. This map would only be possible in a "perfect storm" against Trump, then and only then, where everything possibly good happens for the Dems, and everything possible goes wrong for Trump, and the Dems find someone capable of breaking the "Red Wall," just like Trump kind of did the "Blue Wall." Not gonna happen unless a significant amount of the 48 percent are convinced. Chances of that happening are less than 0.1 percent according to my current observations. I think it could have been possible, if not likely, as late as the early 60s, if not early 70s. Not likely today 2019, and almost certainly not possible either, with the center neutralized and the right and left taking over the country right now. Oddest of all of course is Ohio remaining Republican, even in this scenario. Yes I think OHIO OHIO OHIO is that far gone for us Dems right now. Too much Appalachian influence, especially Kentucky and my home state West "by God" Virginia. I'm 100 percent serious too. Even Pennsylvania is just lean, which is weird too... Version: 55 This is a crazy map, but it's possible right now believe it or not. Still a Trump victory (sad to say) however any way you slice it. :'( Version: 52 Looking bleak right now for both the USA and the world as a whole. Sadly, everybody in the world realizes it but the people who need to the most, my fellow Americans.... Version: 51 We Dems win popular vote by 4 million, but still lose a "Heartbreak Hotel" election thanks to razor-thin losses in Iowa, Wisconsin, <br /> Pennsylvania, Arizona, and New Hampshire. Several other states are close too both ways... Version: 50 I hope and pray I am wrong, for the world's sake. The American people cannot continue pointing the finger at Big Business and our government any longer. We are enabling them, and at least 40 percent of our population (and probably a lot more than that) even endorses their bullcrap. We are 100 percent to blame for our condition. No one else. Just the facts. Trump is not the problem, just the symptom... Version: 48 Warren vs. Trump. She may be weaker in her home area, the Northeast, than I originally thought. If so, beating Trump will be almost impossible. Version: 47 There will be no one who can stop Trump if he is re-elected. Believe it or not, our best, if not only path to victory, is through ARIZONA ARIZONA ARIZONA as of right now. If that is indeed true, I wouldn't count on us Dems winning, especially knowing Arizona's political history... Version: 46 The system is broken, probably forever. :-( Version: 45 Worst case Democratic scenario. Sadly I now think this is actually more plausible than the Trump worst case scenario believe it or not. Again, I hope and pray I'm wrong for both the USA and the world's sake. The Bradley Effect sadly lives on. Version: 44 Hope and pray I am wrong, for the world's sake, much less the USA. Version: 43 This map could occur if the "white-minority voter split" in the USA is even more pronounced than advertised.... Version: 42 I am thinking that this map could actually be possible with increased Hispanic turnout against Trump, if more white conservatives turnout for Trump in return. This would be a difficult one, for us Democrats to lose while flipping Arizona. It could happen too. I don't think it will, but it is more possible than it has ever been before sad to say. Version: 41 I think there is sadly a definite "Reverse Bradley Effect" in play concerning President Trump. I think there are many Trump voters who won't admit they'll vote for him. That's why the polls all have Dems ahead or close. This was true in 2016, and sadly will probably be the case once again in 2020. I hope and pray I am wrong as usual. Version: 40 Warren vs Trump. She may actually pull this Democratic nomination off believe it or not. However, I think in a general election against Trump, I think she would struggle big time outside the Northeast and West Coast, in so-called "Middle America" unfortunately. She doesn't have the necessary "moderate-liberal white + minority coalition," at least of today 08/27/2019, to beat Trump as of right now. Plus, her lack of charisma will hurt her too, unfortunately. We Americans absolutely love our charisma sad to say, even the expense of policy a vast majority of the time. Sad but true. :'( That said, as I've always said before. it's a long way until Election Day. Anything and everything can happen in politics and does so daily. Wait and see as always! Version: 39 Biden vs Trump. Biden is fading fast. :-/ Version: 37 Harris vs Trump Version: 36 Elizabeth Warren victory map. I believe if she wins, it will like this, or something similar to it... Version: 35 Warren vs Trump Version: 33 Worst case Democratic scenario. I don't think Nevada has any shot at all of flipping except in a worst case scenario like this one. Version: 32 Current map as of today 08/18/2019. Not looking good unfortunately... Version: 31 This map would be possible with a strong Democratic candidate. Doesn't look like that's going to happen though. :-( Version: 30 State of the race as of right now. A 4 million vote win in popular vote, but an electoral college loss for us Dems... Version: 29 My best estimate of an electoral map with a viable 3rd party candidate vs Dem vs Trump. This either helps Dems or hurts them in most states, than Republicans. Most white conservatives are solidly Republican, and most minorities solidly Democratic. What a 3rd party does is help the Republicans and Democrats in states with solid base voters, but hurt them in states