Predictions2020 Presidential Predictions - darthpi (D-PA) Polls
Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.
Date of Prediction: 2019-10-23 Version:3

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem311
 
Rep227
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem232
 
Rep163
 
Ind0
 
Tos143
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+6+1+79000211232+79
Rep000-6-1-79243227-79
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Spent some time earlier today going over what limited state-by-state presidential approval polling I could find and decided to use that to refine my prediction here. While obviously approval polling isn't going to match up exactly to voting outcomes, I think it should correlate reasonably well with the order in which states may flip. As such, I've switched Iowa to Democratic, and have also moved Texas from Tosssup - which was a characterization I was never entirely comfortable with on the last map - to Lean Republican. There are also a few other minor percentage changes that I've made, but honestly at this early stage it's probably not worth going into detail on any of those.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 250
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie


Alabama Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Alaska Arizona Arkansas California California California California Colorado Connecticut Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Maryland Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York New York North Carolina North Dakota Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Virginia Washington Washington Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wisconsin Wyoming

Back to 2020 Presidential Prediction Home - Predictions Home


Terms of Use - DCMA Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC 2019 All Rights Reserved