Date of Prediction: 2019-08-23 Version:2
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Analysis
First real prediction of the 2020 cycle, rather than the previous simulation. I see the Democrats as being favored to win the presidency next November, but with a fairly large range of possible outcomes, particularly given the uncertainty in the economy. I went back and forth on whether or not I should have Texas as a tossup, but I've seen enough suggesting that the state will at least be close that I ultimately decided it should be classified that way. Not really taking possible Democratic nominees into account for the predictions just yet, but honestly I'm not sure the nominee is going to make much of a difference given how strongly polarized opinions of the current president are.
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