Predictions2020 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-10-23 Version:3

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep227
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem232
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos143
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+6+1+79000211232+79
Rep000-6-1-79243227-79
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Spent some time earlier today going over what limited state-by-state presidential approval polling I could find and decided to use that to refine my prediction here. While obviously approval polling isn't going to match up exactly to voting outcomes, I think it should correlate reasonably well with the order in which states may flip. As such, I've switched Iowa to Democratic, and have also moved Texas from Tosssup - which was a characterization I was never entirely comfortable with on the last map - to Lean Republican. There are also a few other minor percentage changes that I've made, but honestly at this early stage it's probably not worth going into detail on any of those.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 2

First real prediction of the 2020 cycle, rather than the previous simulation. I see the Democrats as being favored to win the presidency next November, but with a fairly large range of possible outcomes, particularly given the uncertainty in the economy. I went back and forth on whether or not I should have Texas as a tossup, but I've seen enough suggesting that the state will at least be close that I ultimately decided it should be classified that way. Not really taking possible Democratic nominees into account for the predictions just yet, but honestly I'm not sure the nominee is going to make much of a difference given how strongly polarized opinions of the current president are.


Version: 1

Am I doing this again? I guess I'm doing this again. Not so much a formal prediction to start off, just the outcome of a spreadsheet simulation I've set up based on a chosen hypothetical national popular vote outcome of D 53%, R 45%. Two uniform national swings producing the same final national 2020 margin are applied to each state relative to the 2016 and 2012 results, these are then averaged together at 80-20 weighting (which I think is more likely to be predictive than the 50-50 weighting that PVI uses), and finally the result in each state is adjusted by a randomly generated number. I'll do more thought-out predictions later once we have more information to go off of, but this feels like a good enough placeholder for now.


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 266
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie


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