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Date of Prediction: 2020-10-22 Version:21

Prediction Map
Forumlurker161 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Forumlurker161 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain


Changed to reflect the extremely horrible early voting trends.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 20

10/21 (Likely final)<br /> The race will be closer than anyone expected on Atlas.<br /> Biden will sweep New England and get large swings up there. However, it won’t be enough to flip Me-2 which will remain close.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will all flip blue (red on here) but by narrower margins than expected. Biden will only win by 3% in Michigan, and will just barely clear 50% total in WI and PA. MN is also going to core about the same as WI this cycle.<br /> <br /> Ohio and Iowa both will be closer than 2016, but it won’t be enough for a Biden win in either.<br /> <br /> North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida all will be within two percent, but will all go to Trump.<br /> <br /> Texas will vote for Trump with a 4% margin, likely around 50-46.<br /> <br /> NE-02 will swing heavily left, and will vote for Biden by high single digits.<br /> <br /> AZ and NV will vote similarity, with NV being a couple of points more Democratic than AZ. Biden will narrowly pull through in AZ, but this race will take weeks to call.<br /> <br />

Version: 10

4/29/20: Biden will underperform heavily with Latinos if he doesn’t pick a Latino VP. This will keep Arizona narrowly blue (even though he will improve with suburban voters) will make Texas more out of reach, and will hurt his margins in Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida. Speaking of which, Biden will win Florida due to a swing among older voters, and Amash stealing voters from otherwise Cuban-Trump voters in Miami. Also Biden will improve in the Miami-Orlando-Jacksonville suburbs.<br /> Michigan will narrowly stay blue because of both Amash stealing Biden-GR voters, and because Biden will neglect the State relative to the other swing states. <br /> North Carolina will be the closest State, but Biden’s improvement with Black voters, outrage against the NC GOP, and a tiny but noticeably Cooper effect will allow Biden to win the State by a few thousand votes.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422

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