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Date of Prediction: 2020-10-25 Version:16

Prediction Map
darthpi MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
darthpi MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain


Nine days until the election, and I have made some major changes for this map. Most notably from both an electoral vote perspective as well as a historical perspective is - unquestionably - the decision to switch Texas to Joe Biden. As I already explained on my last map, this is a state where I think Biden has an above average chance to beat his polls, given the rapid population growth there, and given what is without question going to be a record breaking voter turnout there: several large counties that have seen drastic Democratic gains in recent years either will or already have had their early vote this year exceed the *total* vote from 2016. Additionally, Biden has now moved into an exact tie in the polling average in Texas (as calculated by FiveThirtyEight), and we are close enough to election day that I feel the risk of a reversion to the historical mean is low enough that I am comfortable making the switch - though to be clear Texas still remains very much a Tossup. The second most important change is probably the shift of North Carolina from Tossup to Lean Biden, giving Biden a bit of insurance in case the polls end up being off in one or several other states. The other two significant changes for this map are the moves of Iowa to Biden and Ohio to Trump, though those states have looked like pure coin flips for a while now and I don't see much need to elaborate on either. I did contemplate moving Florida to Tossup, based on the shifts we have seen in the polling averages there, but upon further review of exactly why those averages have moved - a few clearly partisan Republican pollsters have been dumping outlier polls that are highly suspect, at least one of which (Trafalgar) appears to perhaps just be choosing a desired outcome in advance and then unscientifically adjusting their data to force such outcome - I ultimately decided against doing so. Finally, from an overall national perspective, it is clear that this election remains one in which Joe Biden has a substantial advantage both nationwide and in the tipping point states (probably in the neighborhood of a 9-10% lead nationally, and 6-7% in the states likely to decide the election), and time is rapidly running out for anything to change that. The debates are over, more people have voted early than ever before, and - as I have been hammering for months now - the Coronavirus pandemic remains the single most important news story in the country, especially now with new cases spiking to record daily totals yet again (over 80,000 new cases each of the last two days). While it is always possible that the polls could simply be wrong, the significantly lower number of undecided and third party voters this year relative to 2016 suggests that a large enough polling miss to actually result in an electoral upset is quite unlikely at this point.

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User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 590
P 2018 Senate 32/35 23/35 55/70 78.6% pie 26 1 67T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 23/36 55/72 76.4% pie 26 3 122T372
P 2016 President 51/56 33/56 84/112 75.0% pie 37 1 87T678
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 11 4 21T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 17/36 48/72 66.7% pie 6 3 73T300
P 2012 President 56/56 45/56 101/112 90.2% pie 30 1 77T760
P 2012 Senate 32/33 22/33 54/66 81.8% pie 7 1 40T343
P 2012 Rep Primary 45/52 19/52 64/104 61.5% pie 42 - 25T231
P 2010 Senate 35/37 30/37 65/74 87.8% pie 26 1 5456
P 2010 Governor 34/37 27/37 61/74 82.4% pie 6 1 29T312
P 2008 President 52/56 44/56 96/112 85.7% pie 19 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Dem Primary 37/52 19/52 56/104 53.8% pie 15 - 58T271
Aggregate Predictions 471/522 328/522 799/1044 76.5% pie

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