I tightened it a bit towards Trump, but not enough for him to have a chance if I'm right.

Minor modifications since last prediction.

A bit better for Trump than my last prediction but still predicting a solid Biden victory.

Updating Maine to take into consideration the effect of ranked choice voting on the outcome.

Mild change from my last prediction based on gut feeling rather than detailed analysis.

Wisconsin was improved for Biden because of today's Republican short-sightedness.

Between the economy and COVFEFE-19, I think Trump gets dinged a bit more than I thought before, but this is still very much a placeholder prediction. A lot can change between now and November and its even less predictable than usual this far out.

The reaction to Trump's attempted joke concerning the late Rep. Dingle causes me to move Michigan from Tossup to Lean D.

Prediction 2 has a slightly larger R->D shift combined with removing any McMullin 2.0-style candidacy. Still essentially a placeholder prediction until we have an idea of who will be the Democratic nominee.

Initial prediction is based on a 2% uniform shift R->D and will serve until the Democratic nomination is certain and we begin to get polls for the actual contest and for individual States.