Election 2020 Presidential Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-03 Version:7

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	223
Rep	315
Ind	0

Confidence States Won

		270 \|	538 \|
Dem	212
Rep	230
Ind	0
Tos	96

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV	ST	CD	EV
Dem	0	+1	+1	-1	0	-10	20	1	222	-9
Rep	+1	0	+10	0	-1	-1	30	3	305	+9
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages	CD Wins	CD Percentages
89	45	37	5	2

Analysis

FINAL PREDICTION! Nevada and NH stay a squeak over to Biden. Minnesota goes slightly over to Trump. How was this figured out? 10.1% of Trump supporters lie about their support for Trump in polls and 5.1% of Biden supporters lie about their support for Biden in polls. This equals a net +10% bump in support for trump. Then I took a look at 2016 polling error in each state and also the polling error between conventional polls and Trafalgar and Insider Advantage in 2020 to come up with a unique percentage bump of support for Shy Trump Voters. Some states with large polling errors like MI, WI, WV, get more of a bump then states with a negative polling error like CA, NY.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	50/56	39/56	89/112	79.5%	7	5	434	T	684
2016 President	50/56	34/56	84/112	75.0%	3	0	87	T	678
2012 President	55/56	45/56	100/112	89.3%	2	0	115	T	760
Aggregate Predictions	155/168	118/168	273/336	81.3%

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