PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - Forumlurker161 (I-CO) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2020-10-22 Version:21

Prediction Map
Forumlurker161 MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Forumlurker161 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem263
 
Rep275
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem222
 
Rep233
 
Ind0
 
Tos83
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+2+1+31000211232+31
Rep000-2-1-31283275-31
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Changed to reflect the extremely horrible early voting trends.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 20

10/21 (Likely final)<br /> The race will be closer than anyone expected on Atlas.<br /> Biden will sweep New England and get large swings up there. However, it won’t be enough to flip Me-2 which will remain close.<br /> <br /> Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will all flip blue (red on here) but by narrower margins than expected. Biden will only win by 3% in Michigan, and will just barely clear 50% total in WI and PA. MN is also going to core about the same as WI this cycle.<br /> <br /> Ohio and Iowa both will be closer than 2016, but it won’t be enough for a Biden win in either.<br /> <br /> North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida all will be within two percent, but will all go to Trump.<br /> <br /> Texas will vote for Trump with a 4% margin, likely around 50-46.<br /> <br /> NE-02 will swing heavily left, and will vote for Biden by high single digits.<br /> <br /> AZ and NV will vote similarity, with NV being a couple of points more Democratic than AZ. Biden will narrowly pull through in AZ, but this race will take weeks to call.<br /> <br />


Version: 10

4/29/20: Biden will underperform heavily with Latinos if he doesn’t pick a Latino VP. This will keep Arizona narrowly blue (even though he will improve with suburban voters) will make Texas more out of reach, and will hurt his margins in Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida. Speaking of which, Biden will win Florida due to a swing among older voters, and Amash stealing voters from otherwise Cuban-Trump voters in Miami. Also Biden will improve in the Miami-Orlando-Jacksonville suburbs.<br /> Michigan will narrowly stay blue because of both Amash stealing Biden-GR voters, and because Biden will neglect the State relative to the other swing states. <br /> North Carolina will be the closest State, but Biden’s improvement with Black voters, outrage against the NC GOP, and a tiny but noticeably Cooper effect will allow Biden to win the State by a few thousand votes.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2020 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved