PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-08-23 Version:2

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem305
 
Rep233
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem232
 
Rep125
 
Ind0
 
Tos181
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+5+1+73000211232+73
Rep000-5-1-73253233-73
Ind0000000000


Analysis

First real prediction of the 2020 cycle, rather than the previous simulation. I see the Democrats as being favored to win the presidency next November, but with a fairly large range of possible outcomes, particularly given the uncertainty in the economy. I went back and forth on whether or not I should have Texas as a tossup, but I've seen enough suggesting that the state will at least be close that I ultimately decided it should be classified that way. Not really taking possible Democratic nominees into account for the predictions just yet, but honestly I'm not sure the nominee is going to make much of a difference given how strongly polarized opinions of the current president are.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2024 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 238
P 2022 Senate 32/35 25/35 57/70 81.4% pie 6 1 124T305
P 2022 Governor 34/36 29/36 63/72 87.5% pie 6 1 11T272
P 2020 President 52/56 39/56 91/112 81.3% pie 18 6 359T684
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 589/649 421/649 1010/1298 77.8% pie


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