PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - ground_x (D-NY) ResultsPolls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2020-11-02 Version:3

Prediction Map
ground_x MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
ground_x MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem351
 
Rep187
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem279
 
Rep125
 
Ind0
 
Tos134
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+7+2+119000211232+119
Rep000-7-2-119232187-119
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

ScoreState WinsState PercentagesCD WinsCD Percentages
91493642
piepiepiepiepie

Analysis

11/2/2020: Final map. Biden has maintained a steady lead. Despite the media narrative, he is safe in Pennsylvania (absent any shenanigans, of course). Biden will win Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia, but probably fall short in Texas and Ohio. But that Texas is a tossup is a boon for Democrats--that is resources (time, $$) that could not be spent in the midwest. If there are any surprises, it would be GOP edging it out Florida (like 2018), and/or the Democrats taking Texas and/or Ohio. This may be the last election where the GOP wins Texas; I think that, going forward, Democrats should be more optimistic about Texas than Florida.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 2

10/6/20: One month out. Biden seems to have stabilized all Clinton states plus the three "blue wall" states(Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin). As of today, Biden leads all swing states except Iowa and Texas.


Version: 1

4/27/2020: Biden 335, Trump 203. This is a popular choice. Polls seem to show consistent leads for Biden in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump should still be seen as slight favorite in Georgia and Texas.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 35/35 30/35 65/70 92.9% pie 1 0 3T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 28/36 63/72 87.5% pie 1 0 11T272
P 2020 President 53/56 38/56 91/112 81.3% pie 3 6 359T684
P 2020 Senate 32/35 19/35 51/70 72.9% pie 1 4 241T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 1 5 10T293
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 6 0 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 26/36 58/72 80.6% pie 5 2 56T372
P 2016 President 50/56 30/56 80/112 71.4% pie 8 0 246T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 4 0 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 3/12 12/24 50.0% pie 2 0 164T279
P 2014 Senate 31/36 22/36 53/72 73.6% pie 5 0 158T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 3 1 145T300
P 2012 President 55/56 43/56 98/112 87.5% pie 8 1 182T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 20/33 51/66 77.3% pie 6 1 94T343
P 2012 Governor 11/11 8/11 19/22 86.4% pie 2 1 5T228
P 2010 Senate 35/37 22/37 57/74 77.0% pie 3 0 100T456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 23/37 57/74 77.0% pie 2 1 91T312
P 2008 President 52/56 41/56 93/112 83.0% pie 7 0 139T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 18/33 51/66 77.3% pie 1 0 96T407
P 2008 Dem Primary 31/52 14/52 45/104 43.3% pie 2 - 85T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 14/49 5/49 19/98 19.4% pie 1 - 162T235
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 19/33 52/66 78.8% pie 4 0 113T465
P 2006 Governor 35/36 16/36 51/72 70.8% pie 3 0 122T312
P 2004 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 30 2 14T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 798/907 531/907 1329/1814 73.3% pie


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2020 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved