Predictions2020 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) Polls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-05-23 Version:7

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem334
 
Rep204
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem268
 
Rep187
 
Ind0
 
Tos83
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+6+1+102000211232+102
Rep000-6-1-102243204-102
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Decided to go ahead with the plan to increase update frequency, as there has been significantly more state polling this month than there was in April. As the coronavirus pandemic continues, it appears to making a bit more of an impact than it did previously, with Donald Trump's disapproval on handling the pandemic approaching 60% and numerous polls showing Joe Biden's national and state leads expanding. While I think there could be some reversion toward the earlier numbers later in the year, the change seems significant enough that I am at least partially taking it into account. This results in the most important change on the map, with Pennsylvania now in the Lean Democratic category, thus bringing Joe Biden to just shy of 270 electoral votes with confidence better than Tossup. Additionally, I was very tempted to move Texas into the Tossup category due to several recent polls there showing a close race, but given that state's consistent Republican voting record over the last few decades, I ultimately decided against doing so at this time. I will be keeping a close eye on Texas polling however, and if I don't see any reversion toward its historical mean in the next two or three months I may eventually make that change. Finally, there is one development in Donald Trump's favor on this map, as I have reluctantly concluded that Iowa should for now be classified as a Lean Republican state, based upon recent polling.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 412
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie


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