No change in the electoral college tally for the week ending August 5th 2020, but the Biden lead has slumped from 9% to 7%, suggesting that Trump is starting to gain ground.

No change in the electoral college tally for the week ending August 5th 2020, but the Biden lead has slumped from 9% to 7%, suggesting that Trump is starting to gain ground.

On average there has been a 0.1% swing to Trump this week, at this rate it would take 32 weeks in order to get to no swing since the last election, there are only 13 weeks left until polling day (indicating a maximum Biden swing of 1.9% to Biden) which would still be enough to see a Biden win.

Based on the most recent RCP average (Biden +8.7%) and using less than 5% = toss up and 5% to 10% = lean guidance

Now basing it on the results from 2016, the GOP have a lead of 34

All states labelled as Independent are states that I believe are "in play", all other states labelled as the party whose views are most represented by those states (either left wing or right wing). Based on this the Dems enter the election with a electoral college lead of seven

Just postulating on the idea of Sanders running as an Independent

This has all the hallmarks of a Trump landslide (and start calls for the abolition of Presidential Term Limits)

If the Democrats do indeed nominate Sanders as their candidate, I see nothing preventing a Trump re-election, indeed he could even pick up a couple of states (especially those with centrist populations)

Given that Sanders won New Hampshire, I have a feeling that the DNC may be getting itchy feet and having been denied the nomination once, I would not put it past Sanders to declare as an Independent candidate.

Maine flips completely to Trump, solid Dem states lean Dem

Just the one change, New Hampshire votes Trump

I have seen no evidence up to this moment in time (01-18-20) to show that Trump is losing any of his base.