with many white moderate voters, who are generally far more open to 3rd party voters than either white conservatives or minority voters. For example, this helps Dems in states like FL and AZ of course, and yes even NC, GA, and TX too, where there is a solid minority population, but not enough white conservatives and moderates to overcome that, thus splitting the white vote both Republicans and Democrats. But it actually hurts Democrats in states like WA, OR, MN, WI, NH, and yes possibly even CO and VA. with more of white liberal and especially moderate base, where there are many white liberals I am convinced who are open to voting for a viable 3rd party candidate. VA would be especially interesting since it has all three: a solid white conservative base, a solid minority base, but also many white liberals and moderates in NOVA whom I'm convinced would be open to voting for a viable 3rd party option. PA has all all three demographics as well. The Philly suburbs are a lot like NOVA as well demographic wise. I think the GOP would be hurt in UT though, because Trump is weak for a Republican in Mormon Country to begin with, plus there are many white Mormons whom I think can desperately be persuaded to vote against Trump, and at the same time not have to vote for a liberal Democratic candidate either. An independent only has a chance if they can somehow win over more minority voters than expected, and at the same time peel off more white Republicans and Democrats than expected at the exact same time, which with American politics the way it is now, would be a difficult task indeed. An independent minority candidate who can resonate with both whites and minorities would be the best 3rd party option IMHO. Sadly, no viable 3rd party option is on the way for the U.S. in the forseeable future... Version: 28 We Democrats desperately need a "2020 Democratic Ronald Reagan," and there is none right now. Sad times. Version: 27 Looks like "4 more years" right now unfortunately. We were right about both major parties being in extreme trouble, just wrong about whom was in more trouble. We all thought it was the Republicans. Wrong. We Democrats are in even more trouble than the GOP right now. Even if Hillary had won, the USA still would have been a goner. Trump is just speeding up the process. Sad but true for a final time. The decline has always been there, but really began in earnest with Ronald Reagan. Somehow, he is still considered the "best president" by Americans today, and many consider Obama the worst. Tells you everything you need to know right there... Version: 26 Looks like "4 more years" right now unfortunately. We were right about both major parties being in extreme trouble, just wrong about whom was in more trouble. We all thought it was the Republicans. Wrong. We Democrats are in even more trouble than the GOP right now. Even if Hillary had won, the USA still would have been a goner. Trump is just speeding up the process. Sad but true for a final time. The decline has always been there, but really began in earnest with Ronald Reagan. Somehow, he is still considered the "best president" by Americans today, and many consider Obama the worst. Tells you everything you need to know right there... Version: 25 Biden vs. Trump Even Biden now may be an underdog against Trump. Wait and see as always. Version: 24 Warren vs Trump Yet another loss for us Dems. Sad but true. And she is my favorite Dem candidate too. I just don't think enough white working class Americans outside the Northeast will support her, and not enough minority voters will support her, even against Trump, to overcome that. Sad friends sad. Version: 22 Elizabeth Warren vs Donald Trump She is my number 1 pick for the Democratic nomination, but I'm sadly realistic in that the chances for her winning the nomination are less than 1 percent. She lacks minority appeal too, which is vital for any Dem nominee right now, even though that can still change with time. Even if she does get it, I favor Trump to beat her, because she lacks that all important "charisma," and in the USA, "charisma" is everything. Sad but true for a final time. Right now I only think Biden is favored over Trump, and even him, not by much. Sigh. Version: 21 Pete Buttitieg (spelling sorry) vs Donald Trump another easy win for the Donald. Sigh. Version: 20 Julian Castro vs Donald Trump A weird electoral map indeed. Lol. Version: 19 Elizabeth Warren vs Donald Trump Version: 18 Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump Version: 13 I predict the House resolution against Trump will backfire on us Democrats. Big time. Sigh. Version: 10 This would have been my prediction if Tulsi Gabbard had been the Democratic nominee. She would have been a strong general election candidate against President Trump in my honest opinion. Obviously, this is not going to happen. She has 0 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary. Both parties have shifted to the far sides of their respective bases. The Republicans already have done so, and now the Dems are joining them as well. My early prediction as of July 8, 2019 is Kamala Harris will be our nominee. The Democratic base now is a minority and female based one as of right now, and she is a prime candidate for both camps. Sadly, she lacks the charisma of President Obama. She is a liberal black female version of Trump, except she is at least intelligent enough not to do name calling and go on Twitter 4 and 5 times daily, and doesn't go as far either. I think her prior experience as a prosecutor will hurt her too, especially among independent white voters. Sadly, I think Trump will be solidly favored over her simply for that reason alone. Charisma does matter in the eyes of American voters, whether we like it or not my friends, and more so too independents and Democrats than Republicans according to my observations. I just don't think she has it, unlike President Obama. I could be 100 percent wrong as always though.... Version: 9 Kamala Harris(D) vs. Donald Trump (R) I don't think Harris can beat Trump. