Election day is close enough to make South Carolina and Montana Safe R. Iowa is Lean R after the latest Selzer poll. Tipping point is most likely Pennsylvania. I expect Biden to win the PV by 6-8 points. This is probably my penultimate prediction.

I'll believe blue Texas when I see it. Montana is Likely R.

Iowa is now a tossup based on recent polling.

Just realized that ME-02 cannot be won with a plurality due to IRV. Recent SC polls show a close race, but I have taken them with a grain of salt. SC is Likely R.

From this point on, lean means lean or likely since there is no option for likely confidence here. Alaska is Likely R.

I'm not sure which states will be won with a plurality. I think that Arizona could vote to the left of Wisconsin. ME-02 seems to be more competitive than previously thought. Perhaps Maine could be moved to Strong Dem, but I would rather wait for more polls.

I am ready to flip Florida to Biden. This is the most stable presidential election in recent history. It seems that everyone has made up their mind on Trump, and there is a dwindling chance for Trump to turn the race around. Biden has been leading in most Florida polls, partly due to his strength with seniors.

Georgia is a tossup.

Looking at some recent polling, Colorado, Michigan, and NE-02 seem more friendly to Biden than before. I don't expect there to be a major third-party presence this election, so only a few states are highlighted with the >40% shade. I have the least confidence in Florida. Although Trump initially seemed in that state, Biden's strength with seniors is helping him there, and this is supported by polling. Consider Florida a "super tossup." I expect Biden to win the popular vote in the mid-single digits. While current national polling suggests that Biden could win by more than that, I will assume that partisan loyalties will narrow his lead a bit. That's not to say that there are events that could move the election in Biden's favor, such as young undecided voters supporting him. The two main things to keep track of this cycle are the coronavirus and the economy. Trump will have to prevent a second wave in the fall. The current unemployment rate is very high, probably over 20%. While this will decrease by election day as the economy recovers, it will still be high, possible over 10%. It remains to be seen if Biden can build a strong enough message to convince voters that Trump failed to minimize the spread of the coronavirus and contributed to the downturn.

Bold prediction. I am assuming that economic conditions will be bad in November.

Now that it looks like Biden will be the nominee, I am comfortable with making Virginia strong confidence. I have also updated the percentages for the first time in a while.

At this point, it seems extremely likely that Sanders will be the nominee. I have made a few adjustments, but did not flip any states from the last election. Virginia is now a tossup, and New Hampshire is now Lean D. I believe that Sanders will win the popular vote by around 1%, closer than in 2016. This is due to the strong economy that helps Trump's reelection chances. However, Democratic trends in California and Texas prevent Trump from outright winning the popular vote.

Looking back from September, this has not aged well. I was mainly basing my ratings based on Trump approval ratings instead of head-to-head polls and it seemed that Trump was relatively popular in the South. I was also anticipating the possibility of a Sanders nomination.