PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - Lakigigar (C-BEL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-10-09 Version:9

Prediction Map
Lakigigar MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Lakigigar MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem279
 
Rep259
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep122
 
Ind0
 
Tos194
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+3+1+47000211232+47
Rep000-3-1-47273259-47
Ind0000000000


Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 4

Moved WI to >50% and GA to <50% in the R column. No further changes. Will change it when we know the nominee.


Version: 3

I became more optimistic about the Democrat's chances in 2020, but I'm not really sure who will actually win. I'll update my prediction when we're likely to know the D nominee. When Biden wins, i'll move AZ, WI and MI likely and maybe GA, FL in the D column. If Warren wins, i'll keep it something like this for now.


Version: 2

Rural / Suburban + Urban divide growing further. Leaning towards Trump getting re-elected now, but really not sure. I have the feeling Minnesota (and Michigan again) would be the surprise state in 2020, while Maine stays Dem because IRV. Could change it a hundred times though. I think there's still room for Trump to expand in the Rust Belt, and that he'll have a good last year. It's feel like this is going to be 2012 but in reverse. Or some kind of disappointing 2004 for the Democrats. I think Biden or Warren will be the nominee, with the Dems nominating someone from Texas as their VP. I also feel like 2024 will be the year where De Santis (or Haley, Scott, Cruz or Pence but Pence will be the Biden of this year) will face Gretchen Whitmer, and that Whitmer will be the first female president of the USA.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 35/35 24/35 59/70 84.3% pie 2 11 4T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 19/36 52/72 72.2% pie 1 51 189T372
P 2016 President 52/56 32/56 84/112 75.0% pie 1 38 87T678
Aggregate Predictions 120/127 75/127 195/254 76.8% pie


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