Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:3
Prediction Map Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 112)
Analysis
11/2/2020: Final map. Biden has maintained a steady lead. Despite the media narrative, he is safe in Pennsylvania (absent any shenanigans, of course). Biden will win Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, but probably fall short in Texas and Ohio. But that Texas is a tossup is a boon for Democrats--that is resources (time, $$) that could not be spent in the midwest. If there are any surprises, it would be GOP edging it out Florida (like 2018), and/or the Democrats taking Texas and/or Ohio. This may be the last election where the GOP wins Texas; I think that, going forward, Democrats should be more optimistic about Texas than Florida.
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 2 10/6/20: One month out. Biden seems to have stabilized all Clinton states plus the three "blue wall" states(Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). As of today, Biden leads all swing states except Iowa and Texas. Version: 1 4/27/2020: Biden 335, Trump 203. This is a popular choice. Polls seem to show consistent leads for Biden in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump should still be seen as slight favorite in Georgia and Texas.
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