PredictionsMock2020 Presidential Predictions - Sorenroy (D-NC) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-11-03 Version:15

Prediction Map
Sorenroy MapPrediction Key

Confidence Map
Sorenroy MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem335
 
Rep203
 
Ind0
 
 

Confidence States Won
270 |
538 |
pie
Dem258
 
Rep125
 
Ind0
 
Tos155
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
ST CD EV ST CD EV ST CD EV
Dem+6+1+103000211232+103
Rep000-6-1-103243203-103
Ind0000000000


Analysis

Final prediction. There are a lot of states that straddle the line between two levels of popular vote. Georgia is 50.01% Biden, Nebraska's Second Congressional District is 49.97% Biden, North Carolina is 50.002% Trump, Oregon is 59.98% Biden, and Wyoming is 70.01% Trump. All of my predictions were made based on 538's model but adjusted based on their model's errors in 2012 and 2016. Something that I should have done but just didn't have the time or energy to do was adjust for errors in their percentage of the third party vote.<br /> <br /> Lean Biden overall, he wins 53.3% to 45.4%.<br /> <br /> Closest States:<br /> Arizona goes 49.7% to 49.0% Biden.<br /> Florida goes 50.6% to 48.7% Biden.<br /> Georgia goes 50.0% to 49.2% Biden.<br /> Iowa goes 51.0% to 47.4% Trump.<br /> ME-02 goes 50.6% to 47.8% Trump.<br /> NE-02 goes 50.0% to 48.8% Biden.<br /> North Carolina goes 50.0% to 49.3% Trump.<br /> Ohio goes 51.6% to 47.4% Trump.<br /> Pennsylvania goes 50.7% to 48.6% Biden.<br /> Texas goes 50.1% to 49.0% Trump.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


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Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2018 Senate 32/35 25/35 57/70 81.4% pie 3 1 24T483
P 2018 Governor 33/36 28/36 61/72 84.7% pie 2 3 6T372
P 2016 President 49/56 30/56 79/112 70.5% pie 25 1 280T678
P 2016 Senate 32/34 21/34 53/68 77.9% pie 4 0 16T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 7/12 16/24 66.7% pie 7 0 25T279
Aggregate Predictions 155/173 111/173 266/346 76.9% pie


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