Pennsylvania is odd... Trump is surging there. Candidates with clear momentum heading into election day tend to beat their polling average by 2-3 points. Maybe because averages don't have enough time to adjust? Maybe for other reasons. Either way, going by momentum, Trump should win. But Pennsylvania is so wildly different from what we would expect based off national polls, that I still have Biden winning overall.<br /> <br /> Michigan is also an anomaly, but Trump is eve further behind there. He should lose despite his surge.