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am... Version: 7 I could be wrong, but I did not like what come from the debates. Not at all! Version: 6 Moderate Democratic victory map Version: 5 Democratic candidate best case scenario as of 06/24/2019<br /> <br /> Wait and see as always! Version: 4 Trump best case scenario Version: 3 My first generic 2020 general election scenario map as of 06/19/2019 Version: 2 Reagan vs Trump 2020 Republican primary map. Reagan in red. Trump in blue. My next map will be my first 2020 Trump vs generic Democratic candidate prediction Version: 1 This should raise some eyebrows. Reagan (D) vs. Trump (R) 2020 General Election<I actually have the map in the 2020 colors, instead of the Atlas colors, if y'all are wondering. Of course, Reagan would have a huge advantage obviously, as he definitely resonates with voters more than Trump does. This is a 2020 General Election scenario. Trump would actually do much better in a 2020 Republican primary election, since many if not most Republicans actually prefer him over "the Gipper" believe it or not, especially among southern whites. Never did I dream any Republican would take over Reagan's GOP. However, Trump appears to have just done exactly that. I think Trump would be very weak against the "Great Communicator" in a general election scenario though, in 2020. In let's say another time, it would probably be different. I think the Deep South and Farm Belt would be closer, because Reagan would be somewhat weaker among minorities African-Americans especially than most Democratic candidates, and Trump would still have support among many white evangelicals. However, the Farm Belt weakness is not as huge for Reagan as I originally thought it would be, as Trump seems to be rather weak there too at the present time. However Reagan even wins all of them by a good margin, with the exception of Kentucky, which I think Reagan still takes, but by a whisker due to Trump's enormous strength and popularity in Appalachian eastern KY I think Reagan takes the rest of KY though, especially Lexington and Louisville rather handily, even with his weakness among African-Americans for a Democrat. Only state where I favor Trump over Reagan is my home state of West "by God" Virginia of course (unfortunately), where my fellow West Virginians sadly have seemed to adopt Trump as one of their own, for whatever reason. So much so not even Robert Byrd could beat him here. Yes Trump's that popular here in WV. You have to be to favored over Bob Byrd. Yes that's how much they love President Trump here in WV right now. Plus, Reagan was never really that popular here in WV, never as much so as Trump is here in June 2019. Actually, Ronald Reagan was not a favorite of coal miners here, even though he won in 1984. My next map will be that of a 2020 Republican primary. I actually favor Trump over Reagan there in the Deep South. Then my 1st regular map. It's the "old boring standard 278-260 Democratic victory" one. Only exception is Maine's 2nd district, where I still favor Trump to take it by a slight margin as of today. Whereas in the old one the Dems would still keep ME-2 in their column. To me, the only real states that matter (unfortunately) are WI, MI, PA, FL, and AZ (and it only because of the increased Hispanic influence there), as of right now. Others could in the future, but not likely as of right now. Possibly IA, which could be more important than people think. Trump has problems with family farmers there, and IA is pretty swingy, more so than possibly another state in the country right now. Plus, 47.5 percent just won't vote for the Republican nominee, especially Trump (who will be unless there is major Republican revolution against him which is 99.99 percent not likely to happen) and 47.5 percent won't just vote Democratic nominee right now, even against Trump, except in an extra-ordinary situation. Notice the percentage both for and against each major party has gotten steadily larger, showing the marked increased polarization in American politics in June 2019. I think Reagan would be extra-ordinary of course, but that will never happen of course, for fairly obvious reasons. I think Trump is the underdog, but not by as much as many people think. I think he is still favored in all the 2019 GOP states, for the reason I mentioned above, except the 3 Rust Belt states of course. Even they will be close, with the possible exception of MI, because of the African-American vote in Detroit (they will be more mobilized than they were in 2016). Forget the South except for VA of course, and possibly but not likely FL, at least in 2020. I still think the Rust Belt will be where the election is won and lost, just like 2016. The messenger does matter, and Hillary wasn't the right messenger, at least in the eyes of the swing voters in those 4 close and most important states: WI, PA, MI, and FL. Wait and see as always!
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