|
Date of Prediction: 2020-10-25 Version:125
Prediction Map
Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
No Analysis Entered
Prediction History
Comments History
- hide
Version: 133 ALABAMA - Trump 60%, Biden 35%, R +25 <br /> ALASKA - Trump 55%, Biden 41%, R +14<br /> ARIZONA - Trump 49%, Biden 46%, R +3<br /> ARKANSAS - Trump 59%, Biden 35%, R +24<br /> CALIFORNIA - Biden 63%, Trump 31%, D +32<br /> COLORADO - Biden 50%, Trump 42%, D +8<br /> CONNECTICUT - Biden 55%, Trump 39%, D +14<br /> DELAWARE - Biden 61%, Trump 37%, D +24<br /> DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA - Biden 92%, Trump 6%, D +86<br /> FLORIDA - Trump 49%, Biden 47%, R +2<br /> GEORGIA - Trump 50%, Biden 46.5%, R +3.5<br /> HAWAII - Biden 63%, Trump 32%, D +31<br /> IDAHO - Trump 60%, Biden 34%, R +26<br /> ILLINOIS - Biden 55%, Trump 38%, D +17<br /> INDIANA - Trump 56%, Biden 39%, R +17<br /> IOWA - Trump 50%, Biden 45%, R +5<br /> KANSAS - Trump 57%, Biden 42%, R +15<br /> KENTUCKY - Trump 61%, Biden 37%, R +24<br /> LOUISIANA - Trump 57%, Biden 39%, R +18<br /> MAINE - Biden 51%, Trump 45%, D +6<br /> MAINE-01 - Biden 53%, Trump 39%, D +14<br /> MAINE-02 - Trump 50%, Biden 46%, R +4<br /> MARYLAND - Biden 65%, Trump 32% D +33<br /> MASSACHUSETTS - Biden 65%, Trump 31% D +34<br /> MICHIGAN - Trump 48%, Biden 47% R +1<br /> MINNESOTA - Biden 49%, Trump 46.5% D +2.5<br /> MISSISSIPPI - Trump 56%, Biden 41%, R +15<br /> MISSOURI - Trump 53%, Biden 43%, R +10<br /> MONTANA - Trump 55%, Biden 42%, R +13<br /> NEBRASKA - Trump 60%, Biden 38%, R +22<br /> NEBRASKA-01 - Trump 58%, Biden 41%, R +17<br /> NEBRASKA-02 - Trump 49%, Biden 47%, R +2<br /> NEBRASKA-03 - Trump 73%, Biden 26%, R +47<br /> NEVADA - Biden 47%, Trump 45%, D +2<br /> NEW HAMPSHIRE - Biden 50%, Trump 46%, D +4<br /> NEW JERSEY - Biden 57%, Trump 40%, D +17<br /> NEW MEXICO - Biden 52%, Trump 42%, D +10<br /> NEW YORK - Biden 60%, Trump 38%, D +19<br /> NORTH CAROLINA - Trump 50%, Biden 47%, R +3<br /> NORTH DAKOTA - Trump 62%, Biden 35%, R +27<br /> OHIO - Trump 50%, Biden 46%, R +4<br /> OKLAHOMA - Trump 64%, Biden 34%, R +30<br /> OREGON - Biden 54%, Trump 40%, D +14<br /> PENNSYLVANIA - Biden 49%, Trump 48%, D +1<br /> RHODE ISLAND - Biden 61%, Trump 37%, D +24 <br /> SOUTH CAROLINA - Trump 54%, Biden 42%, R +12<br /> SOUTH DAKOTA - Trump 59%, Biden 37%, R +22<br /> TENNESSEE - Trump 60%, Biden 36%, R +24<br /> TEXAS - Trump 50%, Biden 45%, R +5<br /> UTAH - Trump 55%, Biden 36%, R +19<br /> VERMONT - Biden 60%, Trump 33% D +27<br /> VIRGINIA - Biden 51%, Trump 44%, D +7<br /> WASHINGTON - Biden 58%, Trump 38%, D +20<br /> WEST VIRGINIA - Trump 65%, Biden 32%, R +33<br /> WISCONSIN - Trump 49%, Biden 47%, R +2<br /> WYOMING - Trump 66%, Biden 30%, R +36 Version: 113 Things not looking good for Trump after I thought Pence lost the VP debate to Harris. Version: 110 Expect President Trump to receive a post-COVID diagnosis bump. Version: 80 Trump/Pence vs Biden/Harris Version: 77 Trump/Pence vs Biden/Whitmer Version: 69 Biden will struggle to win NV and FL if he remains at 60% with Hispanic voters especially if turnout is low overall.<br /> <br /> Trump is beginning to rebound slightly. Version: 66 Trump needs to slow the coronavirus or he risks losing retirees in FL. His polling looks like it is improving in AZ and state trends favor him there. A split Rust Belt favors him as well. It will become increasingly difficult for him to win over college educated voters. Trump has to hope for lower turnout across the board even among minorities and an increase in non college voter support to win. He needs to cut into Biden's lead to tighten things up by Labor Day or risks losing his re-election bid. Version: 60 Biden marginally improves over Clinton's margin. I expect there not to be a second wave of COVID and for the economy to recover significantly by election day. There probably will be some sort of October surprise helping Trump. Biden also will fail to withstand the media's onslaught. Version: 56 Trump going to rebound due to being "law and order" candidate to calm race riots due to death of George Floyd. <br /> <br /> Biden is consistently polling lower than Clinton at 47%. Version: 46 Trump down in polling due to overexposure in the media through his COVID briefings and misstatements. Needs to rebound ASAP. Version: 28 Sanders/Sinema defeats Trump/Pence. <br /> <br /> Sanders 51%, Trump 47% Version: 20 Trump leads Sanders in most battleground states:<br /> <br /> Projections-<br /> <br /> AZ: Trump 51-46<br /> CO: Sanders 52-45<br /> IA: Trump 51-45<br /> GA: Trump 52-45<br /> NC: Trump 51-46<br /> NH: Sanders 52-46<br /> NV: Sanders 51-47<br /> MI: Trump 51-48<br /> ME: Sanders 55-45<br /> MN: Sanders 50-47<br /> OH: Trump 53-44<br /> PA: Trump 50-48<br /> TX: Trump 54-43<br /> VA: Trump 50-49<br /> WI: Trump 52-47<br /> Version: 19 Trump 50%, Sanders 48% Version: 18 Sanders 50<br />rnTrump 47 Version: 15 An optimistic Buttigieg vs Trump scenario Version: 11 Trump 48%, Warren 49%<br /> <br /> Warren struggles with the diverse electorates in VA, NV but selects a runningmate to compensate for the weakness.<br /> <br /> Trump maxes out margins in rural areas in states like MN, WI, MI, PA. He retains his margin with independents and wins over blue-collar voters again.<br /> <br /> Warren does best with women, college-educateds, and older voters. Version: 10 Trump v Warren Version: 9 Trump vs Biden Version: 8 Trump trounces everyone but Biden. Version: 3 Harris vs Trump.<br />rn<br />rnA spike in AA turnout delivers the Midwest back to the Dems. Version: 2 Biden vs Trump - Biden is able to win back PA due to performing better with blue collar workers around Scranton. However, he still struggles to energize the AA community and suffers from depressed turnout to fall short.
Version History Member Comments User's Predictions
Links
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2024 President
2023 Governor
2022 Senate
2022 Governor
2021 Governor
2020 President
2020 Senate
2020 Governor
2019 Governor
2018 Senate
2018 Governor
2017 Governor
2016 President
2016 Senate
2016 Governor
2015 Governor
Back to 2020 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home